Insights on the recent wave of COVID-19 infections in @Singapore
The present wave in Singapore is of interest since a significant large proportion (82.7%) of population has received 2 doses of #COVID19#vaccines but nevertheless have a wave of infections and deaths.
With respect to COVID-19 variants and VoCs, clearly Delta (and 2 prominent sublineages AY.23 and AY.23.1) dominate the present wave of infections.
Data: @DiseaseOutbreak
There are some interesting insights, thanks to the data made available at data.gov.sg
While on first look there is a significant number of cases spread across all age-groups.
The community cases are largely dominated by the younger age-groups (59 years and above)
This trend reverses drastically when it comes to the hospitalized patients, with a huge majority of the patients coming from 60+ years.
Another interesting observation is indeed the disproportionate number of hospitalized children.
But when it comes to deaths, the significant majority seems to have occurred in 70years and above, compared to other age groups as also seen elsewhere.
The overall nos of deaths (and CFR) is low possibly due to the continued public-health measures.
A close look at the deaths and vaccination status suggests a significant number of people who die are unvaccinated/partially vaccinated. This re-emphasizes the now established fact that vaccination indeed protects against severe disease and death, though not as much against inf.
What are the take-home points ?
▶️ High overall vaccination numbers might hide the fact that a small number of individuals still remain vaccinated and therefore possibly more vulnerable.
▶️ We possibly need to ensure #everyone in the vulnerable age-groups are vaccinated.
Sorry for the typo : to be read as ... High overall vaccination numbers might hide the fact that a small number of individuals still remain un-vaccinated and therefore possibly more vulnerable.
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#Zika virus outbreaks in #India. Should we be worried ?
A long 🧵
#Zika is not a new virus.
🔴We have known it for decades, and India has seen previous, albeit small outbreaks in multiple states. Gujarat, Rajasthan, Kerala, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, MP, TamilNadu , Delhi, Punjab, Telengana and Jharkhand in the previous years.
🔴This year, we have a multi-state outbreak with cases reported from Karnataka, Kerala and at least three districts in Maharashtra.
🔴The actual number of cases are unknown as there is no public tracker yet and the known is possibly just a small fraction of the disease burden.
🔴 #Mpox aka #Monkeypox is spreading .
But not where you think it is.
A short 🧵
The latest situation report on the multi-country outbreak of #mpox from @WHO has come out . In Summary:
▶️ 87,929 cases and 146 deaths from Jan 2022
▶️ 111 countries / territories affected as of date
▶️ The European and American Outbreak of #mpox which followed a super spreader event last year is pretty well under control.
There are few cases still being reported, but vaccination campaigns have brought the outbreak pretty well under control.
▶️ Continued infection of poultry and spillover into humans could potentially accelerate evolution and adaptation to human to human tranmission
▶️ Adaptation to other mammals noted in the past, through evolutionary processes.
▶️ Genome analysis suggest the origin by reassortment of genomes from poultry H9N2 backbone
#COVID19 in #China.
What we know and what we don't.
A long thread, summarizing my thoughts, which I hope to keep updated over the coming weeks.
To give a brief background:
The aggressive approach by #China to contain the virus following initial cases in Wuhan, has been seen with awe and admiration by man.
This included:
🔴Strict quarantine & lockdown
🔴Massive testing & surveillance
🔴Early vaccines
🔴Health Infra
While COVID19 spread across the rest of the world, infecting and killing millions of people, and putting healthcare infrastructure to the brim of their capacities, China remained isolated, contained the spread and remained an outlier in many aspects.
Data @WHO
🔘Recombinant variants of SARS-CoV-2 and XBB/XBB.1 the recent and emerging recombinant variants with large immune evasive potential.
A short 🧵on emerging evidence.
Recombinant variants of viruses are generated when two or more viruses co-infect a cell at the same time. Chances for co-infection is rare, but nevertheless they occur.
Genomic surveillance can efficiently pick up such recombinant isolates.
There are 49 odd recombinant variants now catalogued for #SARSCoV2 by @PangoNetwork , an open collaboration of scientists across the world.
PANGO names recombinant variants of #SARSCoV2 with a name starting with 'X'.
🔴The curious case of Indian #Monkeypox Genomes
Wonderful effort by clinicians in @KeralaHealth who diagnosed the disease and researchers at @icmr_niv, we now have sequences of MPX isolates in @GISAID .
This short 🧵is on what the early genomes say.
Analysis @bani_jolly
Briefly 4⃣ genome sequences have been deposited for two samples (EPI_ISL_13953610 and EPI_ISL_13953611) along with 2 re-sequenced genomes from isolates of one of the sample.
▶️Both the isolates were from early cases reported from Kerala
▶️Both cases have a travel history
The present sustained human-human transmission of the MPX virus is believed to have happened via superspreader events in Europe with 16000+ cases now spread across 70+ countries,
The initial cases seemingly were predominantly among gays/bisexuals and msm networks