Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW10 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I address the most common dilemmas in the FPL community before we head into GW10:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

Feel free to like and share if you find it to be helpful ❤️

The GW10 round is open for Fantasy5 and this week looks easier than usual!

What you can win:

- £10,000
- 2021/22 EPL kit of choice
- Apple Watch Series 3
- UCL final tickets
- £100 Amazon gift card

All for free! Just pick your 5 players here: ⬇️

fantasy5.com

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In case you missed it, I also wrote a comprehensive review of GW9 where I cover each match one by one and talk about the implications for GW10. You can read it here! ⬇️

fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fpl-gameweek-9…

Q: In this section, I cover Phil Foden.

Phil Foden (£8.2m) has been in great form recently and clearly looks to have established himself into Pep Guardiola’s first eleven at the moment. Since he started playing four Gameweeks ago, only Salah has a better xG...

... and expected goal involvement (xGi) than Foden. What’s also interesting to note is that only Salah has registered more penalty area touches in this spell. This just highlights how advanced Foden is playing and the dangerous positions he is getting into. It’s very hard to...

... look past him at the moment. In fact, if you don’t own him, I would categorize him as a priority transfer. He’s an explosive asset whenever he plays – in fact in his last 11 Premier league starts, he has eight goals, seven assists and is averaging 8.818 points per game...

... There’s every chance he hauls this week too – the bookies have classified Man City as the favorites to score 2.5 or more goals while there’s also the fact that Palace zonally have conceded more chances down the middle as compared to either of their flanks which is exactly...

... where Foden will be playing. It’s also worth noting that Foden’s goal involvement of 56% is far and above any other Man City player – with Gabriel Jesus at 39% being the only other City player to have a goal involvement rate of over 30% for the champions this season.

Q: Should Kai Havertz be kept or sold?

Kai Havertz (£8.1m) was a major disappointment at the weekend being the only Chelsea player to have blanked in the previous Gameweek. He had two shots in the match and registered an xG of just 0.2. He wasn’t involved in any of the...

... big chances either. Having said that, I would personally keep him for his next two fixtures because that is essentially what you bought him for and not just the Norwich fixture alone. Newcastle have conceded an abnormal number of chances down the middle (40) this...

... season – only Leeds have conceded more in that region. This is where Havertz will be operating and I’d back him to benefit from this zonal weakness.

Q: In this section, I cover Brentford the Brentford attack.

Brentford have had “tough” fixtures against Wolves, Liverpool, West Ham, Chelsea and Leicester in the past five Gameweeks but despite that, they are ranked fourth in the league for big chances and fifth for xG...

...They now play Burnley, Norwich and Newcastle in their next three fixtures – three sides who are in the bottom four for xG conceded this season so their fixtures can’t get any better. No player has hit the woodwork more times than Bryan Mbeumo (£5.6m) this season. Mbeumo...

... is also top among budget midfielders for big chances and despite the fact that the Frenchman is classified as a midfielder in the game, he’s often the furthest man on the field for Brentford. He is the standout player in his price range, and has accumulated the highest xG...

... among all the Brentford players. In isolation, both Mbeumo and Ivan Toney (£6.6m) are bargains to be taken advantage of. Hence, I would have no hesitation doubling up on their attack. I believe Toney is a set and forget pick for the long run. He is on penalties, and...

... his creative ability is extremely underrated. He is joint second among all players for big chances created this season. Toney is also second amongst forwards for expected goal involvement (xGi) – with only Antonio faring better which highlights the value he is offering...

... at the moment. With the high volume of chances that he creates, Toney is highly likely to get bonus points as well whenever he registers an attacking return.

Q: Now I cover Brentford’s defence.

Brentford have had a very difficult fixture schedule over the first nine fixtures so to see a newly promoted side come out of that spell being the second best defence in the league in terms...

... of expected goals conceded (only Man City have fared better) speaks volumes of how well they have performed. The injury to their goalkeeper David Raya (£4.6m) is a blow but the fact that only Liverpool and Man City have conceded fewer shots tells me that it might not have...

... as much of an impact as one would think of at first instant. Ethan Pinnock (£4.7m) has the most shots in the box among all the Brentford defenders and has the best baseline bonus per minutes ratio. Pontus Jansson (£4.7m) has recorded the highest number of big chances...

... and has the best xG among them while Rico Henry (£4.5m) is also a good option to consider. He’s playing as the left wing back for Brentford and only Toney and Mbeumo have accumulated more touches in the final third than Henry in the entire Brentford team.

Q: In this section, I write about Mohamed Salah.

It’s gotten to the stage where I have run out of superlatives for Mohamed Salah (£12.9m). As things stand, Salah is comfortably top for xG in the league this season, in the form of his life and the most reliable captaincy...

... option in the game. He is top in the league for shots in the box, xG, expected goal involvement (xGi) and big chances created this season. Even by his high standards, he is operating at a level which is superior to anything from what we have witnessed from him in the past:

21/22 v 20/21 v 19/20 v 18/19 v 17/18

(Per game data)

Shots in the box: 3.56 v 2.65 v 3.24 v 2.5 v 3.14
Big chances: 1.33 v 0.9 v 0.9 v 0.79 v 1.19
xG: 0.88 v 0.59 v 0.62 v 0.58 v 0.68

What also helps is that he is playing for a Liverpool side who are comfortably top for each one of the relevant attacking underlying statistics – whether it be shots, shots in the box, big chances, xG or non-penalty xG:

xG:

1) Liverpool (25.1)
2) Man City (19.8)

Non penalty xG:
1) Liverpool (24.3)
2) Man City (19.8)

Big chances:
1) Liverpool (37)
2) Man City (27)

Their attack is creating chances at will at the moment. What makes Salah even more explosive is that he has a very high...

... 59% goal involvement rate playing in what is statistically the best attacking side in the league at the moment. Stating the obvious but Salah has reached auto captain territory for the foreseeable future now.

Q: Heung Min Son or Harry Kane?

21/22

(Stats per game)

Son v Kane

Shots in the box: 1.5 v 1.12
Big chances: 0.62 v 0.5
xG: 0.41 v 0.36
Chances created: 2 v 0.75
Expected goal involvement (xGi): 0.6 v 0.6

At this point in time, there is not much between...

... Heung Min Son’s (£10.2m) or Harry Kane’s (£12.1m) numbers. As I pointed above, with Salah being the captain in the coming weeks by default, captaincy isn’t a factor so the extra £2m spending on Kane is hard to justify. I’d pick Son if I had the option to pick one.

Q: In this section, I cover Ben Chilwell.

Ben Chilwell (£5.9m) has now scored in four of his previous five starts for both club and country and comes into this Gameweek in an imperious vein of form. Since his first start of the season in Gameweek 7, he is top for...

... shots inside the box and second for penalty area touches among defenders so it’s evident that he’s getting into promising positions. What I also like about him is that he has taken 16 corners in the three league games that he has started. The number of chances he can...

... create via these set pieces is likely to help him in his bonus accumulation going forward. Chelsea have a good run of fixtures coming up too so clean sheets should be on the menu. He’s a great option to buy if you do not own him.

Here is my Fantasy5 team for the GW! I’ve already written about how far and above Liverpool are to anyone else in the league when it comes to attacking statistics which explains the Jota pick. Emi Martínez is a big loss to Villa which is why I fancy Antonio for a haul as well!

I also do a weekly podcast (@TheFPLWire) with @lateriser12 and @zophar666 where we cover everything FPL relevant for the GW. Catch the latest episode before GW10 here: 👇

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