ACT R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.71 ± 0.53
Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.
Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).
More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_ACT.html
Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.
Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).
More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_ACT.html
ACT R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.71 ± 0.53
Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.
(Cases shown on a log scale)
More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_ACT.html
Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.
(Cases shown on a log scale)
More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_ACT.html
Expected numbers if the current trend continues:
day cases 68% range
Sat: 44 14—81
Sun: 49 12—100
Mon: 55 10—124
Tue: 60 5—150
Wed: 66 4—183
Thu: 72 0—220
Fri: 78 0—262
Doubling time is 6.5 days.
day cases 68% range
Sat: 44 14—81
Sun: 49 12—100
Mon: 55 10—124
Tue: 60 5—150
Wed: 66 4—183
Thu: 72 0—220
Fri: 78 0—262
Doubling time is 6.5 days.
Deleted earlier post and reposted with a more appropriate y axis scale. Note that massive jumps like this totally violate the assumptions of the model used here, namely that R_eff does not change except for vaccines (and prior infection). Thus take everything with a grain of salt
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