NEW: Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise again across Europe, with rates of all three metrics surpassing the UK in many countries
Starting in the west: Belgium, Netherlands & Germany in particular experiencing sharp increases in not only cases but ICU & deaths too
And the picture worsens as we move further east.
In central Europe, cases were a fraction of UK levels over summer, but have now rocketed past, with ICU occupancy and deaths also climbing fast.
Vaccine coverage is generally lower here than in western Europe.
In eastern Europe, the situation is dire.
Romania, Bulgaria & Latvia all set new records for daily deaths in recent weeks, and deaths are 10x current UK levels.
In much of western Europe it can feel like the pandemic is an echo of its past self. Try telling that to the east
If we extend our gaze even further east, *11 countries* have set new records for Covid deaths in the last few weeks.
It genuinely stops you in your tracks. Think back to December 2020, and a dozen countries are now going through that or worse, a year after vaccines came on line.
An important nuance to what we’re now seeing in western Europe:
Earlier waves over summer were mainly confined to the young since older groups were protected by the vaccine, but the current wave is rippling through all age-groups, hinting at waning immunity.
This is remarkably similar to what we saw in Israel in the summer, when — just like in western Europe now — around 5 months had passed since most older adults’ second dose.
Of course one difference here is that vaccine coverage in western Europe is now at similar levels in all age-groups, and we would expect that alone to reduce the youth-skewed case distribution.
Nonetheless, seeing strong rises across all age-groups is a problem.
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NEW: as of the end of September, Russia has recorded 753,583 excess deaths over the course of the pandemic.
This is almost 4x its official reported Covid death toll, and is second only to the US in absolute terms among countries with reliable data ft.com/content/f1a270…
• Russia’s vax rates remain stubbornly low, only 33% fully-vaxxed amid widespread mistrust
• Society largely carrying on as normal despite 2k daily excess & 1k daily reported deaths
NEW: there’s been a lot of chatter about why cases, hospitalisations and deaths are much higher in the UK than elsewhere in Western Europe.
I think a lot of the commentary has been overly simplistic, politicised and at-times flat-out wrong.
Let’s see if we can do better:
Yesterday we published a story comparing the situation in the UK vs a selection of Western Europe peers: ft.com/content/345825…
Here are the top-line stats:
• Cases among older people are 7x higher in UK
• Hospital admissions are 6x higher
• Deaths are 3x higher
Not great!
Why so much higher in UK?
Here’s a look at what those countries are doing differently to reduce transmission:
• % of people never wearing masks has rocketed in UK but stayed very low elsewhere
• % of people attending large gatherings in UK is surging way ahead of elsewhere
Folks, if you see anyone quoting Alex Berenson / Joe Rogan on how case rates in England are higher among vaxxed than unvaxxed, that data is incorrect, as explained here.
NEW: people obsess over vaccine uptake stats, eagerly comparing one country to others to see which has jabbed the highest share of its population, but what if I told you many — perhaps most — of those stats are wrong?
Time for a thread on bad Covid data and how it can cost lives
Let’s start with the most obvious sign of the problem:
In several European countries, the share of elderly people who have been vaccinated exceeds 100%.
To state the obvious, this is not possible.
But it’s not just a funny quirk, it has big implications.
In reality these countries won’t have reached 100%, so there are tens of thousands of unvaxxed elderly that are invisible, and no-one is going to visit someone to make sure they’re jabbed if they think everyone is jabbed.