The waning of Pfizer and Moderna vaccine protection vs *symptomatic infections* over time in all age groups, slide presented at ACIP @CDCgov meeting by Sara Oliver MD cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/…
(this was the primary endpoint for the pivotal trials to approve these vaccines)
Red=Delta (Green=pre-Delta)
It's still early into the period of waning, w/ frequency of exposures increasing over time.
Recall the UK (and other countries) decision to provide 3rd shots irrespective of vaccine to all age 50+ is at odds with FDA/CDC (Pfizer only, age 65+)
Meanwhile we have left the people who got a J&J vaccine stranded with comparatively very low antibody levels 2-6 weeks after dosing, while we've learned such levels are tied to protection cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
I think that's now ill-considered.
It's as if the denialists of waning vs symptomatic infections think this issue will just go away over time, despite this endpoint being an accepted surrogate for hospitalizations. Meanwhile this is putting those not covered by current criteria, but at risk, for #LongCovid, too.
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New reports @NEJM today support higher vaccine effectiveness (VE) of Moderna over Pfizer, with both providing strong level of protection 1. vs Symptomatic infection in health care personnel 96.3 vs 88.8% (see Table for 95% CI, slight overlap) nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
2. ~6-Month Follow-Up of Moderna pivotal trial nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
VE 98.2% vs severe disease (here VE = vaccine efficacy, with a placebo control)
Difference between protection, VE for symptomatic infections during extended follow-up of Pfizer and Moderna
Pfizer data nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
New large dataset of US Medicare (age 65+) population subgroup: 2.7 million Pfizer; 2.9 million Moderna vaccinated, w/ ~30,000 breakthrough hospitalizations, via claims 🧵main findings @Humetrixhumetrix.com/powerpoint-vac…
1. Definite waning of protection vs hospitalization for those 5-6 months out from vaccination (odd ratio 2.5X at 6 months)
2. No significant difference of waning for Pfizer vs Moderna for protection from breakthrough infections
Delta can be daunting to contain.
The situation in Singapore with over 1,000 new cases today and yesterday, 80% of total population fully vaccinated, 1 of top 3 countries in the world, is an important indicator of the challenge.
Singapore’s booster campaign for people over the age of 60 began Tuesday, 14 September
A @CellCellPress commentary yesterday entitled "Keeping Pace with the #SARSCoV2 Variants" states
"The evidence so far suggests that effectiveness against hospitalizations and symptomatic illness is highly preserved against Delta" cell.com/cell/fulltext/…
I'm calling it out. /1
For several weeks dating back to July, we have seen protection of vaccination for symptomatic infections drop down from >90% to <40% in Israel which was refuted, attributed to poor analysis, Simpson's paradox, and many other objections to @IsraelMOH reports /2
Those reports were since corroborated by others including @KPSCalResearch, @PHE_uk. Qatar and many other. But they were ignored and denied. /3
2. 6-month follow-up of the original placebo-controlled trials (adult + teens; > 44,000 participants) showed gradual reduction in efficacy vs symptomatic infections from 96% (fully vaxxed) to 83% (> 4 months) nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
3. Small 3rd shot-> Neutralizing antibody study vs Wild-type and Delta by age group, showing significant increase immune response not much affected by variant or age
The @Pfizer@US_FDA booster documents fda.gov/media/152161/d…
reviews all data on effectiveness (VE) vs infection
—waning immunity not related to Delta, just a matter of time, 6% reduction of VE every 2 months
—restoration to 95% VE by 3rd shot
—recommends booster for all age 16+
The (Pfizer) bottom line, w/ antibody % safety data in this 53 page report.
Their case is not made sufficiently for all age groups, predominantly relying on infections, not protection from severe illness, which exists now for age ≥ 60
That may change with ongoing follow-up data.
Little evidence of difference in booster effect by age or variant (WT/Wuhan vs Delta/DA)) difference for neutralization assays. Substantial increase on this log-scale NT50 plot across the board.