At Ensemble we are obsessed with returns on captial/equity. But it is high and *sustainable* returns we care about. We agree with much of this thread’s point that removing too much slack from corporate business models has led to a less resilient corporate sector.
You want management teams to optimize returns on a cross cycle basis, including preparing for unusually negative down cycles, not optimizing for a pro forma world in which disasters never strike.
The management of the optimal level of slack in an organization is a critical issue. Optimal levels of slack are often non-intuitive, as pointed out in this post about wait times at banks and the number of tellers. johndcook.com/blog/2008/10/2…
Here is our five part growth forecasting series. While the series focused on forecasting growth for faster than average growing businesses, the margin for error is often *less* for slow growth companies. See our prior series on slow growth risk at the end of this thread. 1/x
Growth is to investors what the song of the Sirens was to Odysseus. Yet investors shouldn't just ignore growth potential as traditional value investing often implied. 2/x intrinsicinvesting.com/2021/10/04/for…
But growth forecasting is plagued by systematic, excessive optimism. So investors must find a way to control for this as it is the key reason growth investors underperform. 3/x intrinsicinvesting.com/2021/10/05/for…
This dynamic of top talent viewing flexible hybrid work environments as a *requirement* is going to really test some top performing, but old school investment firms. wsj.com/articles/if-yo…
If an analyst is looking for a job, an investment firm that views remote work as a “perk,” requires permission, or has an arbitrary limit, will likely be seen as a firm that is out of touch, doesn’t trust their staff, or is at minimum a slow to adapt organization. Major red flag.
Our guess is there will be a couple year window where top talent incrementally shifts from older established firms to younger, more digitally native, adaptable investment organizations. Then the older firms will capitulate.
1/x In April of 2020 a pair of articles were published within 24 hours of each other by @pmarca and @morganhousel, which together laid out the roadmap for the economic path we are now following. The ship has already set sail, the question is just what the journey will be like.
2/x in @pmarca's piece, he laid out how the US has stopped "building" and that the time had arrived where the only path forward was to Build. a16z.com/2020/04/18/its…
3/x But how will we pay for it? This was the subject that @morganhousel tackled as he laid out the post WWII history of debt levels consistently falling even as the debt was never repaid. collaborativefund.com/blog/who-pays-…
1/x One of the great things about blogging is you assemble a record of real time thoughts during periods of stress. This allows for reviews of what went as expected and what didn't. Our 2020 posts focused mostly on how we were assessing unprecedented levels of change. Links below
2/x Prior to COVID, we wrote about how forecasts are a necessary part of investing. Your only choice is whether to make explicit forecasts or implicit ones. intrinsicinvesting.com/2020/01/10/pic…
3/x We discussed the key difference between a company's products being "relevant" vs "recognizable" and discussed how highly recognizable products may be losing relevance, which lays a trap for investors. intrinsicinvesting.com/2020/02/21/rel…
1/x In 2019, we covered a lot of ground in our posts. We tackled position sizing, introduced a diagram illustrating our investment philosophy, reported on our trip to China, and more. You can explore posts from earlier years in the retweeted threads below.
2/x We started the year talking about "hyperbolic discounting", a "$5 phrase" that explains a lot about investor behavior. intrinsicinvesting.com/2019/01/02/tak…
3/x We sent Arif on a research trip to Italy to have the Ferrari experience first hand. What he came back with was the realization that their business model is best understood as a global "club". intrinsicinvesting.com/2019/01/10/joi…