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Nikos Tsafos

@ntsafos

14 Oct

@CSISEnergy

Countries are making big bets on the technologies we need for the energy transition, unlocking enormous opportunity, but also creating the prospect of trade and other conflicts. @CSISEnergy is launching “Energy Rewired” to study how these bets will change the world's energy map.

To start with, we will publish country briefs that focus on specific technologies like solar, wind, hydrogen, batteries, CCUS and others. We ask three questions: What is the country’s vision? What is the strategy? What is the geographic focus?

Over time, as we build the data, we plan to tackle higher order questions: which countries might pull ahead? What can we learn from each other? What conflicts or tensions might arise? How can the United States and its partners safeguard their interests in this world?

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Nikos Tsafos

@ntsafos

13 Oct

@IEA

With every new WEO come a gazillion new ideas to reflect on and write about. This is no summary of the main points, but some of the data points I found particularly interesting. A thread on the @IEA WEO 2021:

First, we are witnessing a profound transformation in the geopolitics of energy. By 2050, the geopolitics of energy will mean critical minerals and hydrogen rather than oil and gas. This is what we will trade. This is a big part of what we will need to manage across borders.

Having said that, the geography of hydrogen will not merely follow the geography of gas. It is too soon to speculate on trade routes for hydrogen by 2050, but this graph makes a key point: hydrogen trade routes will likely be limited. Think about hydrogen in its own terms.

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Nikos Tsafos

@ntsafos

6 Oct

Gas is getting a lot of flak in today’s energy crisis—and for good reason. This is a genuine gas crisis. But the criticism can also miss a deeper truth: gas has a really tough assignment. The hardest, in fact. Let’s talk about *seasonal* balancing.

We often think of gas as balancing intermittent renewables, and sure it can do that. But its chief function in many modern economies is to manage seasonal variations in demand. And these can huge.

In the UK, for example, the winter/summer spread for gas demand is over 2x. For electricity the ratio is about 35 percent. This is fairly typical in countries where gas is used for space heating (in the U.S., the gas spread is about 75 percent, electricity about 35 percent).

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Nikos Tsafos

@ntsafos

5 Jan

For years, I distrusted sidewalks. I grew up in Athens, where sidewalks are cramped, cracked, or just missing. I learned to walk on the street, something I had to “un-learn” after moving overseas. But I spent time in Athens recently, and it all came back. A thread—on sidewalks.

First rule: sidewalks are *not* for pedestrians. They function chiefly as overflow parking. If there is enough space on the sidewalk, a car or motorcycle will appear. Vehicles win—every time. (Photos taken around Alimos and Palaio Faliro.)

The next barrier is the trash can. The urban planner has often firmed its place on the sidewalk with this little insert. Good luck squeezing past these guys.

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Nikos Tsafos

@ntsafos

8 Dec 20

Whenever I write about Turkey and the East Med, I get a gazillion replies with the same message: look at this MAP! So many problems can be traced to this map—and the feeling it is meant to create that Turkey is a victim in the East Med. Let’s talk about this map.

To begin with, it’s not really a map of “Greek claims in the eastern Med.” Greek officials do not show this map. In fact, they rarely show maps at all. You won’t find it in official documents. This map is a derivation; it is not an official, stated “claim.”

This map is an academic exercise about what a median-line approach to exclusive economic zones (EEZ) might look like. It is based on the idea that absent any agreement to the contrary, each island gets the full EEZ that it is entitled to by international law. That’s it.

Read 16 tweets

Nikos Tsafos

@ntsafos

14 Sep 20

@bp_plc

There is always so much interesting stuff in the @bp_plc energy outlook. Some thoughts on my main take-aways for natural gas. 🧵bp.com/en/global/corp…

At first glance, on slide 5, natural gas looks good: it overtakes coal by 2025 and oil by 2035; renewables surpass it in 2040, but even in 2050, gas is the largest fossil fuel. This supports the thesis that gas will do relatively better in the transition.

But these are percentages. In total consumption, gas defends its position in a rapid transition—growing a bit, then declining a bit. But in a "net zero" world, gas demand is near its peak already. By 2050, consumption is down by a third.

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