As I write below in every election since 2016 - 2018, 2020, 2021 GA/CA - Dems have won, seen very high end turnout. Been quite a run.

Will see what happens tonight but we know turnout is very high. If Ds win would continue MAGA's remarkable losing streak.
I think Dems need an argument about MAGA not just Trump.

Realize @TerryMcAuliffe shorthanded it in the closing days, but goal should be to show how MAGA has replaced conservatism in the GOP, and brand the entire party as unfit/extreme.

@TheDemocrats DNC needs to lead on this.
Biden Job Approval

Oct 1 - Biden 45.9-48.7 (-2.8)
Nov 2 - Biden 43.3-51.1 (-7.8)

via @FiveThirtyEight
Here is a memo I wrote almost a month ago.

That we are still a month later debating, fighting, discussing is reckless and dangerous. The leader of the party needs to bring the party together. It is time.

ndn.org/time-for-dems-…
Biden's approval dropped 5 points in October.

That was the difference.

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More from @SimonWDC

4 Nov
So, a thread about digging out of our current hole and making the 2022 elections competitive again.

Our most important job now is to lead America through the end of COVID and into a sustained recovery. That is why Biden was elected, and it is work that is still not finished. 1/
COVID has an extraordinary trauma for everyone.

There may not be a singular event this disruptive to our basic lives again in many of our lifetimes.

Getting us through it, ending it, putting it behind us remains job #1 for Democrats. 2/

ndn.org/3-reasons-why-…
Using @NavigatorSurvey data I modeled out the top issues for what would be typical Dem swing district right now:

COVID 64%
Econ/Jobs 60%
Climate/Extreme Weather 40%
Health Care 39%

This is our map, our guide for where we have to spend our time these next six months. 3/
Read 13 tweets
15 Oct
So, the new strategy memo I just published about how Biden can get his poll numbers back up and once again seize control of the national debate has gotten a bit of attention this week.

Here's the memo: ndn.org/time-for-dems-… 1/
Talked about the memo and why I would rather be us than them next year with my friend and teacher @JoeTrippi for his pod this week. 2/

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sim…
@JoeTrippi Also talked to the great @ronbrownstein about how central defeating COVID is to unlocking the power of the rest of the President's agenda in his new @TheAtlantic column. 3/
theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
Read 10 tweets
13 Oct
This insight from the new @CBSNews poll on Biden's Build Back Better agenda needs more internal Dem discussion:

"only about a third of Americans think the plan would help them directly — or help the economy overall."

That's after 5 months of debating it.
cbsnews.com/news/democrats…
My point here is that we are in a deeper hole than I think people understand rn.

Biden's numbers are way down, our BBB agenda is not breaking through.

I try to lay out a path forward for us in this new memo, but we have a lot of work ahead of us.

ndn.org/time-for-dems-…
Very few polls I've seen from our side tested BBB against attacks. Let's see how it holds up against:

a “multitrillion-dollar spending spree” and “the largest tax increase in decades” that will lead to further inflation. “It’ll cost you."

Real world now.
washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-s…
Read 5 tweets
7 Oct
Held a terrific conversation yesterday about the future of Facebook and Instagram with the brilliant @zamaan_qureshi.

Hope you can check it out. (1/x)

ndn.org/video-facebook…
You can also catch @zamaan_qureshi with his colleague @DestineeAdams16 on Morning Joe yesterday. It's a really great segment. (2/x)

msnbc.com/morning-joe/wa…
Here is the compelling @Time essay @zamaan_qureshi and @DestineeAdams16 wrote that got them thrust into this vital national conversation. (3/x)

time.com/6100182/instag…
Read 6 tweets
4 Oct
The read that it's OK to delay the promised infrastructure vote because ultimately moderates will get a smaller BBB bill is not exactly right.

Think what most 2022 candidates truly wanted was a consensual process, like the ARP, and to avoid looking like Dems have run left.
For those running in 2022, sustained factional infighting needed to be avoided at all costs, as did anything that could be used by GOP to be able to say "see we were right - the socialists are taking over."

These concerns are just as/more important as the size of the package.
Not sure how we ended up with a process different from what created the American Rescue Plan. But during this period from late June on when the party struggles broke out, Biden's numbers have dropped 13 points on @FiveThirtyEight.
Read 5 tweets
29 Sep
Been amazing to watch the flood of polls hitting the center-left ecosystem this year.

What remains common, and arguably dangerous, is the failure of many to distinguish between what is popular and what is popular AND important, meaning that it could drive someone's vote. 1/x
Let's use latest @NavigatorSurvey data on what Dem voters want Biden/Congress to focus on:

COVID 75%
Jobs/Economy 51%
Climate/Weather 48%
Health Care 41%
Social Security/Medicare 28%
Afghanistan 25%
Natl Security 21%
What the clear dominance of COVID in the issue environment right now means that any poll testing Biden's agenda which does not test elements against COVID and the ARP-led recovery are painting a very incomplete picture, and may in fact be misleading. 3/x
Read 12 tweets

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