Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW11 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I address the most common dilemmas in the FPL community before we head into Gameweek 11:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

Feel free to like and share if you find it to be helpful ❤️

The GW11 round is open for Fantasy5 and there are lots of prizes up for grabs!

What you can win:

- £10,000
- Brand new Apple iPad
- Brand new PS5
- £50 PS Card
- £50 Xbox gift card

All for free! Play here:

fantasy5.com/football

In case you missed it, I also wrote a comprehensive review of GW10 where I cover each match one by one and talk about the implications for GW11. You can read it here!

fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fpl-gameweek-1…

Q: In this section, I cover Ben Chilwell and Reece James.

I start with this quote from Ben Chilwell:

"He (Tuchel) wants defenders to score goals and attackers to do the defensive side. It's quite funny because after the game against Newcastle, we won 3-0 but there's...

... part of me disappointed because I didn't get a goal but I was buzzing that Reecey on the other side got two."

21/22

Penalty area touches per start (Defenders)

Tavares 4.5
James 3.6
Chilwell 3.5
Tsimikas 2.67
Cash 2.6
Azpi 2.57
Alonso/Cancelo 2.5

The numbers for penalty area touches give context to Tuchel’s play-style and emphasize how he wants his wing backs to play. Both Ben Chilwell (£6m) and Reece James (£5.8m) registered more than 40 touches in the final third against Newcastle and were a constant menace...

... James himself has now scored thrice in his previous two Premier League starts which is no coincidence given some of the promising positions he has been taking up. Not only did James score for the second successive game, he also created a big chance, had seven penalty area...

... touches and recorded a total of three shots from inside the box (which was the highest in the game). Chilwell has scored in four of his previous six starts for both club and country and has found a rich vein of form. What I also like about him is that he has taken...

... 17 corners in the four league games that he has started so the number of chances he can create via these set pieces is likely to help him in his bonus accumulation going forward. Since he started playing four weeks ago, he is top among defenders for shots in the box and...

... penalty area touches at the same time being ranked second for xG. Doubling up on both Chelsea wing backs given their form is a great idea and one that could yield immediate returns given that Chelsea are ranked as the favorites for both a clean sheet (58% chance) and...

... as the team most likely to score 2.5+ goals (48% chance) this week. However, Chelsea will now be playing 13 matches in 42 games so fantasy managers might have to be mentally prepared for rotation.

Q: Who would I pick if I had to pick one of Chilwell and James?

This is by far the toughest question of the week to answer. I think if I had to pick one, I’d pick James at this point in time. Here’s why:

Chances conceded down the left flank this season:

1) Leicester 47
2) Burnley 44
3) Norwich 42
4) Watford/Newcastle 39
Reece James has already hauled against Newcastle and Norwich. He now faces three of those teams who have a zonal weakness on his flank in his next four...

...His underlying numbers this season have been better than Chilwell’s:

James v Chilwell

Mins per shot in the box: 62 v 60
Mins per big chance: 186 v 360
Mins per chance created: 37 v 60
Mins per penalty area touch: 18.6 v 25.7
Mins per expected involvement (xGi): 183 v 387

A couple of weeks ago, I had my doubts regarding James’ security of starts. I feared that there will be weeks (as seen last season) where James will come off the bench and leave his owners susceptible to a one pointer. With his recent run of form, he is pretty much close to...

... un-droppable now. In the three matches that he has played 90 minutes in this season, James has registered at least an expected involvement of 0.4 which is great for a defender. The sample for that is small, but it just shows how explosive James can be when he is playing.

Q: What impact is Antonio Conte likely to have on the Spurs assets?

The news that Antonio Conte has taken over the Spurs job automatically makes their assets more appealing. In his previous stints, the Italian has gotten off to great starts and given that Spurs embark on a...

... favourable run of fixtures from Gameweek 12, owning one of their attacking assets is highly desirable. It’s almost as if this is the recipe for a new manager bounce. Some of the results that Antonio Conte has achieved in his first season at a club are nothing short of...

... staggering. He took Juventus from being ranked seventh in the previous season to Scudetto winners while at Chelsea, he registered 30 wins in 38 matches taking them from 10th in the previous season to winning the league title by seven points.
Conte is known to be...

... a quick starter. In his first ten games at each of these three clubs, these are the results he managed: (Caveat to these stats being the difference in squad quality and lack of a pre-season at Spurs)

Juventus: 5 wins, 5 draws, 0 losses. 16 goals for, 7 against. 4 clean sheets.

Chelsea: 7 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. 21 goals for, 9 against. 5 clean sheets.

Inter: 8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss. 21 goals for, 10 against. 4 clean sheets.

Conte’s team have done really well historically when it comes to defence. Chelsea recorded 16 clean sheets in the league in both of the seasons Conte was in charge. Similarly, Inter recorded 15 and 14 clean sheets respectively in the two seasons Conte was their manager...

... He is likely to adopt a 3-5-2 system, which could make the likes of Emerson Royal (£4.9m) and Sergio Reguilon (£5m) stand out. Conte has had a lot of success working with the likes of Alonso, Moses and Hakimi in the past. At Inter, around 45% of his league goals were...

... contributed in one way or the other by his two wing backs. Both Harry Kane (£12.1m) and Heung Min Son (£10.2m) are likely to be the centre of attention after Conte’s appointment. Fans are excited to see whether they can replicate the Lukaku-Martinez partnership at Inter...

... Both Kane and Son have had good track records under new managers whether it be Mourinho or Mason previously. It’s fair to say that Conte has had his fair share of success working with strikers in his career – Romelu Lukaku scored 47 goals in 72 league appearances, Carlos...

... Tevez scored 19 goals in 34 league appearances and Diego Costa scored 20 goals in 35 league appearances under him. Harry Kane has been off color this season and could benefit from Conte’s arrival given the Italian’s past record. Reliable sources close suggest...

... Kane is looking forward to the appointment. During punditry for the Euro 2020, this is what Conte had to say about Kane: "As a coach, I'd always like to keep him in the box because that's where he is clinical."

Son is likely to benefit by playing as an out of position forward. Despite the struggles of his side, the South Korean has now managed to record at least one big chance involvement in each of his previous five fixtures as his underlying numbers continue to improve.

Q: In this section, I cover the West Ham attack.

Jarrod Bowen (£6.3m) was the headline act for West Ham last week. He registered ten touches in the penalty area box and his underlying numbers were highly impressive. He richly deserved his double digit haul as he topped the...

... charts for xG and shots in the box in the previous Gameweek. Michail Antonio (£8.2m) has now blanked thrice in four games with growing concerns over the Jamaican as West Ham face a tough run of fixtures. However, it’s worth noting that he “assisted the assister” twice...

... in the Villa game. His numbers are still decent as he has registered at least one big chance involvement in his previous three fixtures. Antonio’s underlying numbers have been very impressive this season. The Hammers striker remains second only to Salah for xG despite...

... missing one game due to suspension. West Ham are fourth for xG, averaging 1.9 xG per game. They are a team in form and strike me as the sort of team who will score even against the difficult defences in the league. They have some tough fixtures coming up (LIV wol mci BHA)...

... but the fact of the matter is that they scored in each of these four reverse fixtures last season. David Moyes’ side scored 7 goals in the process and averaged nearly two goals per game. I would be in no rush to sell him if I owned him. Saïd Benrahma (£6.5m) recorded an...

... assist v Villa but his numbers have been following a downward trend. The Algerian has recorded just one big chance involvement across his previous five fixtures:

Gameweek 1-5:

Benrahma v Bowen

Big chance involvements: 4 v 2
xG: 1.5 v 1.49
Expected goal involvement (xGi): 2.8 v 2.2

Gameweek 6-10:

Benrahma v Bowen

Big chance involvements: 1 v 4
xG: 0.8 v 2.48
Expected goal involvement (xGi): 1.7 v 3.7

Q: In this section, I cover the Brentford attack.

I’m beginning to sound like a broken record but I still think the Brentford double up is the way to go as they represent such excellent value. Both Bryan Mbeumo (£5.6m) and Ivan Toney (£6.6m) have not delivered as per...

... expectations in the recent weeks but I’m backing them to come good with a favorable run of fixtures.
No player has hit the woodwork more times than Mbeumo (6) this season. Mbeumo is also top among budget midfielders for big chances and despite the fact that the Frenchman...

... is classified as a midfielder in the game, he’s often the furthest man on the field for Brentford. He is the standout player in his price range, and has accumulated the highest xG among all the Brentford players. In isolation, both Mbeumo and Toney are bargains to be taken...

... advantage of. Hence, I would have no hesitation doubling up on their attack. I believe Toney is a set and forget pick for the long run. He is on penalties, and his creative ability is extremely underrated. Toney is joint second among all players for big chances created...

... this season. He is also second amongst forwards for expected goal involvement (xGi) – with only Antonio faring better. With the high volume of chances that Toney creates, he is highly likely to get bonus points as well whenever he registers an attacking return. Even in the...

... previous Gameweek against Burnley, Toney managed to get three shots from inside the box including one big chance but unfortunately failed to provide any sort of return...

... I think he will deliver against Norwich who have conceded the second highest number of chances down the middle (45) this season, which is where Toney will be operating.

Q: Should Raphinha be sold ahead of a tough run of fixtures?

Raphinha (£6.6m) for me is the best midfielder in his price range. His underlying numbers are as good as it gets for someone of his price. The Brazilian has recorded 19 big chance involvements in 27 matches this...

... calendar year and remains in a league of his own when it comes to budget midfielders. Quite a few fantasy managers are looking to sell him with a tough upcoming schedule but I don’t think this is the week to sell. He got a nine-pointer v Norwich where he was playing as the...

... most advanced Leeds player. I think there’s a very good chance he hauls this week too given that there is a weakness on Leicester’s left flank to be exploited. Leicester have conceded the highest number of chances down their left flank this season. They have conceded...

... 51% of their chances down that flank as opposed to 22% centrally and 27% on the right. This bodes well for the Brazilian.

Here is my Fantasy5 team for the GW! I’ve picked Trossard as he’s been in form and has leading totals among Brighton players for shots in the box and chances created this season. Firmino’s injury makes Jota a very enticing option which explains my selection.

I also do a weekly podcast (@TheFPLWire) with @lateriser12 and @zophar666 where we cover everything FPL relevant for the GW. Catch the latest episode before GW11 here: 👇

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