It's time to admit this is a national emergency and act accordingly.

The #NHS has never sustained these demands. And they are only increasing.

The UK government has no insight into the problem and it seems they have neither the skills nor the fortitude for such crises.

1/n
We have:

1. NHS pre-winter bed capacity beyond 95% - #NHS
2. The highest demand for primary care services ever recorded
3. An NHS staffing crisis
4. An unmitigated pandemic - #COVID19
5. An absent government
It is dangerous to run a hospital above 85% capacity. When space is tight in a hospital, risk increases.

Risk occurs as we must try and avoid admissions and expedite discharges. @NHSProviders
In Scotland the Health Minister @HumzaYousaf has activated military health personnel to support NHS Lothian and NHS Borders. While the 'optics' may not be good, both the Health Boards and the Minister have (IMO) taken ACTION to safeguard their people.
gov.scot/news/increasin…
The state in the rest of the UK is just as bad/worse:

Unfortunately current Leadership in the UK have in the recent past been slow on the uptake, failing to act quickly or decisively enough.
In the UK we currently have less beds than before the pandemic begun.

In part, this is due to ignoring The WHO guidance to: "increase basic healthcare capacity".

[One of the only countries in the world not to create more beds during the pandemic]
At last calculation NHS England was at 98% bed capacity!

The GP situation has gone from bad to worse.

It was poor to start with:

data.oecd.org/chart/6ut4
And due to some BAD central decisions it got even worse:

[Thread here, but in summary, Government decided not to support GPs and directed patients to non-clinical services instead]

The pandemic is becoming more out of hand, with deaths, admissions and cases all way too high and rising.

Image
At current rates it will more than triple the annual loss of life and healthcare burden that we usually get from pneumonia (already one of the heaviest burden diseases):

Image
While for the vast majority COVID is mild and causes no long-term effects, it is more serious than the flu, and at these levels, simply overwhelming!

If you need convincing of this, you can read this thread:

We still have no public health mitigations (in England) and limited elsewhere.

HAVE WE LEARNED AND ARE WE NOW PREPARED?

And crucially for treating Covid patients, we still have:

No Triage
No Follow-up
Less beds than before Covid.

...During a pandemic!
We need to act!

The UK government have yet to demonstrate the insight or acumen to manage either the pandemic or #NHSCrisis

They are consistently too late to act, and when they do, their focus seems to be on other matters.
Leadership,
While the government need not be legally accountable for the policies they pursue (even if they lead to harm), we remain accountable for the actions we take.

Our duty is not to government nor organisation, but to the patient and wider public.
The government's drive to start clearing waiting lists over the winter is absolute fantasy and dangerous.

In regards to patient safety (IMO), resources must be directed to the frontline: primary care and frontline secondary care services
1. Expand acute care/general medicine capacity. Field hospitals if necessary, military if needed.
2. Redeploy
3. There has to be a functioning COVID-19 clinical care pathway.
4. Free market rules apply - pay what is necessary to recruit.
5. Look after the staff
It's time to bring the forces of the NHS to bear..

The NHS has one of the largest workforces on the planet and we are used to managing care under pressure.

Due to central policies, last time many of the public had to face COVID-19 alone...maybe not this time?
We didn't get our response to the first crisis right. Perhaps without central interference, we can this time.

END.

Additional info - clinical lessons from the pandemic:
Here is the thread relating to flu versus Covid.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dr Dan Goyal

Dr Dan Goyal Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @danielgoyal

15 Oct
The British public feel abandoned by their GP (and the NHS generally).

They feel GPs were hiding from the pandemic and afraid of getting #COVID19

The truth is so much more concerning…

@RCGP
@trishgreenhalgh @MartinRCGP @martinmckee @DrSimonHodes @drphilhammond
1. This government, under PM #Johnson And against the will of #TeamGP, bypassed GPs during this pandemic.
As shown in the above thread, There was a very clear objection by many GPs and GP leadership to being side-lined by the government’s pandemic strategy ….back in April 2020!!!

THIS IS OUTRAGEOUS!!!

And the public are completely unaware of this.
Read 8 tweets
14 Oct
Oh my word!

This was a thread from April 2020! @DrSimonHodes #TeamGP

This lack of triaging of patients was noticed and raised from the start…

Why have GPs been cut out the loop with covid testing and triage?

Rant follows 1/n
How can you have a pandemic response with NO Triage…seriously!!! @WHO

And if you get into the thread above you will see the comments are an echo of today “bizarre” “ideology led”

And a complete lack of frontline clinical representation on the government’s expert panel.
And it is the same with the parliamentarians reporting on the pandemic response…no clinical experts at all, or literacy, as far as I can tell…
Read 7 tweets
14 Oct
Lessons I have Learned so far

#COVID19

Experience:

+ Clinical Lead for level 1 and 2 (HDU) COVID Unit

+ Clinician for CAC (Covid Assessment centre)

+ Regional Lead for Remote COVID monitoring and follow-up service.

+ researcher orcid.org/0000-0003-0418…
1. Respect experience.

The two best preparations I undertook were to read, properly, the WHO guidelines (deep dive where necessary)
+
Spoke with the clinical lead in Singapore.

We are juniors in pandemic management and treating SARS. They are not.
IMO: when there is a new pathogen, the experts are those on the frontline treating the disease. At least until enough data is collected to analyse empirically…
Read 12 tweets
11 Oct
Thoughts on the joint statement issued by Royal College, BMA, etc..

Defending healthcare from new government demands

Please RT, change will only occur if the public support it..

bit.ly/3aneDrU
A number of national bodies have written a joint statement highlighting the pressures on the health service and staff.

The public are upset they have reduced access to care.

The government wants more face to face consults and for waiting lists to fall…
But these demands are made when:

1. Our bed capacity remains lower than it has ever been. Despite WHO advice to increase basic care capacity to manage the additional patients, this Leadership reduced it by 8%. Less beds = less frontline staff.
Read 14 tweets
9 Oct
Thread on FLU versus COVID

Apologies for lots of previous single tweets on this. Thread…

It seems many people believe Flu and COVID are in some way similar.

Many use this as an argument for easing Covid mitigation strategies.

Simply and utterly, completely wrong ..

1/n
To clear the first point up:

In the UK,

Flu deaths are 1200 per year.

At our current rate, COVID-19 kills over 40,000 per year. [this is even with vaccine coverage of >60%] Image
COVID-19 is currently killing more than 30 times more people than FLU.

FACT! Anyone says otherwise, ask for the evidence.
Read 8 tweets
9 Oct
What would a modern, properly funded NHS look like?

The NHS has been severely restricted by government funding. This has led to rationing of care at levels never seen in the NHS.

But what would the NHS look like were it allowed to grow with demands…
1/n
#NHS

Add ur own…
ACCESSIBILITY

A modern health service is accessible in a timely fashion to all patients.

A variety of mediums are available…email your pharmacist, physio, specialist nurse with a query; consult via phone, video, or face to face; interactive messaging;
TIMELY

Time to doctor contact is defined by illness not staff availability.

Expert advice available without delay.

Delay in diagnosis (eg cancer) relates only to the biological delays in processing investigations.

Treatment commences at the point of diagnosis.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(