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Lion

@Investing_Lion

22 Oct

I sold $PINS this week.

I am aware that I may realize I was wrong over time but after thinking hard about it, I made the decision and I want to be transparent about it.

Here is why I made this decision ⬇️

$PINS did not have a great report last quarter.

Financial numbers where good (growth, margins, ARPU) but I did not like management talking about "web users" and "mobile users" to justify the user slow down.

However, I did see some truth in it, so I decided to hold and wait

During the quarter, it became clear that $PINS had decided to make a shift in the business they had built all this years to have an e-commerce experience and presence.

These type of transitions are always hard and require laser focus by management to execute correctly

Read 9 tweets

Lion

@Investing_Lion

25 Sep

Sustainability of growth in SaaS: Will they accelerate or slow down in 2022 vs 2021?

Here is the % difference NTM - LTM and overall NTM growth:

$BILL Difference: +51% / NTM growth: 101%
$AI +16% / 36%
$SPLK +13% / 16%
$PCTY +12% / 25%
$PAYC +6% / 24%
$ADSK +4% / 18%

% difference NTM - LTM and overall NTM growth:

$CRM +2% / 23%
$DOCN +2% / 31%
$WDAY +2% / 19%
$ZEN +1% / 27%
$ZUO +1 / 12%
$WKME 0% / 29%
$QLYS 0% / 12%
$BL 0% / 20%
$OKTA -1% / 44%
$APPN -2% / 16%
$BIGC -3% / 36%
$FROG -3% / 34%
$SPT -3% / 31%
$PD -4% / 25%
$PLAN -4% / 25%

% difference NTM - LTM and overall NTM growth:

$NOW -5% / 26%
$PCOR -5% / 23%
$HUBS -6% / 35%
$ADBE -6% / 15%
$TEAM -8% / 21%
$MDB -8% / 32%
$SMAR -9% / 31%
$VEEV -10% / 20%
$NET -14% / 38%
$DDOG -14% / 45%
$ZS -15% / 41%

Read 6 tweets

Lion

@Investing_Lion

28 Aug

Now that most companies have reported earnings, it is a good time to assess where current valuation multiples stand and the estimates of revenue CAGR for the next few years.

This is the consolidated graph with all the companies:

In this other one, I included some companies that I had to exclude in the first graph:
$AFRM
$SNOW
$DLO
$GLBE

The next graphs are grouped by industry.

E-Commerce

EV/GP NTM and EV/EBITDA NTM (for profitable Cos)

$AMZN 8.4x / 20.6x
$BABA 6.5x / 12.6
$SE 36.4x
$MELI 24.4x / 123x
$JD 4x / 32x
$W 7.4x / 44x
$SHOP 66x / 266x
$CPNG 10.6x
$ETSY 14.1x / 36.64x
$PDD 9.1x
$OZON 8.1x
$BIGC 21.2x
$GLBE 116x

Read 10 tweets

Lion

@Investing_Lion

26 Aug

What is the most underfollowed fintwit account that is sharing quality content on a consistent basis?

@StockMarketNerd

Many interesting suggestions. Here is the list.
I have arranged it based on follower count:

10k+:
@StockMarketNerd @dhaval_kotecha @skaushi @plantmath1 @aadhansen @realEstateTrent @Crussian17 @hiddensmallcaps @caleb_investTML @lhamtil @SagaPartners @Badpak @qcapital2020

@Mayhem4Markets

5K+
@Mayhem4Markets @ecommerceshares @Invesquotes @MaxTheComrade @Varro_Analytics @InvestiAnalyst
@the10thman1 @joshtarasoff @RishiGosalia @GWInvestors @LaughingH20Cap @MultibaggerAnil @w_biltmore85 @Red_BULLish

Read 6 tweets

Lion

@Investing_Lion

5 Aug

This earnings season the market is adjusting post covid. Seems like we are back to a stock pickers market. One of the important variables to look for is multiple expansion.

The following graph is a comparison of this metric for some companies pre and post pandemic.

To calculate the multiple expansion of each company, I compared the average multiple of every quarter from 2018-2019 vs today, using the following metrics:
- EV/GP
- EV/EBITDA
- EV/FCF

This has some limitations as multiples in 2018-2019 may be considered high or low.

But I wanted to get an estimate of how the pandemic and its consequences have affected valuations.

I used only positive metrics, so if FCF or EBITDA multiples were negative, I excluded those from the average. Gross profit was always used.

Read 18 tweets

Lion

@Investing_Lion

24 Jul

I like to compare companies with different metrics. It helps me understand a little better each business. This time, I am sharing the metric Gross Profit / Employee.

Hope you find it interesting 🙂

This is the consolidated graph. The next graphs are grouped by industry 👇

1.E-Commerce

Gross Profit / Employee (FY 2020)

$ETSY $909k
$PDD $712K
$W $248k
$SHOP $234k
$BABA $179k
$GLBE $154K
$CPNG $148k
$BIGC $132k
$MELI $125k
$AMZN $120k
$OZON $100K
$JD $55K
$SE $54K

Fintech and Payments

Gross Profit / Employee (FY 2020)

$COIN $888K
$V $859K
$KPLT $612K
$SQ $499K
$MA $481k
$UPST $475k
$PYPL $431k
$FUTU $282k
$SOFI $279k
$AFTPY $260k
$DLO $198k
$MELI $126k
$LSPD $105k
$AFRM $63k

Read 10 tweets

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