ACT R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.71 ± 0.53

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_ACT.html
ACT R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.71 ± 0.53

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_ACT.html
Expected numbers if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Sat: 44 14—81
Sun: 49 12—100
Mon: 55 10—124
Tue: 60 5—150
Wed: 66 4—183
Thu: 72 0—220
Fri: 78 0—262

Doubling time is 6.5 days.
Deleted earlier post and reposted with a more appropriate y axis scale. Note that massive jumps like this totally violate the assumptions of the model used here, namely that R_eff does not change except for vaccines (and prior infection). Thus take everything with a grain of salt

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More from @Chrisbilbo

1 Oct
VIC R_eff as of October 2nd with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.53 ± 0.09

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic ImageImage
VIC R_eff as of October 2nd with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.53 ± 0.09

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic ImageImage
Expected numbers if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Sun: 1591 1327—1863
Mon: 1739 1409—2100
Tue: 1896 1485—2367
Wed: 2068 1558—2644
Thu: 2246 1635—2952
Fri: 2433 1706—3288
Sat: 2631 1770—3655

Doubling time is 8.2 days.

#COVID19Vic
Read 7 tweets
1 Oct
NSW R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.91 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
NSW R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.91 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 0.80 ± 0.04
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 0.96 ± 0.05

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
Read 6 tweets
1 Oct
VIC R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.46 ± 0.08

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic
VIC R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.46 ± 0.08

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic
Expected numbers if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Sat: 1373 1146—1591
Sun: 1482 1205—1765
Mon: 1597 1253—1961
Tue: 1718 1309—2161
Wed: 1844 1359—2374
Thu: 1979 1399—2608
Fri: 2110 1443—2866

Doubling time is 9.2 days.

#COVID19Vic
Read 5 tweets
30 Sep
NSW R_eff as of September 30th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.89 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
NSW R_eff as of September 30th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.89 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 0.80 ± 0.04
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 0.93 ± 0.05

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
29 Sep
VIC R_eff as of September 30th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.50 ± 0.09

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic ImageImage
VIC R_eff as of September 30th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.50 ± 0.09

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic ImageImage
Expected numbers if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Fri: 1322 1099—1557
Sat: 1441 1156—1738
Sun: 1565 1213—1941
Mon: 1694 1265—2161
Tue: 1833 1317—2414
Wed: 1977 1370—2669
Thu: 2130 1424—2953

Doubling time is 8.6 days.

#COVID19Vic
Read 5 tweets
29 Sep
NSW R_eff as of September 29th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.85 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
NSW R_eff as of September 29th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.85 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 0.80 ± 0.04
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 0.97 ± 0.05

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
Read 5 tweets

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