Thread by @Chrisbilbo

NSW R_eff as of September 30th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.89 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

NSW R_eff as of September 30th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.89 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 0.80 ± 0.04
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 0.93 ± 0.05

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

The Hunter Region: R_eff = 1.45 ± 0.19

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

Expected numbers if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Fri: 820 694—948
Sat: 793 660—933
Sun: 765 621—912
Mon: 736 587—890
Tue: 708 554—871
Wed: 679 523—849
Thu: 651 490—826

Halving time is 29.6 days.

Note that these projections do not take into account upcoming easing of restrictions. If the trend changes as a result of easing, the projections will also change once this is reflected in case numbers, but not in advance.