Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW6 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I address the most common dilemmas in the FPL community before we head into GW6:

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Q: Who is the best captaincy option this week and why?

There are quite a few options to pick from this week which makes it all the more fun. I’ll start from why I think Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.0m) is the best choice. Since his arrival at the club, no player in the league...

... has registered more shots in the box (12), penalty area touches (21), big chances (5) or accumulated a better xG (2.7) than him. Whenever I watch United play, it’s almost as if they are playing to Ronaldo’s strengths – to supply him with as many opportunities as possible...

...Another advantage he has over his counterparts is that he is the only one who is playing at home. 59% of the Premier League goals have been scored at home this season (keeping in line with pre-covid trends) which also indicates that home captains are more likely to record...

... bigger hauls. Having said that, there are other alternatives as well. Mohamed Salah has always been a reliable option having blanked just once in this season so far. No one has a better xG than Salah this season so is doing well statistically too. However, he's up against...

... a Brentford side who are second only to Man City for xG and big chances conceded this season. They are also fourth for shots in the box conceded which is great considering that they are a relatively promoted team. Now, the counter argument could be just one of the...

... opposition Brentford have played so far (Wolves) is in the top 10 for non-penalty xG so far. Man United are ranked third for xG, big chances and shots in the box while Liverpool are top in every category. Aston Villa too are 9th for shots in the box conceded, 7th for big...

... chances conceded and 4th for xG conceded. They have good defensive stats but what’s important to note here is that they too have had favorable fixtures (with the exception of Chelsea) and have just played an Everton team without Richarlison and Calvert Lewin...

...There's Michail Antonio to consider as well - he returns from suspension this week and faces Leeds who are missing quite a few of their first team regulars. He is top among forwards for big chance involvements and shots in the box this season despite missing a fixture...

... Antonio also has a highly impressive 80% goal involvement rate this season which highlights his talismanic status in the West Ham team. Furthermore, Leeds are likely to be depleted with injuries at the weekend. Marcelo Bielsa’s side have conceded the highest number of...

... chances down the middle this season, an area where Antonio is likely to operate. Even historically, Leeds have conceded more chances centrally than down either of their flanks last season. The bookies think Man United and Liverpool have a better chance to score 2.5+ goals...

... than West Ham though, which is something you might want to take into perspective.

Q: Who is the best Patrick Bamford replacement?

If you don’t own Antonio, the answer is simple. However, in case you do, then Raúl Jiménez (£7.5m) and Adam Armstrong (£6.0m) are the ones I'd look at as both Wolves and Southampton have a favorable run of fixtures over the...

... coming weeks. Jiménez is ranked sixth for goal attempts in the box and third for chances created this season. However, the Mexican international has produced no attacking returns. His xG numbers haven’t been great but he has recorded four big chance involvements and...

... I believe his owners have been unfortunate not to be rewarded to some degree. Another thing worth noting is that with the number of chances he creates, he’s also going to hog the bonus points more often than not which adds to his appeal. Southampton have had a...

... reasonably tough run of fixtures to begin with. Despite this, only five forwards registered more shots in the box than Armstrong which is highly encouraging. Armstrong is much cheaper than the likes of Jiménez so he could offer a lot of value. The money saved by...

... investing in him could be used elsewhere. This is pertinent because both Manchester City and Chelsea have a great run of fixtures from Gameweek 8 onwards as well, and FPL managers would want to invest in their defenders. Armstrong is the perfect enabler to facilitate that...

... You’ll need to have someone to play from your bench when he has Chelsea in Gameweek 7 though!

Q: Who is the best Patrick Bamford replacement for those looking for a differential before wildcarding?

Joshua King (£5.5m) is a name I don’t see mentioned much in the FPL community. He registered three big chance involvements, the second most of all players who played in...

... Gameweek 5 and with Watford’s fixtures, could be a reasonable punt for two weeks. He’s playing centrally and his heat map suggests that he is getting into threatening positions. We don’t know the pecking order of Watford’s penalties yet and he could even potentially...

... have an outside chance of taking penalties. At just £5.5m and 0.6% ownership, there’s not much to lose!

Q: How many premium assets to pick, two or three?

In my opinion, the premiums are likely to be the most frequent point scorers so I can see the fascination behind shoe-horning as many in the team but what I don’t like is that it places significant reliance, to the extent...

... of over reliance, on the third premium to perform. A third premium + a budget enabler could be a good strategy later on in the season once we have more team value but at this stage of the season, it is hard to figure out who the best budget enablers are hence spreading the...

... funds and going in with a combination of two mid-priced players is likely to yield better results. In weeks where the third premium fires, the weaknesses in the team will be masked but in case the third premium blanks, you leave yourself at high risk of being outscored by...

... the rest of the pack who have a more balanced team with two premiums. At the moment, I'm struggling to make a team with three heavy hitters that I like. Ideally pick two premiums – one midfielder and forward to give you the flexibility to rotate between...

... Salah/De Bruyne/Son/Bruno and Ronaldo/Lukaku/Kane depending on their fixture runs. Timing will be all important this season, owning the right premiums at the right time will be critical and whoever gets it right will shoot up the ranks. In my opinion, Lukaku becomes...

... a must have from Gameweek 9 onwards due to the captaincy factor. Now that leaves a decision to be made on Cristiano Ronaldo and whether he’s worth owning in the tougher fixtures. Now I don’t think he is, and I have two arguments to support my theory. Of course, you may...

... disagree as the caveat here is that the arguments are based on the assumption that similar trends will continue. The first argument is that when I looked into Ronaldo’s numbers at Juventus last season, in 18 games he played against the top 10 sides, he registered an...

... attacking return in 11 of them. Now that is remarkable consistency even against the tougher opposition. However, what’s worth noting is that in just one of those 18 games did he register more than one goal involvement. If the trend continues, surely getting a cheaper...

... striker with good fixtures and spreading the funds elsewhere is better than Ronaldo + a budget enabler?
Secondly, when I looked into a sample of 12 games (six home, six away) Man United played against some of the top 10 last season:

Man United against top 10 v Man United against bottom 10

Shots in the box per game: 6.33 v 9.54
Big chances per game: 1.58 v 2.88
Average xG per game: 1.2 v 2.2

Those numbers themselves highlight that Solskjaer is likely to adopt a conservative approach against the tougher opposition. Is it really worth owning Ronaldo for LIV tot MCI wat che (Gameweek 9-13)?

Q: Is Ferran Torres to Ismaïla Sarr a move worth doing?

It’s funny how quickly things change in FPL. Not too long ago, it looked as if Ferran Torres (£7.1m) had established himself as the first choice Man City number nine but whether or that is the case as of now remains...

... to be seen. Your guess is as good as mine. The fact that Torres was left unattended on the bench by Pep Guardiola when his side needed a goal the most against Southampton last week was telling. I'd probably take the opportunity to sell him, as the next two fixtures are...

... as hard as they get - with Man City travelling to Chelsea and Liverpool in the upcoming Gameweeks. His fixtures after Gameweek 7 are great, but there is no guarantee to suggest whether or not he will be first choice by then. In my opinion, Ismaïla Sarr (£6.1m) is a...

... great replacement. He's coming on the back of two goals last weekend and is now up against Newcastle and Leeds in the upcoming gameweeks, two sides who are ranked in the bottom two for xG conceded this season. The return of Kiko Femenia has really helped Sarr, as it...

... has allowed him to drift inside and play more centrally. I think there is a good chance that he hauls again this week. Newcastle are ranked fourth for chances conceded down their left flank this season, and when I filter that over the past four gameweeks, they have...

... conceded the most chances down their left flank.

Q: What to do with Luke Shaw?

Luke Shaw (£5.5m) is ranked fifth in the league for chances created and third in the league for big chances created so for him to be averaging just under four FPL points per game this season doesn’t do justice to his underlying statistics...

... The lack of clean sheets haven’t helped – it’s actually funny that the only clean sheet Man United have kept (v Wolves) in five games this season is the one in which they recorded the worst xG conceded. Man United are ranked second for shots in the box conceded but eighth...

... for xG conceded and tenth for big chances conceded respectively. Hence, it is no surprise to see them top the charts for direct errors leading to goal scoring chances this season. Should they cut out these individual errors, they should still be good for clean sheets...

... Their upcoming opponents don’t look in great shape either – Villa are ranked bottom for xG from open play this season while Everton are likely to be without both Calvert Lewin and Richarlison. What’s also noticeable has been Man United’s change in playstyle since...

... Ronaldo’s arrival. Over the first three Gameweeks, Man United were ranked 12th for crosses averaging 16 crosses per game. However, from Gameweek 4-5, Man United are third for crosses averaging 28 crosses per game. A large part of that is down to Shaw, who was 19th...

... for crosses in the league from Gameweek 1-3, averaging 5 crosses per game but is now first for crosses in the league from Gameweek 4-5, averaging 13.5 crosses per game. One can argue that the data is skewed to an extent by the increase of corners per game awarded to...

... Man United from Gameweek 4-5. However, what’s worth noting is that the increase of 12 crosses per game is significantly higher than the increase of 3.5 corners per game, which suggests a direct increase in crosses from open play as well. However, when the fixtures turn...

... in Gameweek 8 I’d look to sell Shaw. The counter argument would be that Man United recorded half of their clean sheets against tougher opposition last season. However, based on this sample of 12 games (six home, six away) that Man United played with the top 10...

... last season, their underlying statistics were fairly poor:

Man United against top 10 v Man United against bottom 10

Shots in the box conceded per game: 8.25 v 6.73
Big chances conceded per game: 2.17 v 1.54
Average xG conceded per game: 1.5 v 1.2

The Man City and Chelsea defenders are likely to offer more clean sheet potential going forward!

Here is my Fantasy5 team for the GW! I fancy Arsenal to beat Spurs this week which is why I have picked Aubameyang. All Liverpool attackers have unrealistically high targets so I’m hoping Fabinho can get a goal, while the rest of my picks are self-explanatory.

A big thank you to my friend @fplwaleed who has been contributing to my article and helping me with my research this season. Make sure to follow him to show your support!

I also do a weekly podcast (@TheFPLWire) with @lateriser12 and @zophar666 where we cover everything FPL relevant for the GW. Catch the latest episode before GW6 here: ⬇️

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