Thread by @meier_oliver

1/ Crunch time on @NATO nuclear sharing discussions in talks on new German government. Short thread on debate, picking up couple of contentious points in this interesting but one-sided @derspiegel analysis: tinyurl.com/yeabnsxk

2/ Terms of debate have recently shifted because @usairforce has announced end of production of F18

https://twitter.com/MIL_STD/status/1456456439761940482?s=20

3/ A need to reassess: F18 was preferred option of outgoing Defense Minister @akk German Ministry @BMVg_Bundeswehr to replace nuclear-capable Tornado. Airforce liked electronic warfighting capabilities of F18 Growler.

https://twitter.com/meier_oliver/status/1252163712980602881?s=20

4/ F15 may be alternative but there has been no Parliamentary debate. F15 currently upgraded to deliver modernized US nuclear-bombs B61-12, to arrive in Europe soon. But who knows how long certification will take? (Honest question) tinyurl.com/yhsahhxh

5/ In any case, article's assessment that "new government will have to make final determination and place the order [for new dual-capable aircraft] by early 2023 at the latest" is questionable - at best.

https://twitter.com/meier_oliver/status/1367795324094451712?s=20

6/ German MoD @Team_Luftwaffe itself has described in detail how *all* Tornado are currently being modernized to stay in air *at least* until 2030. Strangely enough, cost estimates of German Accountability Office @pressebrh still classified. tinyurl.com/ydqk8vog

7/ Appears some time off: scenario where "Germany would risk situation in which Tornados would have to be mothballed before new aircraft can replace them". Proposal for moratorium to enable new Bundestag to debate @NATO nuclear sharing make sense. tinyurl.com/yfkokp2w

8/8 In short: no need to rush decision on Tornado replacement. Commitment to buy new nuclear-capable aircraft wld potentially complicate US-Russia #armscontrol talks while debate terms shifting. Better: 5-yr timeout to take stock and discuss alternatives: armscontrol.org/node/11927

@DrUlrichKuehn @PFuhrhop @ohnemax @agnieszka_mdb @NilsSchmid @HeikoMaas @nouripour @Lambsdorff