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Double Individual Speculator Profile picture
Double Individual Speculator
@x2IndSpeculator
Investigating, analyzing, hypothesizing, and speculating freely, independently, objectively, sometimes controversially on MARKETS, ECONOMY, POLITICS and SARS-2.
Sep 15, 2022 • 11 tweets • 7 min read
Insurance companies, esp. life insurance, seem to be the only institutions left that still give a damn about #COVID. Why? Because they can NOT afford not to. Everyone else can just pretend the pandemic is over & #SARS2 is a mild cold, but insurers can NOT! They know it's real. Insurers will soon be the last remaining source of #COVID data, now that governments & health care public institutions are disgracefully abandoning their duties.
For the pandemic's ongoing toll, look at the latest Group Life #COVID19 Mortality Report.
soa.org/programs/covid…
Jun 17, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
So, the OPPOSITE of what the "expert" virologist Jasnah (& friends) was telling me a year ago.
"Key characteristic of FATAL #COVID19 outcomes is that the immune response to the #SARSCoV2 spike protein is enriched for antibodies directed against epitopes SHARED with ENDEMIC... beta-coronaviruses & has a lower proportion of antibodies targeting the more protective variable regions of the spike... suggesting an antibody profile in individuals with fatal outcomes consistent with an original antigenic sin type-response."
insight.jci.org/articles/view/…
May 30, 2022 • 18 tweets • 8 min read
In a month, we got 2 studies from TWO highly respectable teams demonstrating MHC-I downregulation in cells infected with #SARSCoV2. While conclusions are the same, results differ in the exact #SARS2 mechanism of inhibition of the presentation of expressed antigen to CD8+ T-cells. "...we found that ORF7a reduced cell surface MHC-I levels by approximately 5-FOLD. Nevertheless, in cells infected with #SARSCoV2, surface MHC-I levels were reduced even in the absence of ORF7a, suggesting additional mechanisms of MHC-I downregulation."
biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
May 26, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
"Head-to-head comparisons of T cell, B cell & antibody responses to diverse vaccines...
We additionally compared their immune memory to natural infection for binding antibodies, neutralizing antibodies, spike-specific CD4+, CD8+ T cells & memory B cells."
cell.com/cell/fulltext/… Interesting summary of differences in humoral & cellular immune memory. But, this caught my attention; mostly disregarded as an inconvenience.
"mRNA vaccines and Ad26.COV2.S induced comparable CD8+ T cell frequencies, though ONLY DETECTABLE in 60-67% of subjects at 6 months." Image
May 15, 2022 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
The two of the best economic blogs I've been reading for years are written by brilliant, independent individuals: calculatedriskblog.com by Bill McBride @calculatedrisk, and bonddad.blogspot.com by the anonymous blogger called New Deal Democrat. The recent post by NDD about #SARSCoV2 illustrates the prevalent reasoning that led to the current policy blind alley.
"A year ago I thought that between nearly universal vaccinations & an increasing percentage of the population already infected...
May 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Oh, how long we have waited. Finally, a step forward.
"Such repeated immune activation might be mediated by a SUPERANTIGEN motif within the #SARSCoV2 spike protein that bears resemblance to Staphylococcal enterotoxin B, TRIGGERING BROAD & NON-SPECIFIC T-CELL ACTIVATION." "We hypothesise that the recently reported cases of severe acute hepatitis in children could be a consequence of adenovirus infection with intestinal trophism in children PREVIOUSLY INFECTED by #SARSCoV2 & carrying VIRAL RESERVOIRS...
May 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Why aren't they escaping? Because they don't have to.
"Therefore, it is highly likely that the #SARSCoV2 ancestral strain was fully optimized to escape from CD8+ T cell-mediated immunity and was under no evolutionary pressure to further optimize its immune evasion strategy." This is @VirusesImmunity study, not some @fitterhappierAJ speculation.
"We demonstrated that VOCs retain similar MHC-I downregulation capacity compared to the ancestral virus. VOCs exhibit a greater ability to suppress type I IFN than the ancestral virus.
biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
May 3, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
It felt vindicating to read this paper "Disentangling the relative importance of T cell responses in #COVID19: LEADING ACTORS OR SUPPORTING CAST?" & to see the same conclusions I independently came about from my layman/trader perspective by using mathematics & logical deduction. Oh, how many times have I written this to "experts" overselling T cells as a team of superheroes:
"These factors highlight the difficulty in establishing a role for T cells in protective immunity to #SARS2 infection beyond a general assumption that they are likely to be helpful."
May 3, 2022 • 16 tweets • 7 min read
Finally, some reason & common sense in the official immunology.
"We describe several lines of evidence that argue AGAINST a direct impact of vaccine-induced memory T cells in PREVENTING symptomatic #SARSCoV2 INFECTION...
@fitterhappierAJ
nature.com/articles/s4157… The contribution of T cell immunity in REDUCING the SEVERITY of infection, particularly with #SARS2 variants, REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED.
In reality protective immunity to most pathogens does not refer to a binary outcome (susceptible vs protected) but instead REFLECTS a SPECTRUM."
Apr 24, 2022 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
"The effectiveness of 3 doses vs. hospital admission due to #Delta... fall from 89% <3 months to 71% from 3 months+...
After 3 doses, VE of BNT162b2 against hospital admission due to the #Omicron variant was 85% at <3 months but fell to 55% at 3 months+."
thelancet.com/journals/lanre… I'm very interested in the virologists' explanation of why would VE vs. hospitalization wane this much over time if, for severity, T-cells are exclusively more important than antibodies. It seems to me real-life data doesn't support currently presumed dogma. Novelty=severity, no?
Apr 23, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I don't know what's happening with BNO since the takeover but they have more & more commentaries, instead of pure news. This thread is of course correct but so 2021. The story of 2022/23 is monetary & fiscal tightening, thus FALLING demand. The effects are not as straightforward. The price of used cars has already exploded in the previous year and a half. New cars are having supply chain problems since I started reporting it at the beginning of 2021?! This is old, ancient news.
Apr 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Wait, WHAT?! After two years of downplaying and only talking about the first two possibilities ("the good" - common cold, and "the bad" - the flu), NOW you admit there is "the ugly".
Quote it: "– extensive diversification into serotypes with long-term high-level endemicity." "Worst case scenarios include high case numbers & circulation of a diversity of serotypes with limited protection across strains, possibly fuelled by reverse anthroponosis & recombination between human & animal coronaviruses...
Apr 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
XD is bad news.
"This recombinant exhibits immune escape properties similar to #Omicron, while its behavior in mice expressing the human ACE2 receptor is more similar to #Delta." I'm confused. Viral load is not the determinant of severity?
"The levels of viral RNA in the lungs of mice infected with BA.1 or XD viruses were comparable, and 3.7-fold LOWER than those of AY.4-infected animals (Fig. 3a)...
Nov 10, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This is like the 1940s because we are at war. At war with #SARS2. Only, unlike the 1940s when people & politicians behaved & prepared like in the war, today the vast majority behaves as nothing unusual is happening. But, look at the policy response. It's war-like! First, win the war, then everything else. Not good enough to pretend you have won the war. That way, you have just spent your reserves, while the enemy grew stronger. Fantasy is not a long-term solution.
Nov 8, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I use these calculations for rough predictions about future waves compared to last year's. If a country has a 50% vaccinated non-boosted population (1:2 infection risk reduction) & #Delta has x2 the incidence among unvaccinated, it guarantees 50% more infections without NPIs. Index to 100 infected in the last year's wave when the population was 100% unvaccinated with 2% CFR.
Vaccinated non-boosted half:
50 x 1/2 x 2 = 50 x 2% x 1/3 = 0.33
Unvaccinated half:
50 x 2 = 100 x 2% = 2
-> 50% more infections & -> 16.6% more deaths
Nov 8, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Two months:
"Danish Prime Minister Says New Virus Restrictions Are Needed"
“We can see that the infection is spreading from those who have not been vaccinated to those who have been vaccinated, including the elderly & people at risk,” M. Frederiksen said."
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… This got him worried. But, I don't know who could have predicted this. It was totally unexpected. Image
Nov 4, 2021 • 29 tweets • 16 min read
#Israel changed databases but luckily I saved the old one until September 30 (eight months of vaccination). Before transitioning to a time-based mindset, I wanted to revisit Israeli data for a final recap of lessons we could've learned during the summer.
Lesson #1:
Incidence rates of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated spent the first half of 2021 distinctly apart. So, it was clear something was different with the VE of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine vs. infection when incidence rates of all subgroups suddenly skyrocketed TOGETHER in June. Image
Sep 29, 2021 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Modern global economy & world trade are finely oiled interconnected machines near-perfectly calibrated for just-in-time delivery. #SARSCoV2 is a stumbling block in this machine. Like dominos, when one piece falls in some part of the world, everything starts falling apart.
1/ Governments misread this as a demand crisis & pushed the stimulus pedal to the metal pulling forward future & creating artificial, extra demand. Politicians wanted to compensate people for the mandated decrease in social activities & keep them happy for political purposes.
2/
Sep 27, 2021 • 29 tweets • 15 min read
I've been trying to combine daily Israel data with the @IsraelMOH FDA presentation & the booster study from @NEJM. Extending their ideas, I created charts that provide the same valuable real-life information as the study but CONTINUOUSLY in REAL-TIME.
1/
 nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.105… MOH correctly understood even a seemingly modest decrease in vaccine effectiveness results in a significant increase in relative risk for the vaccinated, impacting the pandemic control.
97%>85% = 5-fold increase in relative risk 3%>15% (1:33>1:6.6)
2/
 fda.gov/media/152205/d… Image
Sep 18, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I've been tweet-erratic the last few days because I thought my #SARS2 safety protocol has been breached. Like many other parents have experienced, it took us only seven days of this new living-with-#COVID school for my younger son to develop respiratory illness symptoms. My guess, potential exposure was physical education (gym) class held INDOORS (& maskless) due to bad weather. Then, 36h later, a sore throat, fever, congested nose & cough. My wife & I are both x2 Pfizer post-3 months, and sons Pfizer 3 weeks after 1st dose (scheduled for 2nd).
Sep 16, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
A great interview with @florian_krammer with several useful explanations about testing the levels of nAbs. My nightmare virus is #SARSCoV2, though. For 50% killers, the global reaction would be swift.
"Some antibody tests give you a yes-or-no response...
medscape.com/viewarticle/95… That is okay to figure out if you had an infection or not, or if you made an immune response to the vaccine. But that's all it can tell you. Then there are antibody tests that are semi-quantitative or quantitative, that tell you what level of antibody you have now...