Economic output grew 0.5% in the third quarter (2% annualized). That's a sharp slowdown from the 1.6% (6.7% annualized) in Q2, as supply chain woes and the rise of the Delta variant constrained growth.
nytimes.com/live/2021/10/2…
U.S. GDP surpassed its prepandemic level in the second quarter, but it's still well below the prepandemic trend.
But inflation is a big part of the story here. Nominal (non-inflation-adjusted) GDP is back on its prepandemic trend. But real (inflation-adjusted) GDP is below. Fits with the story of demand outstripping supply, so some of it ends up as higher prices, not more production.
Supply chain snarls played a big role in the Q3 slowdown. Spending on durable goods fell 7%, with autos making up a huge part of the decline.
nytimes.com/live/2021/10/2…
Services spending rose, but more slowly. Spending at hotels and restaurants had been helping to drive the rebound in services spending, but momentum slowed in Q3 because of Delta.
But the big picture is important here. Spending on goods is still way above its pre-Covid level and falling only gradually. Services spending is rising, but still below where it was before the pandemic. And all of that goods spending is contributing to the supply-chain issues.

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More from @bencasselman

29 Oct
Income/spending/inflation data for September:
Personal income (nominal): -1%
Consumer spending (nominal): +0.6%
Consumer prices: +0.3% m/m, +4.4% y/y
Core consumer prices: +0.2% m/m, +3.6% y/y
bea.gov/news/2021/pers…
September Employment Cost Index, *three month* change:
Total compensation: +1.3% (vs 0.7% in June)
Wages and salaries: +1.5% (0.9% June)
Leisure & hosp. wages/salaries: +2.6% (2.8% June)
bls.gov/news.release/e…
The drop in income in September was driven by the end of expanded federal unemployment benefits. Wage and salary income actually rose faster in Sept. than in August. Image
Read 14 tweets
22 Oct
Lots of new state labor market data today!
State and local employment/unemployment: bls.gov/news.release/j…
State-level JOLTS (new report!!!): bls.gov/news.release/j…
I'm busy with other stories today, so won't be delving into the numbers in depth, at least right away. But a few charts to update my earlier reporting on the impact of cutting off UI benefits.
nytimes.com/2021/08/20/bus…
The short version: Still no evidence that states that cut off benefits early have seen significantly faster job growth than states that kept the benefits. The two groups have seen essentially identical job growth since April.
Read 10 tweets
20 Oct
Couple follow-up charts to this, as I continue to dig through the data. (I'm still working through all this, so no big conclusions/takeaways here -- mostly just datapoints and a few observations.)
First, the surge in job-switching is heavily concentrated among younger workers. Among older workers, switching is still below prepandemic levels. Among prime-age (25-54), it's above, but not by that much. But job-to-job transitions are WAY up for workers under 25.
Before you start complaining about "job-hopping Gen-Zers," though, note that: a) job turnover is *always* highest among younger workers, and b) young workers, prepandemic, were changing jobs *less* often than prior generations.
cc @graykimbrough
Read 11 tweets
19 Oct
Fall was meant to mark the beginning of the end of the labor shortage that has held back the economic recovery. Instead, the labor force *shrank* in September. What happened?
Thread below, story here:
nytimes.com/2021/10/19/bus…
Last spring, many people blamed extra unemployment benefits for keeping people out of work. Some GOP politicians continue to make that claim. But the evidence doesn't support it: Data from states that ended benefits early shows that any impact was small.
nytimes.com/2021/08/20/bus…
Many progressives have argued there is a "shortage of wages, not of workers." But pay has been rising rapidly, especially in lower-wage industries, and the hiring difficulties aren't limited to low-wage sectors.
Read 20 tweets
12 Oct
There were 10.4 million job openings at the end of August -- down from July, but still near a record high. #JOLTS
Hiring also fell, and unlike openings has been slow to rebound over all -- only modestly above prepandemic levels.
The number of unemployed workers per job opening ticked up ever so slightly in August, but there are still more jobs than available workers.
(Note: This chart adjusts for workers misclassified as "employed.")
Read 8 tweets
17 Sep
Did states that cut off expanded unemployment benefits early see a surge in job growth? We just got August data from @BLS_gov, and the answer still appears to be "no."
A thread updating this story: nytimes.com/2021/08/20/bus…
States that kept expanded unemployment benefits actually saw slightly *faster* job growth in August than states that ended all pandemic programs, though the difference was not statistically significant. Image
We see the same basic pattern if we instead compare states that kept benefits to those that cut off ANY benefits (i.e. including those that cut the $300 add-on but kept PUA/PEUC). Image
Read 12 tweets

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