Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: Gameweek 9 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I address the most common dilemmas in the FPL community before we head into GW9:

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In case you missed it, I also wrote a comprehensive review of GW8 where I cover each match one by one and talk about the implications for GW9. You can read it here!

fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fpl-gameweek-8…

Q: Who are the best Romelu Lukaku replacements?

Jamie Vardy (£10.6m): This will be the popular move on paper. Vardy is the second highest FPL points scorer this season, so one would expect him to get the significant majority of the Lukaku traffic. I have avoided Vardy all...

... season as he's at that awkward price range where I don't believe he offers value, especially when you're unlikely to captain. However, in my opinion, with Lukaku's injury, the goalposts have shifted as captaincy has been taken out of the equation. It makes much more sense...

... now to be investing in a £10m+ asset even if you are not going to be captaining, as Salah is likely to be the auto-captain in most weeks from now by default.
Vardy is ranked second for shots, shots in the box, big chances, penalty area touches, xG and...

... expected goal involvement (xGi) among forwards this season. In the last four Gameweeks, he is top for the same set of statistics. However, one thing which is worth bearing in mind is that Vardy has overperformed his xG by three goals - the highest for overperformance...

... this season. Vardy has outperformed his xG in two of his previous four seasons, while underperformed in the other two - including last season, where he was only behind Werner and Maupay for xG underperformance. Read into that what you will...

...Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers recently switched to a 3-5-2 formation in the game against Man United and the common consensus is that Leicester have looked better in that system. Whether it was down to the formation change or Man United being poor in general, Leicester...

... were ranked second for xG in the previous Gameweek accumulating a very healthy xG of 2.9 with the newly introduced Iheanacho heavily involved in the press that directly led to quite a few of Leicester's chances. One could argue that Leicester had a mediocre xG before...

... the Man United game - they were indeed ranked 17th for xG but despite those poor numbers for the Leicester team it was worth noting that Vardy accumulated at least one big chance in each one of Leicester's past four fixtures which highlights his consistency...

Harry Kane (£12.1m): Kane has recorded at least one big chance in each of his previous three league fixtures, and is showing strong signs of a return to form. Over the last three Gameweeks, only Salah has registered more big chances or recorded a healthier...

... expected goal involvement (xGi) than Kane. Kane’s tally of five big chance involvements in the past three fixtures means that he really has to be prioritized soon as Spurs go on a favorable run of fixtures from Gameweek 12...

... There is a case to be made for captaining Kane in each one of GW 12, 14 and 15:

Kane: LEE BRE NOR
Salah: ARS eve wol
Vardy: CHE sou avl

The argument for Kane is to prepone the move and do it 3 weeks earlier than planned as it saves a transfer later. I can't fault the idea.

Ivan Toney (£6.4m): Brentford showed in their recent games against Liverpool and Chelsea that they have the capability to score even against the tough defences in the league where the Bees amassed an xG of 2.3 and 2.1 respectively. I believe Toney is a set and forget pick...

... for the long run. He is on penalties, and his creative ability is extremely underrated. Toney is top among all players for big chances created this season and has the best expected assists among forwards. He is also third amongst forwards for...

... expected goal involvement (xGi) – with only Antonio and Lukaku faring better. With the high volume of chances that Toney creates, he is highly likely to get bonus points as well whenever he registers an attacking return. The main selling point about Toney is that he...

... is significantly cheaper than the forwards I have mentioned yet comes close in terms of matching them for underlying numbers. Picking him allows more money to be invested into other positions which strengthens the squad.

Q: Is doubling up on the Spurs and Brentford attack worth it?

Having written about Kane and Toney already, I now cover their team-mates Heung Min Son (£10.1m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£5.6m). Like Kane, Son too has recorded at least one big chance in each of his previous three...

... league fixtures. I really like the idea of doubling up as the fixtures as mentioned from Gameweek 12, are too good to be true. Son is also on corners, and although he is yet to create a big chance this season, the number of chances he can create through set pieces helps...

... him in earning bonus points more often than not as we saw in the previous Gameweek. Mbeumo was very unlucky not to score against Chelsea in Gameweek 8.
He hit the woodwork twice, which has so often been the case in recent times. No player has hit the woodwork more times...

... than Mbuemo (6) this season. The Frenchman is classified as a midfielder in the game, but he’s often the furthest man on the field for Brentford. He is the standout player in his price range, and has accumulated the highest xG among all the Brentford players. Mbeumo is...

... also top among budget midfielders for big chances. Him and Toney are easily the best options when looked at in isolation in their respective price ranges – I would have no hesitation doubling up.

Q: What to do with Michail Antonio and Saïd Benrahma?

Despite his recent blanks, Michail Antonio’s (£8.1m) underlying numbers are still impressive. The Hammers striker remains second only to Salah for xG (despite missing one game due to suspension) and was second for xG...

... underperformance in the recently concluded Gameweek 8 as well. West Ham are fourth for xG, averaging 1.9 xG per game. Meanwhile, their next two opponents Spurs and Aston Villa are averaging 1.5 xG conceded per game. I’d give him at least the next two games because I think...

... there’s a good chance he does well. West Ham strike me as the sort of team who will score even against the difficult defences in the league. The common perception is that they have some tough fixtures coming up (TOT avl LIV wol mci BHA) but the fact of the matter...

... is that they scored in each of these six reverse fixtures last season, scoring 12 goals in the process and averaged two goals per game. Saïd Benrahma (£6.6m) has returned in just one of the previous six fixtures but I don’t think he’s an immediate sell – primarily...

... due to the lack of alternatives around. Mbeumo and Raphinha are the only ones I would consider selling him for if you don’t have them.

Q: In this section, I write about Mohamed Salah.

Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) is top for xG in the league this season, in the form of his life and the most reliable captaincy option in the game. To be honest, Salah has made me run out of words as he continues to show an unreal...

... level of consistency. He is top in the league for shots in the box, xG, expected goal involvement (xGi) and big chances created this season. Even by his high standards, he is operating at a level which is superior to anything from what we have witnessed from him in the past:

21/22 v 20/21 v 19/20 v 18/19 v 17/18

(Per game data)

Shots in the box: 3.4 v 2.65 v 3.24 v 2.5 v 3.14
Big chances: 1 v 0.9 v 0.9 v 0.79 v 1.19
xG: 0.77 v 0.59 v 0.62 v 0.58 v 0.68

What also helps is that he is playing for a Liverpool side who are comfortably top...

... for each one of the relevant attacking underlying statistics – whether it be shots, shots in the box, big chances or xG. Man United have conceded 42% of their chances down their left flank this season (as compared to 32% on the right and 26% centrally) which is where...

... Salah will be playing in Gameweek 9 and he looks set to benefit.

Q: In this section, I cover Ben Chilwell.

Ben Chilwell (£5.7m) is coming on the back of some impressive performances for both club and country, where he has now scored thrice in four games. Most Chelsea fans and journalists believe that he has done well enough in his recent...

... performances to have regained his spot from Marcos Alonso. Judging by Tuchel’s comments, they might be right:

“I was very honest, I felt him a little bit tired, I felt him mentally a bit drained and it needed time. So now he got his chance against Southampton...

... and took it and he was able to score and play for England which gave him another lot of confidence and today he was strong again.”

What I also like about Chilwell is that he has already taken 12 corners in the two league games that he has started. The number of chances...

... he can create via these set pieces can help him in his bonus accumulation. He came off early in the Champions League as well so looks good to start in the upcoming Gameweek. With a very low ownership, Chilwell might be the perfect differential and a good long-term...

... investment as well. However, his owners will be hoping that Chelsea improve on their recent defensive numbers with their upcoming run of favorable fixtures:

Chelsea 21/22 v 20/21 under Tuchel

(Per game data)

Shots in the box conceded: 7.75 v 3.89
Big chances conceded: 1.68 v 0.79
xG conceded: 1.4 v 0.7

Here is my Fantasy5 team for the GW! I’ve already written about Antonio and his ability to do well against Spurs this week. Phil Foden was taken off early in the Champions League and is in great form so is also in with a good shout to beat his target this week.

I also do a weekly podcast (@TheFPLWire) with @lateriser12 and @zophar666 where we cover everything FPL relevant for the GW. Catch the latest episode before GW9 here: ⬇️

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