A Twitter story

Act I. I see this tweet👇 and DM old friend @ben_golub saying “yeah, that’s definitely not right, the seller would just invert Zillow’s signal, etc,, but I don’t want feel like a late night fight with a big account.” Ben’s like “I do.”
Act II. Turns out that while OP’s original post implied seller’s 𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘦 was N(1,s) but instead solved as if seller’s 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘷𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦 were N(1,s), per this tweet👇

Bayesian updating: when will they ever learn?
Act III. @Noahpinion and @ShengwuLi point out this is just Milgrom–Stokey 80. Of course, “this is pointless economist bullshit” because even though OP set up a model without e.g., noise traders and then solved it incorrectly, the real world is complicated so shut up nerds.
ACT IV. Wake up. Check notifications. Tweet this.

Academics be like
[Figure 1 goes about here]

Practitioners be like
[Figure 2 goes about here]

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More from @lukestein

5 Nov
Excited for @BabsonFinance seminar on a cool new paper by Hadlock, Jing Huang (E&Y), Paul Obermann (U Alabama) and Joshua Pierce (U Alabama)

New data on S&P1500 division mngrs matched to segment performance. Connect managers to their CEOs (schools, prior employers, social orgs)
Managers who are connected with the CEO:
• MUCH less likely to depart/more likely to get promoted
• No performance–dismissal sensitivity (it’s there for the unconnected)
• ≈ Same for hired vs. inherited connections!

Good for the shareholders? Hard to say but…
…looks like this “friends-with-benefits” situation is bad:
• Outside labor market outcomes after departure much poorer for dismissed connected managers than unconnected (the “retread” market)
• Appointing connected managers not associated with performance improvements
Read 4 tweets
28 Mar 20
As usual, a great volatility explainer thread from Benn👇. It’s true that the market and VIX *usually* have a negative relationship. (The market tends to fall faster than it rises, there may be more hedging demand during downturns, …) But… 1/4
… markets *can* rise quickly, and volatility—both realized and implied—can be high during rallies. As it is now!

The relationship between VIX and the market is NOT always linear. Not even close. However, if you started paying attention recently… 2/4
…the (negative) VIX–market relationship probably looked *very* linear. In fact, as of ten days ago, the linearity was arguably the strongest it had *ever* been in the VIX’s 30-year history!

But that was ten days ago. Things change, and… 3/4
Read 4 tweets
8 Mar 20
OK folks. Here’s my thread on technology for teaching online.🦠 I’m not an expert, but I’ve got some thoughts.

My goal is to cover a few things you might consider if you’re trying to quickly get an existing course online. And my focus is on technology, not pedagogy. 1/
Plan:
① Streaming/recording software
② Basic hardware
③ Presentation software
④ Advanced hardware
⑤ Tips and tricks

I’m not going to cover discussion forums, homework, etc. Your students probably already use an LMS (Blackboard or Canvas) and I’d stick with that for now. 2/
① STREAMING/RECORDING SOFTWARE

Key question is teaching synchronously (live) vs recorded.

Synchronous teaching should still get recorded for later, but ANY live viewing—and especially live interaction—requires particular software.

Recording? You have much more flexibility. 3/
Read 31 tweets
7 Mar 20
Suppose you had a side hustle catching snails on the weekend and delivering them to a restaurant catering to French tourists. You’d love to get some sense each Saturday of how many tourists are likely to arrive over the next week so you know how much time to spend snailing. 🐌 1/
You’re in luck: It turns out that there’s an arcane organization (the Coalition of Bakery Oven Examiners, or CBOE) who publish just such a forecast, called the FIX (i.e., the “French visitors IndeX”). Their forecast isn’t perfect, but it’s on their website so 🤷‍♂️. 2/
What does this have to do with baking? Who knows and who cares?! You’ve got your forecast and it helps you with your snailing.

But then you get an idea for a new side hustle. The French go on vacation in August. The FIX will go up then. You can predict it in advance! 💰 3/
Read 20 tweets
7 Dec 19
Heading in to our first session at the 2020 Financial Reaearch Association conference; live-tweet starts now. (If you’re not interested, please 48-hour mute hashtag #FRA20 ). Program with paper links is here: fraconference.com/current-progra…
…and if you’re eager to get going early, here’s my #FRA2019 thread from last year: #FRA20
First paper is on cash windfalls and wages (by Sabrina Howell and J. David Brown; presented by Cesare Fracassi).

Lots of papers ask what happens when firms get cash windfalls. Paper uses SBA-provided Small Business Innovation Research Grants (~$2.2B/yr). #FRA20
Read 46 tweets
26 Apr 19
Very excited for this Kentucky Finance Conference. It’s one of my favorite “boutique” conferences; always a great set of papers and awesome discussants. I met @arpitrage here for the first time last year.

Thread warning; mute if boring.
uky.edu/financeconfere… #KentuckyFin2019
First up, “Endogenous Price War Risks” by Winston Dou (with Yan Ji and Wei Wu). Price wars are moves to a new, collusive low-price Nash Equilibrium #KentuckyFin2019
Stylized facts:
1. (Low-frequency) consumption growth covaries with profit margins
2. There are more price wars when growth is low
3. Growth predicts profit margins particularly for low-innovation capacity industries
#KentuckyFin2019
Read 47 tweets

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