10/5 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

* Combined Pos% below 10% as of 9/26
* Cases down 60% from 9/14 peak
* Total Beds tagged C19 down to 12.23%, census below 7800, down 42% from 8/25 peak
* Fatalities peaked 9/1 at 326. Declines since.

1/n
.
10/5 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/26 at 9.69%
* At the peak of this on 9/13, we were running 1.12 million tests a week. As of 9/26 we're running 821K per week
* Positive Tests are declining much more rapidly than total Tests
* Covidestim Rt at 0.68.

2/n
.
10/5 Cases

* 7DMA Case Peak was 9/14 at 15,419
* 10/5 7DMA is 6,228, down 60% from 9/14
* 7DMA rate of decline near 30% Week over week
* Into a steeper decline than we saw Summer 2020

3/n
.
10/5 Hospitalizations

* Single Day Peak was 8/25 - 13932
* Current census is 7769, lowest since 8/3
* 7DMA declining at a rate of 19.4% week over week
* % of beds tagged as Covid down to 12.23%. Peak was 21.88% on 8/30
* ICU beds in use lowest since 8/8

4/n
.
10/5 - Hosp Covid Admits

* Statewide Admits down 52% from their peak on 8/25
* Statewide 7DMA Rate of Decline of 21% Week over Week
* New admissions are leading indicators on hospitalizations, so we will continue seeing hospitalization declines in the coming days

5/n
.
10/5 Fatalities

* Fatality Peak was 9/1, 326
* Compare to Winter peak of 1/13 - 381. Virtually identical hospitalization curve
* Winter peak had 23 days w over 300 fatalities. Summer 2021 had 3
* Summer 2021 finally overtook Summer 2020 w nearly 40% more hospitalizations

6/n
.
10/5 Conclusion

* Full decline in leading through trailing indicators
* Looks like we will stay in full decline for a while
* All around good week!

7/end

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More from @therealarod1984

1 Oct
9/30 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

This thread is more for me than anyone else. Hope you get something out of it. Been looking forward to putting this out. I'm doing better. Appreciate all of your concerns and prayers over the past 2 weeks!

1/n
.
9/30 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/22 at 11.29%
* At the peak of this on 9/13, we were running 1.12 million tests a week. As of 9/22 were running 870K per week.
* Covidestim Rt at 0.60. Never seen it that low

2/n
. ImageImageImage
9/30 Cases

* 7DMA Case Peak was 9/14 at 15,419
* 9/30 7DMA is 8,204
* 7DMA has been in double digit decline for 15 days.

3/n
. ImageImageImage
Read 8 tweets
18 Sep
9/17 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Hospitalizations with another good drop
2) Cases continue steady decline
3) Pos% & Testing not showing pre Labor day strength.
4) 377 Fatalities reported, -23 vs last week.

1/n
.
9/17 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/9 at 13.41%
* Testing and positive tests so far don't appear will fully rebound to pre-Labor Day highs
* Covidestim Rt down from 0.72 to 0.69

2/n
.
9/17 Cases

* Case Peak 9/14
* 13.9K Cases reported, vs 19.5K last Fri
* Case 7DMA WoW declines 9%.
* Now we watch to see if the testing drop off translates in the coming days and we do not see a new case peak.

3/n
.
Read 5 tweets
16 Sep
9/16 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Hospitalizations with big drop of -220
2) Cases big decline vs last week
3) Pos% & Testing, like cases, are all over the place.
4) 372 Fatalities reported, -36 vs last week.

1/n
.
9/16 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/8 at 13.58%
* We will see what Monday looks like as far as shake out on all the post-school testing, and Labor Day hiccups, its all a mess
* Covidestim Rt up from 0.68 to 0.72

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
9/16 Cases

* Case Peak 9/14
* 14.9K Cases reported, vs 23.7K last Thurs
* Case 7DMA WoW declines 3%. Literally all over the place
* Meh

3/n
. ImageImage
Read 9 tweets
14 Sep
9/14 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) New & likely final Case peak
2) Hospitalizations continue to drop
3) Pos% & testing hit Labor Day decline
4) Fatality breakdown on 296 reported

1/n
.
9/14 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/6 at 13.14%.
* Testing hits Labor Day wall, with big decline, and doubtful it comes back to same rate. 100K+ tests taken right out of the 7DMA on a single day.
* Covidestim Rt up from 0.69 to 0.74

2/n
.
9/14 Cases

* New Case Peak 9/14
* 17.3K Cases reported, vs 6.0K last Tues
* Case 7DMA WoW up 31%. Literally all over the place
* This should be the final peak. With Labor Day impacting testing numbers, and huge comps coming up, should not be seeing another new peak set

3/n
.
Read 9 tweets
13 Sep
9/13 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Hospitalizations with a strong decline today
2) Cases- chance of new peak tomorrow, likely last possible new peak date
3) Pos% & testing have flattened thru 1st week of Sep
4) Fatality breakdown on 46 reported

1/n
.
9/13 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/5 at 13.41%. It has flattened out into first of Sep as of right now
* Testing new high of 1.075 Million tests per week on 9/3
* Rate of growth still all near 0 or decline
* Covidestim Rt declines to 0.69!!

2/n
.
9/13 Cases

* 8.1K Cases reported, vs 2.6K last Labor
* Case 7DMA WoW down 3%
* Peak is 9/5
* If 14.7K cases tomorrow, new peak will be set. Which is nuts since Hospitalizations peaked end of August. Its a factor of massive testing and case reporting antiquity
.
3/n
Read 9 tweets
12 Sep
9/12 Texas Case, Hosp & Fatalities: Mobile Edition

THREAD:

Summary:

* Cases down vs last Sun
* Hospitalizations with a decent drop
* Admits continue strong decline

1/n
.
9/12 Cases

Cases today - 3952
Last Sunday - 6844
Change vs last week - minus 2.9k
7DMA Rate of decline - 13.6%
Today 7DMA - 12999
Peak 7DMA - 15039 9/5

Two super weak comps coming up with about 15K in the 7DMA peak bank. After that its brutal post Labor Day catchup comps
.
2/n
9/12 Hospitalizations

* Hospitalizations - 13230 down from 13285
* Vs yesterday -55. Compared to last Sun daily decline of -25
* 7DMA Rate of decline - 2.8%
* ICU - 3758, -58 from yesterday

The dam should be about to break. Admits dropping more strongly than census
.
3/n
Read 6 tweets

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