1.@AmbassadorTai not a trade but US Industrial Policy speech: "make smart domestic investment to increase competitiveness. invest in R&D and clean energy technology, strengthen manufacturing base, incentivize to Buy American up and down the supply chain." Self reliance anyone?
2. I thought I was the optimistic one for both US and China, but Marko Papic of Clocktower argued that in the near future, US-China relationship will get WORSE AND both US and China will have growth that surprises on the POSITIVE side!
3. In some way, it's not an unreasonable proposition. Both US/China are going to invest heavily at home in human/physical capital, which should bid well for near term growth. It's easy to see China/US in an investment race. The bills coming out of congress are in Trillions.
4. Oct. high month for Taiwan attentions. National Days back and back (Oct. 1st and 10th). TW local issue referendums coming up. Ruling party DPP is not favored. Owning toys like planes and ships and show off occasionally quite understandable for a mom.
5. If you just saw WSJ scoop on US special ops forces in Taiwan, be sure to check out this news article from 1 year ago (Nov 9, 2020). In the article, Pentagon spokesman "reports about U.S. Marines in Taiwan are inaccurate". taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4049035
6. On Thursday (Nov. 12, 2020), Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) changed its tune and issued a statement in which it claimed that media reports about the U.S. Marine Corps assisting Taiwan Marines in military training are "not consistent with the facts."
7. Pro-KMT, top TW newspaper UDN reports Xi will give a speech for 110th anniversary of Xinhai Revolution that toppled Qing Dynasty/led to the first Republic in China. Again, context matters. Every president has done it and put a slight language spin. udn.com/news/story/733…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1. Is financial market pricing in some heightened Taiwan Strait war risk this week? Yes, a little. No perfect measure. With China on holiday last wk, can attribute some pop of 5-yr CDS price as caused by heighted attention, which happens around Oct with back to back national days
2. To put in context, China 5 Yr CDS value is 48.87, reveals a 0.81% implied probability of default, on a 40% recovery rate supposed. US 5 Yr CDS is 17.4, reveals a 0.29% implied probability of default. Recent increase in US mostly by the debt ceiling fight. #MintTheCoin hahaha
3. @PredictIt betting market doesn't have a Taiwan specific market, but has 3 China related contracts. Betting on who would be confirmed for next US Ambassador to China, and Pres. Xi's chance of staying as party General Secretary for next 10 years.
1. Another question I constantly get: Can Chinese data be trusted? High Frequency data shop like Baidu or other private data source advertise their data showing similar thing as govt economic data, but more real time = acknowledgement of recent higher quality govt economic data.
2. Around 2014, the central government was extremely concerned that several northern provinces’ reported GDP numbers were overinflated by local officials. In 2016, the LiaoNing province in the north was asked to reduce its reported GDP figure by 22.4%.
3. 2018, after the fourth national economic census, 12 out of 15 northern provinces’ GDP estimates were adjusted lower, while 14 out of 16 southern provinces were adjusted higher. Jilin and HeilongJiang, both northern provinces, have respectively been adjusted down more than 20%.
1. Is #Evergrande stock suspended news? If you've followed me, you know I've said many times the screenplay on how to restructure is largely already laid out in past restructuring of companies like HNA or Huarong. #HNA Group is turned into a trust to pay to bond holders.
2. How long will it take? Majority of HNA restructuring took about 10 months, with the rest still ongoing. It's broken into 4 pieces with three parts introducing strategic equity investors, with the rest turned into a trust for bond holders.
3. How about the those wealth management products? HNA bankruptcy procedure mentioned that if all law is followed, they are likely so low in debt priority to get nothing. But it gave each person Yuan30k, with the rest going into official pool of debtors. Call it socialism.
1. Better headline: "Will Common Prosperity Make Japan Great Again?" MJGA!😂 We have deep expertise and top indexes on Japanese equity, particularly currency hedging. Below is the list of some under appreciated things of Japanese equity.
2. Underappreciated: If US fiscal/monetary response to the pandemic is large, Japan's is even a larger share of GDP. Lay person language: money money money for the economy.
3. Our colleague reviewed how Warren Buffet's Japanese investment last September has turned out. Following Mr. Buffet, global investors have been putting money there quietly for a while. wisdomtree.com/blog/2021-05-0…
1. A recap on #China electricity shortage, National Development and Reform Commission (#NDRC) that’s at the center of news, and what’s next.
2. Like any sudden shortage, it’s demand, supply, low slack and sudden shock. Due to low price of Coal in 2020 right after Covid, and government's push to reduce overcapacity and carbon emissions, coal inventory was low. China electricity is 70%+ coal power.
3. This September 3rd Moody’s report on coal sector was a 2 weeks early to be noticed. They mention 10 largest producers – all SOEs – accounted for nearly 53% of China's coal production in 2020, while three regions represented 70% of total production moodys.com/research/Moody…
1/6 #ChinaTech#Event#Watch: World Internet Conference 2021 opened in WuZhen, Zhejiang. Generally who's who in gov't and businesses showed up with topics as future themes: AI, Cybersecurity, CyberLaw, Internet Charity/ESG, 5G, Internet+Edu
2/6 Panel 1 Guests on AI
3/6 Panel 2 guests. Notice #Megvii and #Iflytek, both on US sanction lists.