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2 Nov, 3 tweets, 1 min read
looking at all important races in the country: What are your top indicators for "wow, Dems are besting expectations" vs "this night is a GOP triumph"?
My pick for GOP may be #NJGov or control of LI counties. Better answer in terms of right-wing power may be how much they flip school boards, but that'll take a while to decipher.

My pick for Dems wld be a gain on PA Supreme Court; wld certainly offset received wisdom on turnout.
This conceals that many of the night's defining elections are ideological conflicts within the Dem coalition: Boston & surroundings, Buffalo, Minneapolis, Seattle, #FL20, referendums in St Paul, Boulder, Tucson...

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More from @Taniel

Taniel Profile picture
1 Nov
All eyes are on Virginia, but so many states have major stakes on the ballot tomorrow. With hours to go before Election Day, it's time to drill down.

Here's a thread on many states that matter: idea is to encapsulate as many stakes as I can for each within 280 characters.
A disclaimer that this thread can't possibly rival the mega-thread I did 12 months ago what was brewing in each state, plus DC and Puerto Rico. (See below.)

But getting our attention to the breadth of what's going on feels just as important!
1️⃣ Virginia (where else to start?):

—Gov race is the one we're all looking at
—Dems also defend Assembly (GOP needs +5 to tie)
—Combined: do Dems keep trifecta?
—Two other statewide races: LG & AG
—Watch prosecutor race in Chesapeake (most others decided in primary or at filing)
Read 21 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
29 Oct
This is wild: nytimes.com/2021/10/29/us/…
The three scholars that the state of Florida is forbidding to testify on the effects of the state's new voting restrictions are: Dan Smith (@electionsmith), Michael McDonald (@ElectProject), and Sharon Wright Austin.
“The university does not exist to protect the governor."

nytimes.com/2021/10/29/us/…
Read 5 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
27 Oct
Local elections can make a huge difference.

Including prosecutorial elections

Here's one thread about why. It's about New Orleans.
FIrst, let's start with the record of the prosecutor whose term ended last year.
theappeal.org/politicalrepor…
December 2020:
Read 12 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
25 Oct
There’s no reason to either overanalyze what Virginia means for the nation in 2022 or 2032 (or to diminish its stakes) — when there’s so much to say about why next week’s elections matter for Virginia, & even if you’re not there for voting rights & crim justice & so much else.
If you care about rights restoration: the future of Virginia’s policy (established by McAuliffe in his first term) of enabling people with felony convictions to regain the right to vote hangs in the balance. As does the multi-year process to amend the constitution over this.
If you care about mass incarceration: VA is notably desolate when it comes to giving people a chance at release after decades in prison, and changing that has been a goal for advocates there after some recent change (esp. for youth). It’s also something GOP wants to preserve.
Read 5 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
17 Oct
The latest in Zemmour's "we need a strongman" campaign: He's campaigning on needing a "strong state" that "take away powers" from "counter-power institutions... namely the courts, the media, & minorities."

Many layers of unadultered far-right discourse:
lemonde.fr/politique/arti…
Most telling sign of who Zemmour is, & far-right legacy he appeals to: In new rally, he shrugged away the violence of October 17, 1961, the massacre & mass drowning of Algerian protesters by French police in Paris. France has long suppressed that history, until recently.
Obvious parallel to what US far-right (& many nationalist movements) try to gain steam off of: reject recognition & discussion of a history of violence as somehow an insult to national pride & as a leftist project (he described it as 'an antiracist, LGBT, islamoleftist ideology")
Read 4 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
8 Oct
oof, so much cringe nytimes.com/2021/10/07/opi…
You can give the replies the benefit of the doubt (it may be weird to ask how people feels about voting rights writ large since I suppose no one tends to just be explicitly against those, and I guess the legislation has a lot of components) until you get to that last sentence
I'd like to note a lot of the conversation is in that vein, lest it look that my selection was harsh. nytimes.com/2021/10/07/opi…
Read 4 tweets

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