NEW
UK govt has finally published details of its heat & buildings strategy, which will be out in full tomorrow
🎯new gas boiler ban* from 2035
💷£3.9bn funding inc £450m for heat pumps
📜shift levies off electricity bills over 10yrs
🔥decision on hydrogen heat in 2026
THREAD
UK govt has finally published details of its heat & buildings strategy, which will be out in full tomorrow
🎯new gas boiler ban* from 2035
💷£3.9bn funding inc £450m for heat pumps
📜shift levies off electricity bills over 10yrs
🔥decision on hydrogen heat in 2026
THREAD
First, why does this matter?
The UK's way off track against its legally-binding climate goals, inc net-zero by 2050 & the interim carbon budgets for late 2020s onwards
Pink scribble = gap btwn policies vs targets
carbonbrief.org/ccc-uk-will-mi…
The UK's way off track against its legally-binding climate goals, inc net-zero by 2050 & the interim carbon budgets for late 2020s onwards
Pink scribble = gap btwn policies vs targets
carbonbrief.org/ccc-uk-will-mi…
We can expect more on how govt expects to close gap tomorrow (?) w publication of delayed UK net-zero strategy
But heat and buildings probably the trickiest area in political terms: it's up close & personal, it could be disruptive – low-carbon heat's currently expensive
But heat and buildings probably the trickiest area in political terms: it's up close & personal, it could be disruptive – low-carbon heat's currently expensive
Overall, UK has made rapid recent progress thanks to nearly phasing out coal in power sector, but CO2 from homes is actually *increasing* making it the 2nd largest source of emissions after transport
Homes (largely their gas boilers) = 16% of UK GHGs
Homes (largely their gas boilers) = 16% of UK GHGs
So what's in this new strategy?
🎯"Ban" on new gas boilers from 2035
Press release wording is loose, saying govt has a "confirmed ambition" that all new heating systems from 2035 will be low carbon
That's…not a ban
🎯"Ban" on new gas boilers from 2035
Press release wording is loose, saying govt has a "confirmed ambition" that all new heating systems from 2035 will be low carbon
That's…not a ban
What does "confirmed ambition" mean?
Back in the Energy White Paper, govt said it "expected" new heating installs to be low carbon by the mid-2030s
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-ho…
Back in the Energy White Paper, govt said it "expected" new heating installs to be low carbon by the mid-2030s
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-ho…
Being a cynic, I'd say "confirmed ambition" is constructively ambiguous enough for all in Cabinet to agree to & to spin as appropriate
So…it's a ban! But also, not a ban!
Given press around this, I'm not surprised.
(+Basically if market/public treats as ban, it's a ban.)
So…it's a ban! But also, not a ban!
Given press around this, I'm not surprised.
(+Basically if market/public treats as ban, it's a ban.)
(The press release stresses that "no-one will be forced to remove their existing fossil fuel boilers".
Anyone using the phrase "forced to rip out their boilers" should henceforth put £1 in the naughty jar.)
Anyone using the phrase "forced to rip out their boilers" should henceforth put £1 in the naughty jar.)
On to the funding…
💷 £3.9bn is…not anywhere close, even with existing spend, to making up the £9.2bn for home energy efficiency improvements pledged in the Tory manifesto
It'd hardly be 1st pledge to be broken, but still
carbonbrief.org/election-2019-…
💷 £3.9bn is…not anywhere close, even with existing spend, to making up the £9.2bn for home energy efficiency improvements pledged in the Tory manifesto
It'd hardly be 1st pledge to be broken, but still
carbonbrief.org/election-2019-…
There's a lot of ground to make up on energy efficiency, since Cameron "cut the green crap" and ended UK progress in 2013…
Not clear this new money bridges the gap. I await the verdict of @theCCCuk and others.
Not clear this new money bridges the gap. I await the verdict of @theCCCuk and others.
https://twitter.com/timbolord/status/1448727554634956800
On heat pumps, the govt strategy stresses they will play a "key role" in all scenarios
That shouldn't be a surprise as it's what CCC, IEA and basically all recent studies have suggested
That shouldn't be a surprise as it's what CCC, IEA and basically all recent studies have suggested
https://twitter.com/janrosenow/status/1448955118490116104
In terms of funding, £450m over 3yrs –at £5,000 per home– is just 30,000 installations/yr, barely an increase on current rates & WAY short of govt target for 600,000/yr by 2028 (it'd pay for 5% of that)
CCC says we need 100k/yr in existing homes to 2025
theccc.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
CCC says we need 100k/yr in existing homes to 2025
theccc.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
But govt making big play on innovation, with £60m to help make heat pumps as cheap as or cheaper than gas boilers by 2030 – with cost reductions of 25-50% "expected" by 2025
*If* that happens, need for grants falls away
*If* that happens, need for grants falls away
(Here's the latest on current heat pump costs from @JennyC_Hill at the CCC)
https://twitter.com/JennyC_Hill/status/1425822956412833806
Another key enabling policy change in the strategy is…
📜shifting env/social levies off electricity bills, which govt says it will decide on next yr, with a view to making the move over 10yrs
📜shifting env/social levies off electricity bills, which govt says it will decide on next yr, with a view to making the move over 10yrs
Shifting levies off electricity bills would end the current perverse subsidy for fossil gas over cleaner electricity
-Gas boilers currently get a massive subsidy in CO2 terms due to not paying for their emissions
-Gas boilers currently get a massive subsidy in CO2 terms due to not paying for their emissions
https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1410883414811721728
Media reports have suggested govt looking to move levies to gas. Press release silent on that.
https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1443311732416471046
Big political risks here & could be v regressive / increase fuel poverty w/out appropriate design
(Energy efficiency would help cut bills)
(Energy efficiency would help cut bills)
https://twitter.com/resfoundation/status/1450110670700101637
🔥 on hydrogen…despite all the media hype…
Govt leaving a decision on hydrogen heat until 2026
By then, govt saying heat pumps 50% cheaper + being installed at scale…
Draw your own conclusions 🤷♂️
Govt leaving a decision on hydrogen heat until 2026
By then, govt saying heat pumps 50% cheaper + being installed at scale…
Draw your own conclusions 🤷♂️
(Don't be surprised if there is nevertheless plenty of coverage around hydrogen heat tomorrow – I've personally received a bunch of press releases touting it as a solution for low-carbon heat.)
Background in our hydrogen Q&A
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-do…
Background in our hydrogen Q&A
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-do…
We'll have all the details for you @CarbonBrief once the full strategy document gets published
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