* Everything falling fast
* Combined Pos% below 9% as of 9/28
* Cases 7DMA nearing 6000
* Total Beds tagged C19 down to 10.83%, census below 7200, down 49% from 8/25
* Fatalities peaked 9/1 at 326. Declines since
* Total positivity rate as of 9/28 at 8.95%
* At the peak of this on 9/13, we were running 1.12 million tests a week. As of 9/28 we're running 781K per week
* Positive Tests descending through 7DMA of 10K
* Covidestim Rt at 0.69
2/n .
10/7 Cases
* 7DMA Case Peak was 9/14 at 15,419
* 10/5 7DMA is 6,029, down 61% from 9/14
* 7DMA rate of decline at 27% Week over week
3/n .
10/7 Hospitalizations
* Single Day Peak was 8/25 - 13932
* Current census is 7117, lowest since 8/1
* 7DMA declining at a rate of 19.7% week over week
* % of beds tagged as Covid down to 10.82%. Peak was 21.88% on 8/30
* ICU beds in use lowest since 8/6
4/n .
10/7 - Hosp Covid Admits
* Statewide Admits down 56% from their peak on 8/23
* Statewide Admits 7DMA Rate of Decline of 23.9% Week over Week
* Hospitalizations will continue their steep drop
5/n .
10/7 Fatalities
* In the coming days plan to do some analysis and comparisons of the 3 waves. Hospitalizations vs Fatalities. Put a hard number on the reduction in fatalities we saw during Summer 2021 vs previous.
6/n .
10/7 Conclusion
* This thing is ovah. We should see serious declines in hospitalizations over the next 3 days with weekend discharge patterns.
* Declines across the board should continue for a few more weeks at the minimum and then we will see.
* Yippi Kai Yay
7/end
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* Combined Pos% below 10% as of 9/26
* Cases down 60% from 9/14 peak
* Total Beds tagged C19 down to 12.23%, census below 7800, down 42% from 8/25 peak
* Fatalities peaked 9/1 at 326. Declines since.
* Total positivity rate as of 9/26 at 9.69%
* At the peak of this on 9/13, we were running 1.12 million tests a week. As of 9/26 we're running 821K per week
* Positive Tests are declining much more rapidly than total Tests
* Covidestim Rt at 0.68.
2/n .
10/5 Cases
* 7DMA Case Peak was 9/14 at 15,419
* 10/5 7DMA is 6,228, down 60% from 9/14
* 7DMA rate of decline near 30% Week over week
* Into a steeper decline than we saw Summer 2020
This thread is more for me than anyone else. Hope you get something out of it. Been looking forward to putting this out. I'm doing better. Appreciate all of your concerns and prayers over the past 2 weeks!
1/n .
9/30 Indicators
* Total positivity rate as of 9/22 at 11.29%
* At the peak of this on 9/13, we were running 1.12 million tests a week. As of 9/22 were running 870K per week.
* Covidestim Rt at 0.60. Never seen it that low
2/n .
9/30 Cases
* 7DMA Case Peak was 9/14 at 15,419
* 9/30 7DMA is 8,204
* 7DMA has been in double digit decline for 15 days.
1) Hospitalizations with another good drop 2) Cases continue steady decline 3) Pos% & Testing not showing pre Labor day strength. 4) 377 Fatalities reported, -23 vs last week.
* Total positivity rate as of 9/9 at 13.41%
* Testing and positive tests so far don't appear will fully rebound to pre-Labor Day highs
* Covidestim Rt down from 0.72 to 0.69
2/n .
9/17 Cases
* Case Peak 9/14
* 13.9K Cases reported, vs 19.5K last Fri
* Case 7DMA WoW declines 9%.
* Now we watch to see if the testing drop off translates in the coming days and we do not see a new case peak.
1) Hospitalizations with big drop of -220 2) Cases big decline vs last week 3) Pos% & Testing, like cases, are all over the place. 4) 372 Fatalities reported, -36 vs last week.
* Total positivity rate as of 9/8 at 13.58%
* We will see what Monday looks like as far as shake out on all the post-school testing, and Labor Day hiccups, its all a mess
* Covidestim Rt up from 0.68 to 0.72
2/n .
9/16 Cases
* Case Peak 9/14
* 14.9K Cases reported, vs 23.7K last Thurs
* Case 7DMA WoW declines 3%. Literally all over the place
* Meh
* Total positivity rate as of 9/6 at 13.14%.
* Testing hits Labor Day wall, with big decline, and doubtful it comes back to same rate. 100K+ tests taken right out of the 7DMA on a single day.
* Covidestim Rt up from 0.69 to 0.74
2/n .
9/14 Cases
* New Case Peak 9/14
* 17.3K Cases reported, vs 6.0K last Tues
* Case 7DMA WoW up 31%. Literally all over the place
* This should be the final peak. With Labor Day impacting testing numbers, and huge comps coming up, should not be seeing another new peak set
1) Hospitalizations with a strong decline today 2) Cases- chance of new peak tomorrow, likely last possible new peak date 3) Pos% & testing have flattened thru 1st week of Sep 4) Fatality breakdown on 46 reported
* Total positivity rate as of 9/5 at 13.41%. It has flattened out into first of Sep as of right now
* Testing new high of 1.075 Million tests per week on 9/3
* Rate of growth still all near 0 or decline
* Covidestim Rt declines to 0.69!!
2/n .
9/13 Cases
* 8.1K Cases reported, vs 2.6K last Labor
* Case 7DMA WoW down 3%
* Peak is 9/5
* If 14.7K cases tomorrow, new peak will be set. Which is nuts since Hospitalizations peaked end of August. Its a factor of massive testing and case reporting antiquity
. 3/n