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Tobias Harris Profile picture
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25 Sep, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Kono is at 51% among LDP supporters, ahead of Takaichi (19%) and Kishida (18%). Noda distant fourth with 2%.
nikkei.com/article/DGXZQO…
Among independents, whose support is critical to any argument about electability, it's Kono (39%), Kishida (14%), Takaichi (11%), Noda (5%).
Unless Takaichi can pick up a lot of the undecided MPs or boost her standing with party voters, we're probably heading for a Kono v. Kishida runoff.
In which case the question is Kishida's insider support enough to overcome Kono's electability argument. Knowing the LDP, it probably is, but we'll know soon enough.

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Tobias Harris Profile picture
26 Sep
With Kishida seemingly well-positioned to advance to the second round and possibly win the LDP's leadership, I guess it's time to take a closer look at him. #自民党総裁選挙 Image
While Kono's family is more famous, Kishida is no less of a dynastic politician.
His paternal grandfather was Kishida Masaki, the eldest son of an agricultural goods dealer from Hiroshima (who spent some time in colonial Taiwan and Manchuria).
Read 63 tweets
Tobias Harris Profile picture
24 Sep
Can I recommend some massive threads for those who will be in attendance?
On her book:

And the biographical thread:

Read 4 tweets
Tobias Harris Profile picture
23 Sep
This column in Sankei by Abiru Rui, a Sankei writer who also wrote several rather hagiographic books about Abe, is an extremely helpful look at how the right wing sees Kono. My quick reading follows.
He opens by noting his anxiety about Kono's basing his campaign on his "ability to breakthrough" challenges. He says that Kono's vague promises that can be easily ignored are reminiscent of the DPJ.
(Has anyone done systematic study on the uses of the DPJ in right-wing rhetoric?)
Read 16 tweets
Tobias Harris Profile picture
21 Sep
In my latest for @NikkeiAsia, I consider how Abe's legacy is shaping the LDP race. asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Shinzo…
Some excerpts: "This year's leadership contest reveals the extent to which his premiership continues to shape and constrain the choices available to Japan's leaders."
"It is increasingly apparent that Abe left his successors a toolbox -- fiscal and monetary stimulus, state-led industrial policy, more activist foreign policy led by a strengthened prime minister's office -- but not a road map."
Read 5 tweets
Tobias Harris Profile picture
18 Sep
The LDP's campaign website includes the "manifestos" for each of the candidates. Here's a brief guide.
1) Noda Seiko (@noda_seiko93)
Slogan: Politics that can be understood by anyone
She's less a moderate than an outright liberal, particularly in the LDP. Her statement is focused on fostering a "paradigm shift" that accommodates a more diverse society.
…in.jp-east-2.storage.api.nifcloud.com/sousai21/pdf/n…
Her platform is to "trust the experts" on Covid-19; realize child-centered politics; fairness towards women, the elderly, persons with disabilities, LGBTQ (allow separate surnames); endorses decarbonization, focuses on renewables but nothing about nuclear.
Read 35 tweets
Tobias Harris Profile picture
17 Sep
Definitely keep an eye on this spreadsheet tracking which MPs are supporting which candidate.
Suffice to say, the path to Kono -- or any candidate -- winning in the first round is exceedingly narrow.
That's based not just on the estimated MP votes but also after playing around with the trust D'Hondt method PR calculator. icon.cat/util/elections
Read 9 tweets

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