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Bison Interests Profile picture
@BisonInterests
Oct 17, 2021 • 60 tweets • 22 min read • Read on X
This is an ongoing thread about the global energy crisis. As the crisis unfolds, we will update here.
Today, a Financial Times @FT article reports on China's electricity crisis further disrupting the global supply chain h/t @JKempEnergy ft.com/content/5174e5…
And Switzerland warns "big" firms they may need to cut their electricity usage @chigrl bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
And a member of the @JoeBiden administration and former @McKinsey consultant @PeteButtigieg says supply chain disruptions will continue "because the president has successfully guided the economy"
And @Forbes addressed the impact of global supply chain gridlock, including energy markets forbes.com/sites/davidbla…
Potential unseasonably cold weather coming in eastern Asia could exacerbate the energy crisis situation there. H/t @pineconemacro
Chinese companies are now bidding for long term US natural gas supplies, offering a 115% premium to the main benchmark Henry Hub price
And Indian coal inventories are at very low levels cnbc.com/2021/10/12/coa…
Low copper inventories in China could require energy intensive re-stocking and further strain tight energy markets
Policy makers including @ecb's @Lagarde and @MikeBloomberg misidentifying the reason to keep coal mines open while ignoring the ongoing energy crisis: energy reliability and availability, particularly for the poorest in the world.
Chinese thermal coal limit up h/t @pineconemacro
Japan urging oil producers to produce more reuters.com/article/japan-…
LNG prices hit fresh highs as Europe imports additional shipments. $34 implies over $200/barrel of oil equivalent Image
European natural gas prices up 18% after Russia announced it will be limiting it's natural gas supply next month Image
Early freeze exacerbates the energy crisis in China
Behind the Energy Crisis: Fossil Fuel Investment Drops, and Renewables Aren’t Ready.
The transition to cleaner energy sources isn’t far enough along to meet a surge in demand. WSJ
wsj.com/articles/energ…
Energy crisis returning the world to coal
"Revenge of the old economy" - Goldman
And now our coverage of the global energy crisis overlaps with our OPEC+ spare capacity thesis
Goldman: energy crisis adds second legs higher to current bull market Image
"Extremely tough" climate talks forthcoming. More fuel for the energy crisis?
Chinese coal prices rise even more. High power prices are hurting China's economy.
reuters.com/business/energ…
China pauses fertilizer exports
Now LNG tanker rates are spiking
IHS: Propane Armageddon coming this winter #propane @IHSMarkit
Petrobas seeing "atypical" demand for oil products that exceeds their production capacity h/t @chigrl
Russia openly makes incremental gas supply contingent on approval of Nordstream 2
China evaluating intervening in their coal market
China furthering connection between energy crisis and potential future food shortage bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
World oil inventories plunging
Magnesium price spikes as #china's power crisis reduces exports of this key component of #aluminum and #car manufacturing Image
UK may ration energy to homes
China to double #lng imports from the US
Evidence the supply chain crisis has peaked @business @markets Image
India asking for 50 LNG shipments retroactively
Supermarkets running out of food with hoarding activity taking place, as global energy crisis spills into other segments like food
Coal prices near historical highs despite China market intervention
India seeking fixed price contracts for oil amidst the global energy crisis
Power squeeze in China continues even as spot coal prices fall
Ironic for an energy crisis to be propelled partially by a legacy of corruption
Does "stay calm" about energy the signal mean to ...? Indication the energy crisis in Germany is intensifying.
Thoughts on alternative energy, food vs fuel, and energy crisis
Energy crisis and supply chain issues affecting energy transition in China. From Goldman Sachs
Image
The energy crisis is continuing in Germany, with record high one year forward electricity prices
Hedgeye on China energy crisis and coal @Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough #china #coal
Jordan Peterson weighing in on the energy crisis @jordanbpeterson
France is subsidizing higher energy costs with a direct stimulus. Coming soon worldwide? Is this the next step towards hyper-inflation? #inflation #energy #crisis #france #projectzimbabwe @hkuppy
The above link isn't working for some. The source is: lemonde.fr/politique/arti… and an image of the headline is included as well Image
China navigating the energy crisis
Nigirian rural gas users are switching back to cooking with firewood due to price increases
Funny things happening in the Chinese coal market
Japan is prepared for winter with high levels of natural gas in storage. No energy crisis here, yet.
Magnesium "going berserk" amid "energy crunch"
"Double inflationary" Chinese energy "crunch"
Energy crisis leading to food crisis as fertilizer prices skyrocket
More commodity inflation commentary

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More from @BisonInterests

Bison Interests Profile picture
Aug 18, 2023
Bison is Opposed to Pipestone's Take-Under by Strathcona.

We believe this proposed deal substantially undervalues Pipestone, and that another offer may emerge at a premium to it. (See full disclaimer, we own shares, not a recommendation, do not rely)🧵
Pipestone shares $pipe.to fell vs peers on the deal announcement. We think Pipestone shares will likely recover in price if the deal is rejected by shareholders Image
Bison analysis indicates Pipestone’s intrinsic value is ~86% higher than the allocated $2.72/share in the Strathcona deal, per recent transaction values in the Montney, Pipestone’s NAV/share, and comparable valuations of publicly traded Montney focused peers (see disclaimer): Image
Read 12 tweets
Bison Interests Profile picture
Jul 19, 2023
Our CIO, @Josh_Young_1 , recently appeared on the @DWildcatters podcast. We’ll be sharing some important clips below.
The World Needs More Oil.
Energy fund performance and institutional capital investment.
Read 10 tweets
Bison Interests Profile picture
Feb 27, 2023
Small cap oil & gas equities continue to trade at a material discount to larger caps, despite some compelling advantages. Let’s revisit our updated investment thesis and address some important critiques.🧵
1/ Not only do small caps ($psce) offer compelling value, but they have also lagged larger cap oil & gas companies ($xle), the oil price ($wti) and the broader market ($spy) over the last 10 years, widening the discount:
2/ Larger operators clearly see what we are seeing, as they have been seizing the opportunity to buy smaller caps at lower multiples of cash flow, particularly on the private side:
Read 13 tweets
Bison Interests Profile picture
Jan 20, 2023
Vital Energy is Deeply Discounted

"Having highlighted the disproportionate opportunity in smaller cap oil & gas equities in our 2023 Outlook, it is timely to share a portion of our investment thesis on a ... Bison portfolio position: Vital Energy $VTLE"
bisoninterests.com/content/f/vita…
1/ $vtle has under-performed comps
2/ $vtle operations had disappointed but are improving
Read 15 tweets
Bison Interests Profile picture
Jan 17, 2023
OPEC+ continues to miss oil production quotas, despite a recent cut. Total production for OPEC+ countries (excluding the OPEC exempt) was 38.3, falling short of the 40.1 quota by 1.8 MM bbl/d. Misses vs. quota are getting smaller vs. what they were prior to the cut. #oil #opec
The total cumulative shortfall of oil supplied to market by OPEC+ is almost 1.1B bbls since we started sharing these metrics in January 2021.
13/19 OPEC+ countries (excluding the exempt) missed their production quotas.
Read 4 tweets
Bison Interests Profile picture
Dec 24, 2022
This is a thread of our chief investment officer @Josh_Young_1's media appearances since late 2020, with some highlights noted. 🧵
1/ Market Huddle, October 2020

With increasing geological and technical limitations, the world is likely running out of cheap oil. The energy transition will likely lead to higher prices and higher returns for oil & gas investors. @TheMarketHuddle shorturl.at/bhmqr
2/ Hot Take of the Day, November 2020

COVID re-opening is bullish for equity markets. Not all oil & gas company stocks offer the same upside. Josh prefers well-run oil & gas companies with good economics, proven reserves and limited analyst coverage. shorturl.at/grvV4
Read 19 tweets

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