#funfact about the IE 2021 Climate Act: once the Climate Council recommends its first GHG budgets (spanning 2021-2030), THEN the much cited "target" of "51% emissions reduction by 2030 vs 2019" specified in s. 6A(5) becomes moot - it has no further force or role...
... we flip from a situation where that 2030 "point-in-time" emissions target is supposed to determine the available GHG budget up to that point, to the REVERSE situation where the 2030 "point in time" emissions become determined by the budget instead!
Does this matter? Well, it progressively will. Depending how we progress against meeting the (now binding) budget constraint, it may be possible to allow less than 51% reduction in 2030 ... OR (rather more likely?) it may be necessary to achieve MORE than 51% reduction in 2030.
Take home message? We will need policy wonks, media and commentators to stop fixating on the "51% by 2030" mantra, and really focus on the IMMEDIATE unfolding of the budget constraint...
... and this is GOOD NEWS: this is the way the new GHG budget framework CAN really steer much better, earlier, mitigation! 👍👍
[Minor typo correction: I said s. 6A(5) of #IEClimateAct2021 referenced "2019" as the emissions baseline year, but it is actually 2018 of course. Sorry for any confusion - but, as I say, all moot anyway once CCAC recommend their GHG budgets...]
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