Johnson's pitch to workers is crystal clear: your wages will rise because we've kept the migrants out. But there'll be no care workers, no petrol, not enough gas, so prices will rise faster than wages, but nothing I can do about that, it's the market, see...
... there is no chance whatsoever of "uncontrolled migration" - not even under Free Movement was the rest of migration "uncontrolled". It's fear-stoking culture war and as the polls show it is working...
... but Tory support is fragile. There's rising discontent among C2DE voters over transport, energy, government performance and even Brexit... but it doesn't translate into Labour support. Why?...
... because racism and xenophobia are strong magnets and Labour hasn't found an equally strong magnet, narrative or policy offer...
... so the Greens and Libdems are winning incremental polling boosts, as the Tories shed percentage points. This will change for Labour only when the activist membership and the PLP sing the same tune as the leadership... which is not soon...
... but frustration in times of crisis does not move in a linear pattern. As with the murder of Sarah Everard murder, you get sudden moments of utter outrage where demands for change come from below...
... the traditional Tory instinct would be to blame "greedy workers" for the price rises/shortages happening across the economy; that rhetoric is closed off (except for public sector workers)...
... all Labour needs is a clear narrative, offer and story. Not 14,000 word essays or one hour speeches; politicians like @NadiaWhittomeMP and @zarahsultana - and yes @AndyBurnhamGM who look and sound like they mean business...
... the gap between voter frustration with the Tories, and the continued support for the Tories, is an open goal for the Labour leadership. Starmer has his pointless rule changes, a week of pointless bickering, his pointless defeat of PR. So start scoring.
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