Bottom: actually the best point for maximum greed, often though the point of maximum fear (point of maximum loss)
Top: actually the best point for maximum fear, often though the point of maximum greed (the point of maximum gain)
In sink?
We had our first attack for discussing the concept that our fear gage is gaining momentum, the attack is a further contrarian indicator that we are on the correct track. Denial is a response most have to their greed thesis being questioned, 90% don't handle well this reality.
Wishing and hoping are not rational mechanisms for wealth building.
Understanding the risk one is taking at a given point of the cycle allows one to control and manage the wealth building process.
How many of you have compounded your wealth at 25% pa + over the last 10yrs?
That would result in $50k becoming $465k or $500k becoming $4.65m.
Just remember coming off 200% growth over the last 18 months due to #uranium, #coal or #natgas stocks isnt generally something you can compound at unless your next switch, is very well timed, near a cycle low.
Is a 2-3x PE cheap for #coal company given extraordinary high spot prices?
The answer is ofcourse no, perhaps 2 upside remains.
Variables to consider:
Low cost producer, still profitable as cycle lows, what's mid cycle CF multiple?
Are volumes expanding?
Is the share count reducing due to stock buy backs?
Using a price to book ratio, is it trading near an historic High?
How much super normal cashflow will be collected, prior to the cycle drop off?
Does the current PE drop to 8-10x using midcycle assumptions?
Whats the debt level?
A combination that could produce a 3-4x return from here:
- 50% sustainable increase in volumes over 2022 as low cost
- a net cash balance sheet allowing 20% of shares to be repurchased over 18 months
- 1st quartile cost producer, always profitable through the cycle