Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #HoA

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Breaking from Pretoria:

A thread on today’s outcome of talks between the Federal Government of Ethiopia (GoE) and the TPLF:
#Ethiopia #Tigray #HoA #SouthAfrica #Pretoria #EastAfrica #PeaceTalks
The two-year-long costly Northern Conflict in Etiopia is set to come to an end today, November 2, 2022, with the conclusion of 8 consecutive days of negotiation which asserts the territorial sovereignty, territorial integrity, and lasting peace for the nation- according to (1/n)
… inside sources familiar with the process.
It is reported that the dialogue has successfully concluded with an outcome that respects the national interest in a manner that does not permit foreign interference (2/n)
According to the agreement, the key agenda issues are follows
Read 14 tweets
Press Release
Blaming the Victim & Saving the Perpetrator Under the Mantle of Human Rights
A response to the #US, #Australia, #Germany, #Denmark, the #Netherlands, #UK, #Canada & the #EU who have issued a Joint Statement on Oct 06 & 12 respectively.
#EritreaPrevails #Eritrea ImageImage
For almost 2 yrs, the US & EU desperately tried to downplay & whitewash TPLF’s high crimes of War of Insurrection with all its security & humanitarian ramifications in Ethiopia & the wider region. The ploy invariably included unwarranted accusations & scapegoating of #Eritrea
EU External Service issued a deplorable statement on Oct 6,2022 accusing #Eritrea, among other things, of “playing a destructive role in the Tigray conflict”& on Oct 12, the US, Australia, Germany, Denmark, Netherlands, UK & Canada issued a Joint Statement along the same lines.
Read 17 tweets
@mvreisen 1) It looks @mvreisen is loosing it. #TPLFTerrosristGroup must have shipped her “absho” (ኣብሾ) a known local hallucinogen. In disinformation campaign on behalf of TPLF, she is denying fact admitted by #TPLF: that it preemptively started the war on 3 Nov 2020. #EritreaPrevails
@mvreisen 2) Fact: #Eritrea didn’t start z 3/11/20 war in #Ethiopia. It was z making of @mvreisen patrons: #TPLFTerrosristGroup. To z contrary it’s TPLF that attacked #Eritrea by firing rockets. Her hate of everything #Eritrean has turned her into disinformation agent. #EritreaPrevails
@mvreisen 3) Neither #PFDJ nor #Eritrea are responsible 4 any atrocities in #Tigray. #TigrayGenocide was part of the pre-planned choreography of #TPLF enablers.

If there’s anyone responsible 4 crimes against #Eritreans in #Libya it’s @mvreisen & her criminal syndicate. #EritreaPrevails
Read 5 tweets
North Africa, Ethiopia and Middle East long range rainfall forecast bulletin:

The interaction between the two greatest Equatorial forests is having a massive impact on weather (see quoted thread for more).
This bulletin begins with a look at Ethiopia where rains over the #HornOfAfrica have been steadily building in April (img: today). A strong big rainy season is indicated by this, notwithstanding a strong La Nina which is typically associated with droughts (see quoted thread ^^).
We can see a glimpse of the GERD today - Easter Sunday in the Western Church - through the clouds (Rosieres Top Right - GERD Bottom Left). Satellite images of the dam - which this year will have its 2nd filling - may be increasingly hard to get with increasing cloud.
Read 40 tweets
#BloodyWinter: winter is coming to Ethiopia and it is going to be bloody

1/ In 2-3 months the rainy season will be upon Ethiopia. I am hoping against hope that I am wrong, but I am afraid it is going to be the bloodiest winter in our history!
2/ It appears, both #TPLF & its backers have given up their hope of bringing #TPLF back to power & have settled for an independent #Tigray to serve as their #HOA proxy to disrupt the region. The catch: An independent #Tigray can not be realized without #Welkait.
3/ #TPLF is using this respite to appease the populace severely affected by food shortage and the terrible cost of the loss from the previous campaign in terms of human life and replenish its dwindling supply to feed its army.
Read 16 tweets
While the #TPLF is in disarray & its leaders are sending mixed messages of defeat & tac/l retreat, the US, its Client States & the MSM would not stop aiding &abetting the Terrorist Grp. It has been apparently clear that, all along, this was a brutal proxy war on their watch. 1/10
2/10 It all began with an insurrectionist coordinated attack on multiple posts of the ENDF NC that massacred thousands of troops, looted heavy armaments & declared, publicly, that they are after the nation, its neighboring regions & Eritrea. The forceful regime change appears to
3/10 have received all the blessings of the Enablers that, to this day, found it hard to unequivocally condemn the Terrorist attack. Rather, they elevated the Terrorist to an EQUAL & legitimate power & demanded an "unconditional ceasefire" & the "cessation of hostilities" by
Read 10 tweets
Cyclone Shaheen-Gulab (meaning: Falcon-Rose) is making landfall in Oman right now. In this animation we can see how its outflows are bringing rain to the Horn of Africa.

This week's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica #HoA and #MiddleEast follow:
Two animations follow showing the development of Shaheen-Gulab over the past 48 hours, into what looks like a well organised powerful storm. This animation begins on Friday night and runs for 24 hours.
And this one starts yesterday afternoon and runs till about half an hour ago. #ArabianStorms [@Arab_Storms]
Read 13 tweets
Aren’t you supposed to be focusing on stopping a war in Ethiopia, not causing trouble in Eritrea?

@SecBlinken, @JoeBiden, @JakeSullivan46, just over a day after you launched a peace initiative, acting @AsstSecStateAF Robert F. Godec seems to be back to fighting the Cold War.
If the USG genuinely wants a “different path” and peace in the #HoA this needs to stop. And it’s stopping needs to be signaled.

This mess was actively facilitated by the current acting @AsstSecStateAF. The most useful thing for him to call for would be TPLF forces to withdraw.
TPLF is still actively plotting and committing atrocities and spectacular misinformation operations to manipulate you, whilst telling you they are willing to comply.

Robert F. Godec has been overseeing all this since January. He needs to be replaced.
Read 5 tweets
Before he was abducted 3 days ago in broad daylight in downtown Nairobi, @AbdiwahabSheik7 an analyst of EAC affairs and frequent contributor of erudite critiques of the TPLF warned that he was being targetted by SAHAN research, an private intel organisation led by @dibjir.
Matt Bryden, aka @Dibjir's @SahanResearch works closely with the TPLF, including this IV which telegraphed TPLF's intentions to attack Afar in an effort to close the Djibouti, Addis transport route and choke off supply routes to the Ethiopian Capital.…
@Dibjir @SahanResearch Sahan is based in Nairobi, where it reputedly has a fairly large operation involved in support of the TPLF Misinformation/Disinformation operations around its war of secession in Tigray.

Yesterday the kidnapping was reported on Kenyan TV.
Read 24 tweets
The Robert F. Godec threads.

These three threads highlight the same nacent @JoeBiden Admin U.S. National Security Administration chaos that led to the debacle in Afghanistan. Only this time the disaster is still avoidable if @SecBlinken and @JakeSullivan act.
The first thread looks at @AsstSecStateAF Robert Godec's background and appointment, which took place on February 20th 2021, the day of the inauguration.
The 2nd thread begins with the conclusion of the first and spotlights efforts by the @StateDept's acting @AsstSecStateAF Godec - who is responsible #HOA and #Ethiopia policy implementation to get Congressional approval for his activities.
Read 13 tweets
Today's rainfall/weather update for the #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follows.

The short version is that the peak of the rainy season may have passed, but there are signs of another Indian Monsoon surge coming in 10-12 days in long range forecasts.
Here is the long-range GFS model PWAT forecast for the Indian Monsoon. Towards the end it strengthens and we see high levels of moisture heading for the #HornOfAfrica.
Here is a big picture view of the greater region including all the areas that this weekly bulletin will cover.

A review of the past week showed that Sahel-Sahara rainfall has continued, as has rainfall in northern Sudan. The northerly rain is however not particularly heavy.
Read 36 tweets
Very interesting context here to @StateDeptSpox statement regarding need for “negotiated ceasefire”.

This could have been called for at end of June when the Govt. of Ethiopia announced a unilateral ceasefire, but it wasn’t, in the meantime incalculable damage has been done.
Here are Reda’s tweets. In chronological order the softening of position started 2 days ago.

It’s amusing that these can be seen as conciliatory. And for Reda they genuinely can. Militarily the positioning of Eritrean forces appears to be playing an important role here. ImageImageImage
The latest restatement of preconditions for negotiations (which are worth reading if only for their WTAF value) makes one wonder whether the U.S. back channel efforts here have really been successful yet. We shall soon see. ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
The full monsoon has now arrived in the #HornOfAfrica. Very intense rain has begun in the Nile Basin and will continue for a week or more.

What will happen in the #MiddleEast is less clear, but it will involve a lot of rain and #ArabianStorms. Today's forecasts follow.
This animation shows the flow of rain bearing clouds heading south west across Pakistan which signals the first phase of an event which will intensify significantly over coming days.
This animation shows under wrapped in pulsating bands of storms headed both East and West. It is this intense period of Monsoon activity which is powering the phenomena that his bringing this rain to Yemen, Oman and Saudi Arabia.
Read 40 tweets
Since the last rainfall forecast bulletin on Saturday, the forecast West Sahara rainfall burst has come and gone, and the forecast #ME/#HoA rainfall burst is now about to commence.

Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
First an update on Western Sahara. The peak of the storms came overnight on Saturday morning. Here we see a 6 hour rainfall animation from 2.30am to 8.30am.
And here we see a wider view following sunrise on Saturday morning. If you are curious as to what was forecast Saturday's rainfall forecast thread is quoted below >>
Read 47 tweets
2 recent #pictures on day 5 of the 2021 Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam #GERD filling.

1. Satellite image this morning.
2 Date unknown, posted on Twitter today.

Meanwhile it looks as if the #HOA rain is about to get heavier. Today's forecasts follow.
Today's big picture hasn't changed much.
TS #Elsa can still be seen bottom left, she will be crossing Cuba later today.
Bottom right we see storms over #Ethiopia and #Yemen.
In Europe the #EuropeBigWet continues with North Atlantic weather moving in from West.
This @NASA Modis satellite image series zooms in from...

1. The entire Nile
2. Ethiopia
3. #Abbay basin. Can you spot the #GERD?
4. Tigray.
Read 25 tweets
The convective storms over Ethiopia and Sudanese Nile Basins tonight is remarkably intense. Bringing massive amounts of rain across a huge area, including the #Abbay /#BlueNile basin, on the 4th day of #GERD filling.

Today's #HOA #ME and #NorthAfrica rainfall forecasts follow.
In this wider view you can see the full size of today's rain areas which extended deep into Sudan later in the afternoon.
These two images are at sunset the sizes of the two large convective areas, the eastern one extends well north into Eritrea and covers Tigray and the entire #Abbay Basin. The first image provides an idea of size. Each storm area is larger than the UK and Ireland.
Read 29 tweets
A big day for rains in the #HornOfAfrica and particularly in the #Abbay Basin today, possibly the biggest this year. #GERD

Today's rainfall forecasts for the #HoA, #MiddleEast and #NorthAfrica follows.
Here we see a closeup of the storms building this afternoon over the Ethiopia Highlands, including Tigray and Eritrea. As well we can see explosive storms along the Red Sea Coast in Yemen and the Kingdom of #SaudiArabia.
This high resolution satellite image shows the entire Nile Basin this morning, with clouds well north over Sudan as the day began.
Read 22 tweets
Today's forecasts for #NorthAfrica, and the #HornOfAfrica follow.

This 1st image shows the monsoon spreading westwards across the Bay of Bengal. I think it is relevant to the rains in Africa but you will need to wait till the final tweet to see how.

#Ethiopia #Sudan #GERD #Nile
The strength of the West African Monsoon continues to grow as you can see in the animation above. During the current active period (See also #EuropeBigWet) the Sahara is forecast to reach a point where there is water over most of the great desert. Here are 10d rainfall forecasts.
Read 21 tweets
Well its hard to know where to begin with today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts.

The action is now further north, and west. Here we see the consequences of the first phase of what appears to be becoming a continuous #WesternSaharaPlume.
An bit of a battle us underway between a high pressure system over Northern Erope and the plume which is entering at the bottom left in this image of Jetstream level 250Hpa 11km high winds.
While the model forecasts remain optimistic that an orderly jetstream may eventually appear, so far this has not happened. And in the meantime these winds are picking up moisture in the tropics and taking it in large quantities to places where its not expected.
Read 27 tweets
A big day for #WestAfricaMonsoon observation.

A full plume event is becoming obvious in central & eastern Europe + Russia. We also have thunderstorms over the Red Sea, and a low circulation heading towards a collision with water vapour over Israel.

Today's forecasts follow.
Visually speaking this is the most extraordinary looking satellite observation of the day.

Now into its sixth day the #EastAfricaWaterPlume has been generating lots of rain over the Red Sea, both last night and today, & right now just off the coast of Jeddah. @Arab_Storms
Here we see a wider view while it is not that obvious in this view, the stream of water vapour heading up the Western Sahara coast is running fast and hot. Later I will post an initial post tracking its impact in Europe. But for now its worth looking closer at North Africa.
Read 27 tweets
With Cyclone #Yaas soaking up all the moisture east of the #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica it was a relatively calm day. Albeit not without another intense set of storms along the Red Sea Coast in the Jinzan mountains.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
The days began relatively quiet on the #WestAfricanMonsoon front thanks to Cyclone #Yaas. This image shows a strip from the Libyan Coast across the Sahara down to the Congo.
And it remained fairly quiet over the great forests of equatorial Africa today. But further West over the Ivory Coast and the West Sahara the #WestAfricaWaterPlume continued to pump water vapour across the Sahara into Europe.
Read 16 tweets
Today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts follow.

Image: A @NASA Modis image of Egypt, the red sea and the Horn of Africa sources of the Nile taken this morning.
First up we have today's 10-Day accumulated rainfall forecasts for North Africa from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC and KMA weather models.
Here are today's #HOA forecasts beginning with #Ethiopia 10-day rainfall from the ECMWF, GFS and KMA 17th May model runs. #Sudan, #SouthSudan #Somalia #Somaliland
Read 9 tweets
Tonight Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Tauktae is already a Cat 3 Hurricane equivalent Cyclone, 24 hours ahead of schedule and tearing up the West Indian coastline on its way north.

Today's #ME and #HOA rainfall forecasts follow. Image
Three more views from the image.

The first shows the positioning of this morning's @NASA Modis picture of Tauktae in relation to the coast. Nearly half the central convection area is over India.

The 2nd shows a wider perspective. & the 3rd provides borders for orientation. ImageImageImage
Further west here are four images from today of the #HornOfAfrica, the #NileDelta, the #Levant and #UAE + #Oman. ImageImageImageImage
Read 18 tweets
The Horn of Africa this morning @NASA worldview, got a great view and more pictures will be included in today's rainfall forecast thread for #Ethiopia #HoA and the #MiddleEast.

Today's forecasts follow.
Here's the first. A view mostly of #Sudan, capturing both the #WhiteNile and #BlueNile as well as part of the Nile below Sudan on its way to Egypt. On the right hand side Lake Tana can be seen through the clouds.

If you look very carefully you may be able to see #GERD.
This view which captures the area below that in the previous image has borders on it to make it easier to see where the abundant green in the firsy image in this thread is located. The rains of the past few weeks appear to be doing God's work in the region.
Read 17 tweets

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