It really doesn't matter whether vaccines protect 5 times more than prior Covid, to the same level, or even a lesser degree than prior infection. Vaccines are a far safer way to get immunity if you haven't had Covid. And if you already had Covid, vaccines augment that protection.
Remember antibody levels wane after Covid, especially mild Covid. Antibodies are not routinely checked & even if they are, they may have disappeared. So the only reinfections we count will be people who had symptomatic confirmed Covid. Underestimates occurrence.
In contrast everyone knows if they had a Covid vaccine. So breakthrough Covid infections after vaccination don't suffer that kind of underestimation.
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Headlines about a study in @TheLancetInfDis stating that vaccinated people are just as likely to spread Covid as unvaccinated are misleading. Here's why.
1) Vaccination has lower risk of transmission even in this study (see table) & severe disease.
2) This study is primarily on household contacts. Household contacts live with each other. So the exposure is prolonged and sustained. So differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups will narrow in household settings.
3) What the study shows is that transmission from vaccinated people to household contacts can occur but at lower rate than unvaccinated. It also basically explains why the delta wave has occurred in even in some well vaccinated countries.
As close to herd immunity as we can get so far:
5 countries have ~80% or more of their population fully vaccinated.
1) Deaths at or below 0.2 per 100K for >6 months.
2) UK at 68% fully vaccinated has kept deaths low at similar level despite sharp rise in cases. Vaccines work.
To get to 80% or more of total population is not easy when kids <12 are not yet able to get vaccinated.
These 5 countries vaccinated almost 90% or more of eligible population to get here. Kudos!
Since COVID infections seem to occur to some extent even after vaccinations, although much lower and milder that in absence of vaccinations, only time will tell whether we can get to long term herd immunity — with or without further boosters.
On Jan 24, 2020 @DrEricDing posted a massive warning about the impending pandemic: The Holy Mother of God thread.
"We are now faced with the most virulent virus 🦠 epidemic the world has ever seen," Eric wrote.
As I read his thread again today, all of it has sadly come true
1/
He wrote:
"possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let’s hope it doesn’t reach that level but we now live in the modern world 🌎 with faster ✈️+ 🚞 than 1918. @WHO and @CDCgov needs to declare public health emergency ASAP!"
2/
People quarreled with the R0 that was in @DrEricDing's thread, but most epidemiologists and leaders and organizations missed the forest for the trees.
Great article by @EricSylvers@WSJ on what life would look like in a country with high vaccination rate that proceeds cautiously with reopening.
The virus still circulates but deaths are very low. Life gets closer to normal with sensible precautions. wsj.com/articles/endem…
Amazing vaccination stats: 89% of the population have received at least one dose.
Almost 100% of those age 50+. 95% age 25-49.
We need to get over the mind set that wearing masks in some settings or needing to show proof of vaccination is an infringement on freedom. And realize that freedom comes by adopting sensible measures.
It's the repeated waves that pose a bigger threat to our freedom.
For brand-name prescription drugs, U.S. prices can be > 2 to 4 times higher than prices in Australia, Canada, and France.
This is neither fair nor sustainable. Medicare must be able to negotiate prescription drug prices.
The VA negotiates. Medicare doesn't. Result: Medicare pays a lot more for the same drugs. gao.gov/prescription-d…
Mandating that Medicare provide prescription drug coverage benefit for the public while simultaneously mandating that Medicare cannot negotiate the price it pays but pay up whatever Pharma wants is one of the most inexplicable laws ever passed.