I have been thinking more and more about the $CAMB.LN outcome in the context of my own investment, but more in terms of what I want my Fintwit contribution to be.

Connor is a friend and a great advocate for minorities in situations like this, but there is more to be done.

πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
If I think about what 'went wrong' w/ how Cambria turned out, clearly we had a conflicted and complicit board; an avaricious CEO; a weak regulatory framework; and a feckless institutional shareholder group.

But I prob could have, and should have, done more personally.
The main issue was trading liquidity was near zero - meaning both inability to build a blocking stake, and presenting huge headaches post-deal.

Nevertheless the solution would have been to more actively bid some of those same disinterested instos who just intended to tender.
Looking back on how it turned out, I now realize something like $5mm could have completely changed the outcome - to the benefit of all minorities. It's sad to realize how small an amount it would have taken. 😐😐
I am fortunate to have built something of a (niche) platform here, over many, many years, and in retrospect this is an amount I could have 'crowdsourced' in all likelihood. In fact I'm still not sure why it didn't occur to me sooner...but it didn't πŸ™ƒ
So this is both a call to arms, and a bit of an 'ask': if you have a special situation, anywhere in the developed or semi-develped world, where minorities are being egregiously abused, please bring it to my attention - ideally ASAP. Time is critical in most of these situations
I can't promise I'll be able to help, or even get involved in every deal (there's only 24hrs in a day) - but I want to add value in the right way where I can.

I think the $HDG.NA case is a perfect example of the power of a platform, and considered 'minority activism.'
Clearly in that case, it was very much a win-win for all shareholders, and I like to think I added a decent amount of value through my approach.

I want to continue to undertake these kinds of cases. If you can help me in this mission, just let me know as soon as you can πŸ‘ŠπŸ‘Š
Maybe together, we can turn the next one from a $CAMB.LN into an $HDG.NA...

πŸ™πŸ™

β€’ β€’ β€’

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
γ€€

Keep Current with Jeremy Raper

Jeremy Raper Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @puppyeh1

28 Sep
Ok Kingsgate $KCN.AX, let's do this. Aussie gold miner special sit. This is not without risk so big boy pants on, DYODD, I am long and think its compelling but again - caveat emptor bigly on this one.

That said - the stock is $1.25, i think imminently its $2+ and heading to $3-4
Mkt cap today is ~$275mm (AUD), $10mm cash, no debt.

Two main assets: the Chatree gold/silver mine in Thailand; and a development asset in Chile (Nueva Esperanza).

NE agreed sale to a Canadian junior for $69mm. Hasn't closed - let's forget it for now.
Chatree in Thailand. V complex story. Mine shut down in 2015 bec the Thai govt basically removed $KCN.AX licence overnight due to environmental concerns. These were never proven (in fact the opposite). Chatree had been mining since 2001, $KCN had invested >$1bn over time.
Read 27 tweets
14 Sep
Here's an interesting example for the commodity shitco degenerates in my feed: Stanmore Resources, $SMR.AX.

Note this is extremely illiquid, as a result I have a tiny position, I think its more of a speculation than an 'all in' type call. But it is certainly intriguing...

πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡
As always here at Raper Capital there is an event angle. $SMR.AX is 74% owned by a Singapore holdco, Golden Energy $AUE.SI, also v cheap but a different beast.

Note that Golden bid for the whole co at $1 last April...
Stock was in the low 80s at the time - despite coal prices being in the toilet (post COVID) and a few operational issues.

Unclear why they couldn't mop up the entire thing, I guess there were a few holdouts, they went from 31% to 75% but couldn't get it done.
Read 19 tweets
13 Sep
We will come to the next chapter soon enough but here's a recap to catch you up. 2014-19 was an exploratory period where I developed my investment style; tried to launch a fund, 2x, and didn't get it going; and had overall success punctuated by extreme volatility at times...
I grossed 220% over six yrs (vs SPX ~100%), whilst running ~30% average net exposure (ie beta-adjusted neutral), but punctuated by bouts of extreme volatility and underperformance.

Indeed most all the outperformance was generated in the early years when credit analysis 'worked'
To recap:

2014: +119% vs SPX +12%
2015: +39% vs SPX -1%
2016: +1% vs SPX +10%
2017: +21% vs SPX +19%
2018: -25% vs SPX -6%
2019: +15% vs SPX +29%

Cumulative performance: +220% (21.5% CAGR) vs SPX +100% (12.2% CAGR) Image
Read 10 tweets
6 Sep
Time for another chapter in the Raper Capital origin story. Part 6: 2019.

This was a most eventful year and the most difficult since I began my full-time money management adventure. I got carried out of numerous shorts at huge losses and my entire approach was questioned...

πŸ‘‡
First, the headline numbers. +15% on the yr vs the SPX +29%. In general I'll always take an absolute performance like that, but this felt like a total loss if you look at how I was doing through 1-3Q:
As you can see, I was on track for a smashing year (mid-30s%+) before 4Q happened and brought everything crashing down...

Looking at the top detractors ($NIO short calls, short $TSLA, etc) its pretty clear what happened...
Read 17 tweets
3 Sep
Let's check in on one of my fave little Aussie shitcos, Simonds Group $SIO.AX. You can read the original thread here:



If I had to summarize the state of play in a GIF it would be
Honestly the FY numbers were OK to fine. Overall EBITDA (pre-leases) was flat YoY despite large COVID issues (lockdowns affecting work; labor shortages, etc). Adjusting from leases, 'true' EBITDA was $16mm (and worth noting the trajectory much stronger in 2H):
Let's break it down by segments. Core homebuilding saw a big increase in starts - +14% yoy - a bit higher than I expected, but lower earnings as margins got hit by shortages and inefficiencies. Actually I think the Balance sheet tells part of the tale too...
Read 11 tweets
1 Sep
Since $HDG.NA is breaking out to new highs and I’m getting a fair few inbounds, let me open the kimono a little as to my thinking here…
The short answer is not much has changed. Still (by far) my largest position w the best combo of absolute valuation; execution; and potential event/takeout catalyst.

I think tho some people are realizing the housing/renovation/remodel boom May well continue a good deal longer…
Which is basically the message if you listen to most all the building products/home interior 2Q calls.

Maybe one/some woke up to the fact that this is one of the best quality building products names globally but still absurdly cheap (<5x EV/ebitda, unlevered).
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(