I have built a simple model for tracking #BTC's cycle top & bottom. This is inspired by Philip Swift's Golden Ratio Multiplier, but I use Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples instead.
Top: Between 5.618 & 8.618 Fib Lines
Bottom: 0.382 Fib Line
Cycle top: $260K-$410K?
Notes: 1. The model is built simply using the 350D simple moving average (SMA) of #BTC's price. From this, we use Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of BTC's price to arrive at various lines, namely 0.382, 2.618, 3.618, 5.618, 8.618, 13.618.
2. In the original Golden Ratio Multiplier model, it is noted that each top of #BTC was hitting decreasing Fib sequence multiples of 350D SMA (21, 13, 8, 5, 3) so the current cycle peak should be in the range of 2x. Although this makes sense, I don't think this will happen. Why?
1/ Why is $GBTC trading at a discount?
$GBTC will be in discount when its price is trading lower than its #BTC holdings/share outstanding. Simply, investors are unwilling to buy $GBTC unless its value its lower relative to BTC.
The following🧵is a refresher about the Grayscale #Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC) if you want background information about this closed-end BTC fund. Enjoy!
* +ve: Positive
-ve: Negative
NAV: Net Asset Value
AUM: Assets Under Management
DCG: Digital Currency Group, Grayscale's parent
A/ $GBTC used to be the only game in town if one wants exposure to #BTC, but couldn't invest in it directly or wants to invest in a BTC proxy for their 401(k) for tax reasons or doesn't want the hassle to store their private keys. Investors can trade $GBTC at OTCQX Exchange.
B/ $GBTC is backed 100% by #BTC. Accredited investors can buy Grayscale's privately-placed $GBTC shares at NAV (value of BTC holdings/share). When that happens, Grayscale will buy BTC to back up its shares. Currently, 1 $GBTC share = 0.000935656 BTC.
I tweeted #BTC would hit $51.4K yesterday & it did shortly thereafter. What's next?
TLDR:
Max. price for this rally is ~$73K. Revisit ATH or even set new ATH by 10/31/21
Why?
-Buy & Sell Oscillator & MRGO-14: Buy
-Futures: Bullish w/ some selling
-Options: Bullish
-TA: Bullish
1/ MRGO-14 uses the difference in changes in #BTC's market & realized price to find buy/sell signals for BTC.
Green ➡️ Buy
Red ➡️ Sell
MGRO-14 has flipped green since 10/4/21.
2/ My #BTC Buy & Sell Oscillator has been >1 since 10/5/21.
Using Fed Tapering Signals & #BTC Coin Maturation Waves to Time BTC's Cycle Peak
TLDR: The 2021 BTC bull phase is similar to that of 2013 as they're under similar Fed QE policies. On-chain data show similar patterns.
Cycle peak likely in Dec. 2021. BTC isn't in a bear phase.
1a/ I have tweeted a number of times using TA & on-chain data to show that the 2021 #BTC bull phase has more similar traits to that of 2013 rather than that of 2017. The driving force behind these similar price action could be US Fed monetary policy. Why?
1b/ In 2013, the Fed initiated QE3. Since March 2020, the Fed has launched QE Infinity. In both cases, the markets are awash with lots of liquidity, albeit on a different scale. In 2017, there was no QE & the Fed launched a B/S normalization program- quantitative tightening.
𝟭. 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀
a. The mean hash rate for #BTC miners has bottomed & is trending higher. It's forming an ascending channel, which is a bullish pattern.
The hash rate held the upward trend & pierced through the middle of the parallel channel last week. Bullish.
1b (i) The Hash Ribbon is a market indicator that assumes that #BTC's price tends to reach a bottom when miners capitulate & that's when BTC's price momentum switches from negative to positive- a good buying opportunity.