Thread by @keiranpedley

As #LabourConference21 draws to a close, some thoughts on where Labour stand based on some charts I presented at our @IpsosMORI fringe event this week.

As people will know, our latest data has the Cons +3 pts ahead. But, as ever, the story is more complex than that. THREAD

1/ At the heart of Labour's struggles is that only 1 in 4 think they are ready to form the next govt.

Since being in opposition, they've struggled to get more than 1 in 3 think they are ready.

Yet in the 90s, clear majorities thought Blair's Labour were ready. Work to do.

2/ Firstly, though, a word on the Cons for context.

First thing to appreciate is Conservative voters like Johnson. 76% of them are satisfied with the job he's doing as PM. In contrast, just 40% of Lab voters are satisfied with Starmer.

3/ And when we compare satisfaction with Johnson's govt to other govts at this same point in the cycle, it doesn't perform badly.

Of course there is no set trajectory here. Thatcher's govt got much more popular in 1982 post Falklands.

But Major's govt this is not...

4/ Yet with that said, there is public discontent with several aspects of the govts performance. Johnson's govt is seen to have done very well on the vaccine rollout but clear majorities think it's done a bad job on the NHS, education, crime and levelling up...

5/ Back to Labour though and we see favourability towards Labour has not changed much since GE2019. Was 27% just after and despite rising to 31% at one point it now sits at 25%.

Over hostility has fallen post Corbyn but this hasnt led to more being overtly favourability

6/ Digging deeper, one issue Labour has is that the public still see the party as divided. A clear majority (56%) think the party is divided. This is down from 75% in 2019 but is still far too high.

Not going to pass judgement on 'why' here but something for Lab to think about.

7/ Meanwhile just one in three think the party cares about 'people like me'. Highlighting the need for Lab to pursue an agenda voters feel is relevant to them.

8/ On Starmer's ratings. His first net satisfaction score as leader was +31 (the joint highest we've recorded for a leader of the opposition) but it has been on a negative trajectory since.

Now his net ratings look similar to those of others that have gone on to lose.

9/ And yet, our polling this week showed the public just as likely to choose Starmer as 'the most capable PM' as Johnson. Though it should be said this shift is because of Johnson supporters moving to 'neither' rather than a surge in support for Starmer

10/ And just to reiterate the point. There is discontent out there. Just 1 in 3 think the current govt deserves to be re-elected.

11/ And even going into the last election we saw that there are some issues the public just inherently trust Labour on more. Though massive deficits on the economy (Con lead +24) and defence (Cons +33) should make sobering reading for Lab.

So what do we learn?

1) Headline VI polls narrowing only part of the story. Lab has major brand issues to content with on areas like defence, the economy and being seen as 'fit to govern'.

2)Meanwhile Starmer's ratings have moved in the wrong direction whilst Cons like Johnson.

3) That being said it's clear that there are large areas of domestic policy where the public are unimpressed with the govt's performance.

4) So the question is can Labour capitalise whilst persuading voters it is a credible party of govt once more? Time will tell.

ENDS