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Molson Hart Profile picture
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19 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Last 30 days for our business:

1. $33k container got delayed (likely won't make xmas)
2. 2 containers from vietnam will arrive after xmas
3. Key warehouse team-member injured
4. 70% of our China orders delayed b/c no⚡️

If we have debt in this situation we go bust.

1/2
Thank god teammember's injury was not worse.

We will be totally fine, but if we are levered up in this position, we would not be because our costs are skyrocketing and as more containers arrive we get more and more strapped for cash before we get those toy xmas sales.

2/3
There are a lot of unknown costs that can skyrocket from here.

We have multiple containers arriving in Los Angeles with the intention of being transloaded & shipped by truck.

What happens if trucking prices to Texas spike?

Big disaster.

China prices are going way up!

3/3
Bonus tweet:

We are a toy company, receiving inventory after xmas is really not ideal.

We will be fine (debt-free, I am very conservative) and I am not complaining.

I am not complaining.

It's entrepreneurship.

If you can't take the heat, get out this kitchen.

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More from @Molson_Hart

Molson Hart Profile picture
22 Oct
Hey @fmanjoo if you are going to write an article in the NYT which my I am featured prominently, don't you think you should ask me for a comment, especially if you're going to imply I'm "discombobulated and that I'm used to employees leaping to my every demand"?

🧵👇 Image
Perhaps you didn't because the context behind the tweet didn't fit the narrative of your story?

Like when you said the that people were reluctant to work "terrible jobs"... Image
Read 8 tweets
Molson Hart Profile picture
17 Oct
How to go from broke to middle class in America (without becoming a musician, a professional athlete, or selling drugs):
Middle Class.

What does that mean?

We're going to call it $50,000 cash in your bank account.

The goal of this thread is to take YOU from broke to $50,000 cash in your bank account.

Let's start:
Accept that other people have a head start on you in life.

Life is not fair and it never will be.

It doesn't matter. You will catch up.
Read 97 tweets
Molson Hart Profile picture
17 Oct
Prediction: the US is going to economic war with China

Short thread on my thinking re: this video

tiktok.com/@financeyujie/…
1. She mentions that power has been cut in Guangdong and Jiangsu in Autumn, which is past peak power usage (for southern Jiangsu anyways) as Guangdong is pretty warm, they spend more power on A/C than heating. AFAIK power has not been cut in Shandong and north.
2. To me that indicates that it has nothing to do with a shortage. And in fact she says it has nothing do with a shortage (this woman who is pretty hot imo does not strike me as being unaffiliated with the government). She says it is 3 things:
Read 12 tweets
Molson Hart Profile picture
15 Oct
Our department of transportation secretary has been on leave since mid august 🤯

Amidst the greatest supply chain crisis this nation has ever seen Mayor Pete was on leave.

I thought that this was fake, that he was being scapegoated but it looks real.
Mystery solved @Bannedforself Image
Read 4 tweets
Molson Hart Profile picture
13 Oct
Can a country become sustainably rich without a sizable manufacturing base?

Ways to get rich:

- resource extraction
- tourism
- financial services
- service outsourcing
- software
- manufacturing
- something else I’m missing?

1/n
There’s something special about manufacturing. It taps into all of your human capital. Compare it to tourism. Your people oriented people work the hotels and restaurants. You get a small construction industry, a bit of marketing but that’s it.

2/n
Whereas for manufacturing, your people oriented people do sales, some people can work the plants, you can have designers, managers (yes you get these with tourism too), software, and construction. All your human capital gets tapped.

3/n
Read 6 tweets
Molson Hart Profile picture
12 Oct
Huge bear market in office RE (adjusted for inflation and covered land plays) coming.

It’s not even arguable otherwise. Let’s move on. We’re done.

What is interesting is the follow on effects!

1/2
- less commuting will hurt non-destinational retail eg “never mind picking that up on the way back from work.”
- what happens to downtown office cores?
- what do we do with these buildings?
- do homes need to be redesigned bigger?

What else? It’s pretty interesting!

2/3
Just so we’re clear, I am not saying no one will go to an office. I am saying a many fewer people will. I don’t know what the percentage is but the fewer people go to the office the less of a benefit you get from going yourself so WFH has a negative network effect.

3/3
Read 4 tweets

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