The world has warmed >1°c since the mid-C18th as a result of the anthropogenic (human) release of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere 🌍
This is already having devastating consequences around the world: just ask almost any farmer 🌪
2/
Some still claim climate change is either ‘fake news’ or caused by natural phenomena - sun cycles ☀️ volcanoes etc 🌋
This is untrue ❌
Since the human population exploded in the 1800s, atmospheric CO2 levels have risen to unprecedented levels…
3/
…in parallel with our industrial emissions.
Humans are the problem 👋
Awkward.
4/
Where do the vast majority of these emissions come from?
The burning of fossil fuels for energy to generate electricity, power our transport, produce our consumer goods and heat our homes 🏭 🚗 ✈️ 🏠
5/
But - isn’t it COWS that are actually the single biggest source of climate-warming emissions? I mean, that’s what the media says, right?
All we need to do is move to a ‘plant based diet’ to save the planet, right?
No. This is misleading, and dangerous.
6/
Climate change is already happening, but to keep it at ‘manageable’ levels, we must keep warming below 1.5°c
Current international commitments leave us closer to 3°c by 2100. This would be disastrous.
Think Mad Max 🏜
7/
So, back to cows.
They emit methane (CH4) from enteric fermentation as they ruminate - or chew the cud. (Cows are clearly thoughtful animals).
Essentially, CH4 is a byproduct of converting pretty indigestible (to us) grass into tasty beef & milk 🌱
8/
Methane is 28x more warming than CO2; this is important for farming because agriculture contributes more than half of all methane in the UK, primarily from ruminant digestion 🐄
BUT: CH4 also breaks down after c10 years, vs centuries for CO2 ⏳
9/
The warming potential of methane is calculated using the GWP100 metric, which assumes that CO2 has a warming score of 1, CH4 of 28 over 100 years (ie is 28x more warming over a century).
But this dismisses the fact that methane is a short-lived gas, inflating its impact.
10/
This many scientists now believe a new measurement is needed to accurately calculate the warming effect of CH4 in climate modelling - GWP*
This isn’t to deny methane is an important GHG, but that its impact is currently overstated vs CO2.
What’s more, the CH4 emitted by cattle (biogenic) is different to that released in the burning of fossil fuels 🔥
It’s part of the natural carbon cycle, where CH4 is broken down after 10 years into CO2, which is in turn recycled via photosynthesis & further rumination ♻️
12/
That makes biogenic methane a ‘flow gas’ - after ten years, a static population of cattle is creating no new warming as the gas constantly cycles.
In contrast, ‘stock gas’ CO2 remains in the atmosphere for centuries, adding constant warming with every year that passes.
13/
That’s why, despite the pandemic, atmospheric CO2 reached record levels in 2020.
Every tonne of CO2 which is burned is adding warming, and will do for centuries.
We would need to stop burning fossil fuels tomorrow - totally - to arrest this rise.
It’s also worth noting that the biggest global emitter of methane is (of course) the fossil fuel industry.
And unlike biogenic methane, this CH4 was safely buried, inert, in the ground (along with all that CO2) before we dug it up and flared it into the atmosphere 🔥
15/
With cattle, were we to make the national herd more efficient, or reduce their emissions through breeding/diet, we could (after a decade) induce a COOLING effect on the climate as that biogenic methane breaks down & is sequestered in biomass & soil.
Because if people are led to believe that going ‘meat free’ is making a meaningful contribution to the existential threat posed by climate change, they’re mistaken.
This distracts us from the bigger challenges we face & reduces action.
19/
And make no mistake, the consequences of failing to mitigate the worst excesses of anthropogenic climate change are truly dire.
Sustainable farming - including livestock - is part of the solution to climate change, and I’m proud to be part of an industry which has a plan to achieve that with real activities, not just ‘offsetting’ and continuing business as usual.
It’s baffling that a 🇬🇧 govt is fighting tooth & nail to renege on its own manifesto commitment, sell out its farmers & inflict the dregs of the global food bargain basement on the poorest in our society. And for what? This? ⤵️
Massive respect & thanks to those dozen or so Conservative MPs who did vote to their conscience & honour their manifesto commitment, inc -
Brexit has ensured that no British government in memory has lavished so many warm words on its farmers, but the reality of policy discussions behind the scenes often seems far more ambivalent towards the future of a £122bn food & farming industry.
Ultimately, government’s plan for post-Brexit farming does not work.
Removing globally universal state support for food production, increasing domestic standards & opening markets up to unfair competition = a devastating triple whammy for 🇬🇧 farmers.
61% of the average English Farm Business Income derives from the CAP’s direct support - with huge variation across sectors.
From 8% in intensive poultry to a whopping 114% for mixed farming.
From 2021, government is withdrawing this direct support to £0 by 2027.
1/8
This direct financial support (to be found in most countries) allows UK farmers to produce some of the world’s cheapest food to the highest standards of safety, welfare & environmental sustainability.
Essentially, it underwrites our cheap food system.
2/8
To put it another way; arable (bread, cereals, beer) and grazed livestock (lamb, beef) farmers lose money on every tonne of grain or cow/sheep they produce (on average). Those who do both, lose the most!
But to this point, direct payments have kept the food coming 🍽
The battle over trade standards is political spin at its unedifying worst.
Nobody wants to see our high 🇬🇧 standards undercut, yet government is forced to tie itself in increasingly Gordian knots in an attempt to obfuscate & run down the clock [1/3]
There’s so much happening in 🌍 right now - including many tragedies - but farmers are asking you to lend your support to the campaign to protect 🇬🇧 food standards from being undercut in future trade deals.
Here’s why this is important & why you should care [1]