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Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
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14 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
1/4
13 years ago today (October 14, 2008) was a very important event that forever changed financial history, and, I believe, provided a big tailwind to Satoshi Nakamoto's new project called bitcoin

A thread to explain
2/n

October 14, 2008 was infamous meeting at the New York Fed where the largest banks accepted $250 billion in TARP bailout money.

The financial world has not been the same since.

history.com/topics/21st-ce…
3/4
I believe this one act forever sullied the banking system's reputation that led to everything from the Tea Party to Occupy Wall Street.

I believe it also provided a big tailwind for a something coming just a few months later, Bitcoin, it’s first trade was January 3, 2009.
4/4
Note the only one person that accepted TARP money is still in the same position, Jamie Dimon.

I don’t think it is a coincidence the pre-bitcoin CEO is having the hardest time understanding it.

Post-bitcoin CEOs have a very difference view.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
16 Oct
1/13

The supply chain is running at capacity and cannot keep up with overstimulated demand thanks to 18 mos of fiscal/mon priming.

This suggests the fix is not expanding supply, hard in the ST, but to raise prices high enough to reduce demand.

A thread to explain

@RaoulGMI
2/13

The Los Angeles and Long Beach ports collectively unload just under one million containers a month. For the last year, they have been running at/near a record pace.

In other words, they are running as fast as they can. The problem is they are at their limit. Image
3/13

The much-heralded solution is to run the ports 24/7. The problem is the Long Beach terminals are already 24/7 and the LA terminals are already running 18 hours a day. These added hours at LA are only going to increase unloadings by 2%-3%. This is not going to matter much.
Read 13 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
12 Oct
1/8
The August "JOLTS" (Job Openings and Labor Turnover) Survey was out the morning.

As these charts show, a record 4.27 million, or 2.9% of the labor force, "quit" their jobs in August.
2/8
More than 20% of quits were in "accommodation and food services." This category is usually the largest, as the chart shows, this was a record for this group.

With some employers desperate for employees and willing to pay $21 to $22/hr for new hires, why work in fast food?
3/8
This type of report is often an indication of a strong labor mkt, employees are comfortable quitting thinking they can find another job.

But as the weak Aug and Sept payroll reports suggest, these newly minted "quits" are not running to new jobs.

reuters.com/world/us/us-jo….
Read 9 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
11 Oct
1/6
 Now 1800+ flights

*SOUTHWEST COO: STILL SHORT ON WORKERS, ESPECIALLY FLIGHT CREWS

*SOUTHWEST COO COMMENTS ON CANCELLATIONS IN VIDEO FOR EMPLOYEES

*SOUTHWEST COO: `WE NEED MORE STAFFING CUSHION FOR DISRUPTIONS'

*SOUTHWEST COO: `CANNOT TELL YOU THAT WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS'
2/6
Apparently This is not an organized protest per say.

Rather those that have not been vaccinated, and will not, expect to be fired on October 28 (final date to show proof of vaccination).

So they are using up their accrued sick and vacation days now.
3/6
I’ve argued that the nature of jobs and work has changed. Don’t know what we are transforming too, but it is not back to 2019.

Prior to the pandemic this was unthinkable for employees to do. Now it is happening everywhere.

Something has changed
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
11 Oct
1/6
A thread about COVID that is both encouraging and highlights the confusion and why cases go up and down.

This matters a lot for economic growth projections.
2/6
First the encouraging news. Both the US and the globe have peaked in cases.

US cases are almost down by half in about a month.
3/6
So what drives lower cases? Is it vaccine rates?

If so, see Singapore. They have one of the highest vaccine rates in the world (more than 80%) and yet their cases have gone parabolic.
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
9 Oct
1/12

The rest of the calendar year the focus will be on the the usual list stuff; Fed tapering, growth/employment, inflation, earnings, crypto regulation, etc.

But, the next biggest issue this calendar year is Washington/Budget/Infrastructure/Debt Ceiling.

A thread to explain
2/12

And unlike the list above, the most important factor driving this issue is not discussed much at all, Biden's epic approval rating collapse.

Another raft of polls came out late Friday (yesterday) that tanked the rolling average of his approval rating even further.
3/12

Washington's conventional wisdom (rarely correct), was Biden approval rating would rebound after COVID peaked and Afghanistan headlines faded.

Both did and Biden keeps going down and down and has not shown any ability to make his approval rating "bounce."
Read 13 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
7 Oct
Quinnipiac is one of the more highly thought of polling organizations.

Their new poll out was terrible for Biden.

And this might be the signal that is causing the mainstream media to finally admit Biden is in deep trouble.

poll.qu.edu/poll-release?r…

1/6
No less than Jake Tapper on CNN could not longer ignore Biden's collapsing approval rating anymore.

2/6
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight (owned by ABC News) SHOULD HAVE been all over this.

They have been strangely quiet ... until today.

They note that Afghanistan and COVID are both disappearing from the headlines and Biden gets worse and worse.

3/6
 fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden…
Read 6 tweets

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