Cyclone Shaheen-Gulab (meaning: Falcon-Rose) is making landfall in Oman right now. In this animation we can see how its outflows are bringing rain to the Horn of Africa.

This week's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica #HoA and #MiddleEast follow:
Two animations follow showing the development of Shaheen-Gulab over the past 48 hours, into what looks like a well organised powerful storm. This animation begins on Friday night and runs for 24 hours.
And this one starts yesterday afternoon and runs till about half an hour ago. #ArabianStorms [@Arab_Storms]
And this final animation shows the last 24 hours over the Horn of Africa, with lots of storms forming over Yemen, the Red Sea Coast and Afar and the Ethipoian Highlands.
This account @Arab_Storms, based in #UAE will be providing live eyewitness coverage of the storm as it develops and is well worth a follow.
Here's an @Arab_Storms flooding video from Oman from yesterday.
And a few flooding video tweets from today:
1.
This seven day GFS precipitable water forecast indicates that the impact of this event over both the Horn Of Africa and the Southern Arabian Peninsula will persist for the next seven days at least.
This is a 12 day accumulating rainfall forecast from the KMA model.

I confess I am a little skeptical about the levels of anticipated precipitation in all the models. They look on the light side to me.

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More from @althecat

3 Oct
. @StateDeptSpox The TPLF has just launched a new offensive against Afar on the day before the swearing in of the Ethiopian Govt.

And HoA Feltman is on a hand holding mission to Sudan. Another one.

The US needs to pay attention.
Surely a new offensive against the Legitimate govt of Ethiopia by the TPLF on the day of inauguration is sufficient to end US Government and UN support for them.
On Friday September 17th the US President announced a new set of unilateral sanctions specially designed for peace making. Demanding that “all parties” to the conflict in Tigray enter negotiations without preconditions.
Read 20 tweets
3 Oct
This is an incredible tale, somewhat terrifying. For more background check out the hashtag #FreeAbdiwahab.

But for a massive twitter campaign calling for his release, it is unclear what might have happened.
The report doesn't say this. But it is widely believed Abdiwahab was abducted by Kenyan police/security forces at the request of Somalia PM @MohamedHRoble. Roble who recently met with the UK PM @BorisJohnson and FM @DominicRaab recently had his powers suspended by @M_Farmaajo.
@MohamedHRoble @BorisJohnson @DominicRaab @M_Farmaajo The abduction came during the middle of a power struggle between President Farmaajo and Roble, precipitated in part by an unsanctioned visit by Roble to Kenya to meet with President Uhuru Kenyatta to discuss an imminent decision from the ICJ on a maritime boundary dispute.
Read 6 tweets
3 Oct
This is incredible. A must listen.

@JemalCountess on the Ground in Amhara Region, Ethiopia’ on - IV with @AnnGarrison KPFA Pacifica nationwide U.S. radio network.

soundcloud.com/pacificanetwor…
@JemalCountess @AnnGarrison Baltimore's @JemalCountess is on a field reporting trip to Ethiopia's Amhara Region which was invaded by TPLF forces in mid July, and parts of which remain occupied by their forces today.

In this IV he talks about the war, the occupation of UNESCO World Heritage site Lalibela...
@JemalCountess @AnnGarrison .. the 1 million+ traumatised IDPs in South Gondar Amhara Region and their horror over U.S. support for the TPLF.

IDP witnesses stories about what is happening in Lalibela are chilling. Lalibela has been fortified like Monte Casino was in WWII.
Read 5 tweets
3 Oct
This thread needs to be read by both @declanwalsh & @MarksSimon (NYT Nairobi based) & @rickgladstone (NYT NYC based) as well as by @girlstothefront at Vox.

Writing a story about the UN officials expulsions and failing to understand this is journalistic malpractice.
Here is how the @NYTimes addressed the trucks issue.

And here is how @voxdotcom's @girlstothefront addressed it. I.E. not at all.
Read 5 tweets
3 Oct
The 2nd day of protests in Addis accompanying an Oromo cultural festival. Included raising flag of a banned terror group in Meskel Square. It appears there is an active campaign underway to disrupt govt swearing in on Monday.

“Neftegna” is a name associated with killing Amhara.
Awol Allo is a journalist who sometimes receives air time on international media channels who supports Oromo separatism.
A week ago this video was released oh what appears to be a graduation parade for OLA fighters. The OLA announced a military alliance with TPLF in August. google.fr/amp/s/www.voan…
Read 5 tweets
2 Oct
This has got to be the worst propaganda video ever. Especially the bit where you can hear someone screaming in the background as if they are being tortured.

The Generals all look really sad. And they keep apologising to the parents of all the dead.
.@AsstSecStateAF Mary Phee. This is the military leadership of the TPLF. They are on their last legs.
This war will soon be over and the IC needs to be in a position to help with what comes next. Sanctioning Ethiopia for ridding itself of a secessionist rebellion will not help.
And where is General Tsadkan?
Read 4 tweets

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