#derivatives#nse
Data analysis not an easy task as it's look like.
Today I am talking about specially long or short buildup only. Everyone knows including book says when price going up with oi up is long buildup.
But in reality only few mins or one day buildup not enough to summarise it also confirmation required after any kind of buildup.
Let's explore more...
Any big players in intra or swing trader can't enter in mkt at once it's slow process.
And took almost good time for swing trader sometimes 3-7 days even more. For intraday it's in range of 30-60 mins.
Never judge direction so soon, until after buildup range not break or if some technical combination much better (optional).
In second side option derivative we see buildup happen mostly neutral and its show sentiment but direction only lead by unwinding one side. Big ppl also go wrong and one smart money also hv fear of another smart money.
So mostly when unwinding happened it's lead big move. So as conclusion: do analysis properly, don't jump on short-term oi development. For analysis previously I posted intra tool today I m posting eod data analysis where anyone can easily find oi buildup with narrow range easily.
Need to take last 7days bhavcopy and paste in it. Thanks to old friend Sri for making and sharing with us.
Name of file: Template_for_Futures_Daily
Wat today happen with nifty 16450 ce and yesterday bnf option, it can happen to anyone. Either you trade any time with sl-m. Even in stocks further worst.
Every type of system hv some limit. Suppose someone hv 100cr aum for one trade then impossible to exit at price sll or slm.
Even in urgency you can think wat will happen. Also nowadays one kind of quick money scheme like intraday option selling very famous along all ppl and everyone hv little various like 20-50% series stoploss. When they start hitting; huge demand of buyers n no sellers to fill.
Definitely smart ppl already taking advantage. Now question is how we can survive with slm? Answer is straight No. Few execution system can precise but can't ignore this problem.
Case Study of Mine Mindtree Earning trade 1. Started with 1:3 Call ratio of 4k credit approx. 2. In dip volume missing so converted to 1:2 yesterday. 3. after morning gap when ORB trigger converted into butterfly. 4. Also took CSP sell OTM put. (optional)
Overall stop 3k holding.
without CSP.
Trade started with following things in mind, liquidity on put side poor unlike call side really good liquidity also looks good vol short trade but high beta stock and as per chart and data wise choose to sell R2.
Risk Free Projection (RFP) Ver. 2.0
RFP basically a way where we can reduce/remove our losses from position but it can be only possible by time and profit running only. This is also subpart of Time-Warp option strategy. Lets explore in detail
1. Locking Profit
When your long call/put position already in profit then simple buy hedge (convert to spread). this addon make spread formation where ur loss almost offset. advice only do when 50% premium gain and view still sideways to directional.
2. Moving Leg
When you have spread and already running profit. you can even move your any leg closure and this will make almost risk free. cons- theta of position reduced; so profit potential going down with this move.
LPT vs HPT
One thing commonly I see in new commers they focus a lot on high probability of trade, for that they try to be prefer big range for trading from start. As static edge of most occurance of winning with you no doubt.
Even I go sometimes HPT strategy but after learning a lot found this is also kind of myth to pick big range. So let's start and sharing my experience about it.
Both hv own pros and cons. Both good as well.
1. Low probability of trade: generally hv low probability of profit (POP), but as per risk reward (RR) very good trade but also enough credit to manage with various scenarios easily. Here edge is not statics but your trade management skills.