Still doing work updating my $GBTC research primer. Complete destruction of GBTC's status as a leveraged bitcoin bet. Historically it almost always offered more extreme returns in either direction during moves. That has completely broken down with the current persistent discount.
If $GBTC is ever able to convert to an ETF and BTC price trend is positive during that time, it may act as a leverage play again as the discount closes. Who knows when/if that happens though. Still hasn't stopped $GBTC's trading dominance though. No other fund is remotely close.
The collapse into a discount also caused a collapse in people betting against $GBTC. No one wants to be short this thing right now -- don't blame them. Current short interest as percent of shares is 0.3% of shares. Down from a peak of 9.74%.
If you've gotten this far and wanna see more charts and get some more detail. It can be found on the terminal at {GBTC US Equity BICO} or directly at the link below for clients. blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/R…
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Here's a thread with more stats/tables from my gold vs #Bitcoin note. This is my 3rd time doing a piece like this since 2018 and I find that each time gold bugs and bitcoiners both disagree with me on multiple points while favoring their respective side far far more heavily. 1/5
I took my own dive into Ark ETFs last week as people came out to the wood-work to bash @CathieDWood and @ARKInvest. Sure there are risks for people to be concerned about but there's also a lot of misinformation out there. Market cap and liquidity of stocks showed no pattern.
Regression analysis showed nothing in most basic metrics like beta, market cap, liquidity, etc. But taking the firm's stakes in the underlying stocks and their liquidity relative to the size of its position showed a definitive pattern. Heres avg return by quintile in each metric.
When you take both metrics into account, the trend is pretty obvious. But this is just correlation and not necessarily causation in my view. It's possible that Ark's concentrated positions happen to be in stocks most sensitive to other external factors, like rising rates...
Now available on @TheTerminal . Passively managed assets in U.S. ETFs and Mutual Funds sit right around 43% market share and passive is increasing at over 2 percentage points per year. Means we're likely to see majority passive by 2026. Likely earlier if there's a bear market...
If you're thinking, "I thought passive was already a majority?" that's probably from domestic equity funds. Which sit around 53.8% passive.
What i'm calling "Non-Domestic" sits around 41.5%. and puts the aggregate equity fund market at about 50.3% passive. But if international equities start offering relative positive performance to domestic, I expect that % to increase as well.