Thread by @x2IndSpeculator

Modern global economy & world trade are finely oiled interconnected machines near-perfectly calibrated for just-in-time delivery. #SARSCoV2 is a stumbling block in this machine. Like dominos, when one piece falls in some part of the world, everything starts falling apart.
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Governments misread this as a demand crisis & pushed the stimulus pedal to the metal pulling forward future & creating artificial, extra demand. Politicians wanted to compensate people for the mandated decrease in social activities & keep them happy for political purposes.
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But, I've said it many times: it's like a wheel has fallen off the car, yet you still keep pushing the accelerator. All you do is keep spinning in circles while risking blowing up the engine. The logical thing to do would be to fix the wheel FIRST before proceeding.
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Imagine if WWII was fought like this. That instead of spending on weapons & bullets, mobilizing everything & everyone, FDR & Churchill worried about people's happiness so gave money to them to buy dishwashers, TVs & cars (who & how would make those?) to enjoy themselves.
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#SARS2 is an unpredictable & uncontrollable disruptor (and a slow persistent long-term killer), so this pandemic is currently mainly a supply crisis. Demand shock was brief & similar to a natural disaster event. Soon, people just rerouted their consumption.
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Thus, we have a mismatch of glorious proportions in global supply & demand. Prices should go even higher to resolve that, but they can't because of shortages: it doesn't matter how much you're willing to pay if you can't get it. So, prices can't return us to equilibrium.
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It's the same for materials, goods & people/workforce. Nobody can finish anything started to build or produce. Everything's sold in advance.
There are two hard ways to solve this: confronting & dealing with #SARS2 instead of ignoring it or demand destruction a.k.a. recession.
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A third possible and an easy way is to muddle through & hope that in 2022 the pandemic ends on its own like the previous ones ended, supply chains slowly come back to normal, people return to work, while demand eases by tapering & slowing of stimulus.
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This third easy way rests on the hope of policymakers & virologists/scientists that #SARS2 is just like other common cold coronaviruses, or the flu at worst. That there is nothing special about it and everything will be fine once we all get infected by it. Good luck to us.
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