Thread by @Chrisbilbo

NSW R_eff as of September 29th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.85 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

NSW R_eff as of September 29th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.85 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 0.80 ± 0.04
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 0.97 ± 0.05

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

Expected numbers if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Thu: 803 685—925
Fri: 771 646—900
Sat: 740 606—874
Sun: 707 571—850
Mon: 675 536—823
Tue: 644 498—792
Wed: 613 465—770

Halving time is 22.1 days.

Note that these projections do not take into account upcoming easing of restrictions. If the trend changes as a result of easing, the projections will also change once this is reflected in case numbers, but not in advance.