If you've heard that current on-chain data are totally dissimilar to past cycles, you'd see for yourself.

If we look at the #BTC's 14-day Delta Gradient metric, we can find similar patterns in the bull phases of 2021 & 2013.

It's hard not to be bullish! Cycle Peak ~Dec 2021. Image
Notes:
1/
a. Market Gradient measures #BTC's market cap gradient

b. Realized Gradient measures BTC's realized cap gradient. Realized cap is the value of all BTC in circulation at the price they've last moved

c. Delta Gradient= Market Gradient - Realized Gradient
1d. 14-day #BTC Delta Gradient measures the difference between the 14-day Market Gradient & 14-day Realized Gradient.

If this metric is positive, the price of BTC is on an uptrend (bullish) & vice versa
2/
a. By lining up the metric at #1 in 2013 & 2021, we can see a clear rhyming pattern of the #BTC Delta Gradient with 4 waves- 1, 2, 2a, 3 & 4

b. It took BTC 153 days to get from Wave #1 to its cycle peak in 2013. If this rhymes in 2021, BTC may peak in late Nov. to early Dec.

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More from @AllenAu11

11 Oct
I have built a simple model for tracking #BTC's cycle top & bottom. This is inspired by Philip Swift's Golden Ratio Multiplier, but I use Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples instead.

Top: Between 5.618 & 8.618 Fib Lines
Bottom: 0.382 Fib Line
Cycle top: $260K-$410K? Image
Notes:
1. The model is built simply using the 350D simple moving average (SMA) of #BTC's price. From this, we use Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of BTC's price to arrive at various lines, namely 0.382, 2.618, 3.618, 5.618, 8.618, 13.618.
2. In the original Golden Ratio Multiplier model, it is noted that each top of #BTC was hitting decreasing Fib sequence multiples of 350D SMA (21, 13, 8, 5, 3) so the current cycle peak should be in the range of 2x. Although this makes sense, I don't think this will happen. Why?
Read 10 tweets
8 Oct
Why is $GBTC still trading at a discount? Would it trade back at a premium? Will we see a blow-off top for $GBTC as #BTC’s price goes parabolic?

TLDR: Long story. No, unless certain conditions prevail, but not this year. Yes, projected peak $GBTC price: $150-$240.
If you don't know much about $GBTC (Grayscale #Bitcoin Trust), you could read the following tweet about $GBTC as a quick refresher.

1/ Why is $GBTC trading at a discount?
$GBTC will be in discount when its price is trading lower than its #BTC holdings/share outstanding. Simply, investors are unwilling to buy $GBTC unless its value its lower relative to BTC.
Read 19 tweets
8 Oct
The following🧵is a refresher about the Grayscale #Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC) if you want background information about this closed-end BTC fund. Enjoy!

* +ve: Positive
-ve: Negative
NAV: Net Asset Value
AUM: Assets Under Management
DCG: Digital Currency Group, Grayscale's parent
A/ $GBTC used to be the only game in town if one wants exposure to #BTC, but couldn't invest in it directly or wants to invest in a BTC proxy for their 401(k) for tax reasons or doesn't want the hassle to store their private keys. Investors can trade $GBTC at OTCQX Exchange.
B/ $GBTC is backed 100% by #BTC. Accredited investors can buy Grayscale's privately-placed $GBTC shares at NAV (value of BTC holdings/share). When that happens, Grayscale will buy BTC to back up its shares. Currently, 1 $GBTC share = 0.000935656 BTC.
Read 15 tweets
6 Oct
I tweeted #BTC would hit $51.4K yesterday & it did shortly thereafter. What's next?

TLDR:
Max. price for this rally is ~$73K. Revisit ATH or even set new ATH by 10/31/21
Why?
-Buy & Sell Oscillator & MRGO-14: Buy
-Futures: Bullish w/ some selling
-Options: Bullish
-TA: Bullish
1/ MRGO-14 uses the difference in changes in #BTC's market & realized price to find buy/sell signals for BTC.

Green ➡️ Buy
Red ➡️ Sell

MGRO-14 has flipped green since 10/4/21. Image
2/ My #BTC Buy & Sell Oscillator has been >1 since 10/5/21.

Simple
Oscillator crosses above 1➡️Buy
Oscillator crosses below 1➡️Sell
Oscillator>2➡️Interim/cycle top

Advanced
Oscillator>1 &📈➡️Buy
Oscillator>1 &📉➡️Take profit
Oscillator<1 &📉➡️Short
Oscillator<1 &📈➡️Take profit Image
Read 14 tweets
26 Sep
Using Fed Tapering Signals & #BTC Coin Maturation Waves to Time BTC's Cycle Peak

TLDR: The 2021 BTC bull phase is similar to that of 2013 as they're under similar Fed QE policies. On-chain data show similar patterns.

Cycle peak likely in Dec. 2021. BTC isn't in a bear phase.
1a/ I have tweeted a number of times using TA & on-chain data to show that the 2021 #BTC bull phase has more similar traits to that of 2013 rather than that of 2017. The driving force behind these similar price action could be US Fed monetary policy. Why?
1b/ In 2013, the Fed initiated QE3. Since March 2020, the Fed has launched QE Infinity. In both cases, the markets are awash with lots of liquidity, albeit on a different scale. In 2017, there was no QE & the Fed launched a B/S normalization program- quantitative tightening.
Read 17 tweets
8 Sep
𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗸 𝟯𝟱 '𝟮𝟭

Price Action Indicators

TLDR: 📈
1. Miner metrics- Slightly bullish
2. Supply metrics- Bullish
3. Institution demand- Slightly Bullish
4. Network metric- Slightly bullish
5. Trading- Buy
𝟭. 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀
a. The mean hash rate for #BTC miners has bottomed & is trending higher. It's forming an ascending channel, which is a bullish pattern.

The hash rate held the upward trend & pierced through the middle of the parallel channel last week. Bullish.
1b (i) The Hash Ribbon is a market indicator that assumes that #BTC's price tends to reach a bottom when miners capitulate & that's when BTC's price momentum switches from negative to positive- a good buying opportunity.
Read 16 tweets

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