I still see many people still calling crypto a bubble and thus it is unsustainable. I mean the price rise looks pretty crazy...
The same with tech stocks and their "overvaluation"....
I remember personally saying the same about Amazon, pretty much since inception.
But I didn't get it was not a discounted cash flow business but a future potential cash flow business - a network effect stock valued on Metcalfe's Law. And thus it was exponential in nature and required log chart to understand....one bubble 2000, the rest normal...
And the NDX is the same - one bubble in 2000 and the rest, normal and correctly priced.
And Bitcoin is the same...one bubble in 2013 and a mild one.
It's a new business model - network effects. It forces us to re-think valuation and 30 years of outperformance over time suggests we cant ignore it and write these trends off as bubbles. But they are volatile and that is ok as there is no reward without risk.
And that is all without using one chart of the Fed balance sheet as a denominator 😜

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More from @RaoulGMI

29 Aug
Humour me, let's just imagine that QE does actually debase a currency then it surely would have effects something very much like this... (SPX vs Fed Balance Sheet).
Over the longer run, since QE started it would probably look something like this if the currency was being debased...
If money was being debased then Real Estate would also most likely follow the increase in the central bank balance sheet...
Read 8 tweets
29 Aug
I have opinions in global macro that I'm happy to share because I worked out I've done around 100,000 hours of work on it over 31 years. I also know I am wildly wrong sometimes (and more than I'd wish) but if I have a relative superpower, I get the long-term stuff pretty right.
But sometimes I've screw that up too - starting an agricultural commodities hedge fund in 2007 was a classic. I didn't understand the impact of technology and prices are down 50% since then. Duh!

There is always something we think we understand but we really don't.
Successful macro investing is all about holding ones view in your head and endlessly assessing the probabilities that you are wrong, without freaking out.

Dogma is the death of investing, as is view paralysis. The other bad one is excessive risk aversion or seeking.
Read 10 tweets
14 Aug
One day, when I have time and an army of interns, I’m going to map out on a big wall all of @RudyHavenstein threads from the genesis tweet. If you aren’t following closely you’ll miss that this account is a work of complex literary art woven around multiple narrative arcs 1/
The interwoven threads include a caustic commentary of the corrupting of the financial system, lack of accountability of bankers in 2008, Epstein’s full story, mixed in with art like the epic Fugazzi! and Bridgewater Sausage threads, multi-genre music threads and sub-threads. 2/
There are so many threads on going at any time, some lie dormant for years and come back to life. Rudy somehow keeps on top of it all and accesses relevant parts from years back and brings them back out, drawing people back into the depth of content created and all the various
Read 5 tweets
2 Aug
What I really don't get about Tether fears is this:

Let's say its right and Tether implodes to zero. What happens to Bitcoin or digital assets? Down 30% immediately? down 50%? down 60% down 80%?

Ok. Well, we just did that (many tokens were down 80%) and guess what? 1/
2/ Life went on. Nothing happened.

If fact, crypto markets do a -70% pretty often and guess what, nothing happens and adoption keeps rising.

When I first learned about Bitfinex's issues BTC was at 6,100. It could now fall 80% and still not hit that.
3/ We all get it but no one here has found a new source of risk the market didn't know.

It has been talked about for 4 years - the people involved! Deltec! the illicit use! the backing isn't 1:1 in cash in a vault guarded by Rottweilers! regulators! blah blah blah blah blah
Read 5 tweets
26 Jul
Just an update of the favorite crypto charts...

Here is the log chart parallel of BTC now vs 2013... still fits decently well. 1/
2/ And here is the non-log version... pretty much perfect from a contextualization standpoint.
And here is ETH now vs BTC in 2017... also pretty decent.
Read 4 tweets
24 Jul
Friday Night Thoughts - Thread on inflation and other stuff:

The cure for higher prices is higher prices, but it's also a three card trick...

Prices of goods disrupted by supply issues have exploded...(I used CPI Index, not CPI YoY as its distorted).
BUT, that has lead to a collapse in consumer confidence due to these prices...
What is going to happen in housing is clear - the homebuilders need to stop building or they will have an inventory problem...
Read 24 tweets

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