Thread by @AllenAu11

I have built a simple model for tracking #BTC's cycle top & bottom. This is inspired by Philip Swift's Golden Ratio Multiplier, but I use Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples instead.

Top: Between 5.618 & 8.618 Fib Lines
Bottom: 0.382 Fib Line
Cycle top: $260K-$410K?

Notes:
1. The model is built simply using the 350D simple moving average (SMA) of #BTC's price. From this, we use Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of BTC's price to arrive at various lines, namely 0.382, 2.618, 3.618, 5.618, 8.618, 13.618.

2. In the original Golden Ratio Multiplier model, it is noted that each top of #BTC was hitting decreasing Fib sequence multiples of 350D SMA (21, 13, 8, 5, 3) so the current cycle peak should be in the range of 2x. Although this makes sense, I don't think this will happen. Why?

3a. As #BTC is entering the "Early Majority" phase in the S-curve adoption model, it shouldn't exhibit diminishing returns. Thus, although BTC hit decreasing Fib sequence multiples of 350D SMA for the past 4 peaks, this could be due to differences in the Fed's monetary policies.

3b. Whenever Fed initiated QE & #BTC's price topped the 3.618 Fib line, BTC would have a blow-off top that extended above the 8.618 Fib line.

In the 2017 BTC bull phase, when BTC's price topped the 3.618 Fib line, its blow-off top didn't surpass the 5.618 Fib line as no QE.

4a. 2011 was an anomaly when #BTC's price topped the 13.618 Fib line. Note also all #BTC tops are above the 2.618 Fib line.

Cycle peaks occur when BTC's price touches or pierced through:

With QE: 8.618 Fib line
Without QE: 5.618 Fib line

4b. Prior to the mid-cycle correction, #BTC crisscrossed between the 2.618 Fib line but was bounded by the 3.618 Fib & 350D SMA like the past 2 cycles. After the mid-cycle correction, BTC is moving much like the 2013 bull phase where price has ranged between 2.618 Fib & 350D SMA.

5. It is observed that the 0.382 Fib line is best to determine where the #BTC's bear phase low is-- when price touches, pierces through or hovers above it.

The 3.618 Fib line is a good gauge of the top of the dead cat bounce after the first major correction in the bear phase.

6a/ Assume the current #BTC cycle peak takes place on 12/20/21.

With QE, BTC's cycle peak in the current bull phase price could also top out around the 8.618 Fib line, but most likely be between the 5.618 Fib & 8.618 Fib lines.

6b/ Currently, the 5.618 Fib line & 8.618 Fib lines are growing at a respective rate of $565/day & $867/day. Thus, #BTC's cycle peak price may be between $260K to $410K by 12/20/21.

Note this could change depending on the 350D SMA of BTC's price.