Thread by @DionisCenusa

#Moldova_Russia: The situation around the gas supply did not improve, while the temperature is dropping. As the energy crisis looms, the Moldovan authorities and some segments of the public accuse Russia of triggering the crisis (THREAD):

1) Infrastructure Minister Spanu traveled to Poland on a two-day working trip to discuss gas supply opportunities, namely the purchase of liquefied gas from the LNG terminal in the Baltic Sea (5 bcm). Poland itself will stop buying Russian gas after 2022, investing in⤵️

expanding its LNG capacity to 8 bcm by 2023. 2) On the other hand, there is no signal from Russia. There are strong local views that Moscow is purposefully causing the energy crisis. According to them, after showing initial openness for the extension of the old contract, Russia⤵️

has suddenly closed the communication channel and refused to sign it. 3) As a result, the Moldovan government was not prepared to face an energy crisis. In this sense, the Moldovan side began to speak of "political blackmail" by Russia. However, it did not present any⤵️

evidence about what exactly is Moscow forcing Moldova to accept. No one can explain what is the "political price" that the Moldovan government is supposed to pay. However, in the context of this energy crisis, the idea is crystallizing that an "energy divorce"⤵️

with Russia is vital. 4) The current crisis is believed to be a tipping point that could ideally lead to a qualitative change in Russia's attitude towards Moldova. Meanwhile, there is little public information about the solutions that are in the hands of the government to

guarantee the gas supply. State financial support to vulnerable categories is something the government said it is willing to provide. 5) In any case, it is highly likely that Russia will extend the contract to keep the breakaway region of Transnistria, which relies on Russian⤵️

gas on many levels, warm. It is also true that the Moldovan government will have to guarantee gas for the population of the breakaway region, regardless of whether it brings it from Russia, Poland or elsewhere. 6) Although Romania's gas pipeline is operational, the country⤵️

faces energy shortages. In addition, the import of gas from Romania into the Moldova gas system is not yet possible because the "unbundling" has not been finalized, giving Gazprom an upper hand through the national gas supplier MoldovaGaz and the system transport operator⤵️

MoldovaTransgaz that it founded. 7) The government in Chisinau relies on the EU, but no public request was addressed to it for help. Transparency and strategic communication are deficient, but⤵️

the supporters of the government justify that it is a necessary maneuver so as to keep an element of surprise in the complicated gas relations with Russia. END.