"What's the situation in Europe?"
Yes - cases are rising in many places π
But it's difficult to talk about 'Europe' π as one entity right now: as the pandemic continues, things are getting more heterogeneous. π
*What one country can manage, may not be true for another*
1/16
Yes - cases are rising in many places π
But it's difficult to talk about 'Europe' π as one entity right now: as the pandemic continues, things are getting more heterogeneous. π
*What one country can manage, may not be true for another*
1/16
First, we have to look both at absolute case numbers & change in case numbers - some places with high cases may see a decrease but remain high π, others with lower numbers might be seeing a concerning sharp increase π
2/16
ourworldindata.org/covid-cases
2/16
ourworldindata.org/covid-cases
Some, like the UK, seem to be dipping up & down around fairly high numbers, making 2-week changes harder to interpret - will there be another bump..?
Others, like Norway, have recent spike, but are at relatively lower cases. Will current spike be contained as before..?
3/16
Others, like Norway, have recent spike, but are at relatively lower cases. Will current spike be contained as before..?
3/16
But importantly - these case numbers also do not always mean the same thing in each country π«βοΈ
For example, different countries have different measures in place & perhaps more importantly, more or less ability & *willingness* to adapt measures as situations changeπ·π
4/16
For example, different countries have different measures in place & perhaps more importantly, more or less ability & *willingness* to adapt measures as situations changeπ·π
4/16
The long-term cost in lives, hospitalizations, & economy for a country with a sharp rise ("bad") who can respond early π & fast β© might be quite different from a country with a slow rise or long plateau ("not so bad?") who is unable π¦₯ or unwilling π
π» to change course.
5/16
5/16
But we also need to consider how we look at cases: Last year it was easy - cases by age group translated fairly straightforwardly (unfortunately) into hospitalizations & deaths πβ‘οΈπ₯π
Now *cases alone* may not be so bad, if people don't get seriously ill πβ‘οΈπ€§
6/16
Now *cases alone* may not be so bad, if people don't get seriously ill πβ‘οΈπ€§
6/16
This is where many things will start to come into play: previous infections π€ (& when), age groups infected π§π»π΄π», availability & ability of the healthcare system π©π»ββοΈπ, and more...
But *most importantly* - how the vaccine rollout has gone π
7/16
But *most importantly* - how the vaccine rollout has gone π
7/16
Europe spans a huge range in % vaccinated: from ~20% in Ukraine & Belarus π€π», through 30-50% in Russia, Romania, & Croatia βοΈ, right up to almost >80% in Spain, Portugal, & Iceland ππ»!
8/16
ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinatβ¦
8/16
ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinatβ¦
Vaccinations aren't perfect (nothing is, in life) but they're incredibly effective - vaccinated people are less likely to catch & transmit #COVID19 & *critically* - *much* less likely to become seriously ill or die.
9/16
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7β¦
9/16
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7β¦
So countries with higher vaccination rates can expect:
- An easier time containing outbreaks (hopefully fewer restrictions needed) π€π»π§π
- Fewer hospitalizations (less healthcare pressure) π¨π»ββοΈππ»π©Ή
- Fewer deaths π€π»β οΈ
10/16
- An easier time containing outbreaks (hopefully fewer restrictions needed) π€π»π§π
- Fewer hospitalizations (less healthcare pressure) π¨π»ββοΈππ»π©Ή
- Fewer deaths π€π»β οΈ
10/16
A remaining unknown is how this translates *in real life* to what X rise in cases might mean for a country with Y vaccination rate π€·π»ββοΈ
How many cases = maintain optimal care?
How many cases = overburdened health system?
Figuring out the 2nd just before it happens - hard!
11/16
How many cases = maintain optimal care?
How many cases = overburdened health system?
Figuring out the 2nd just before it happens - hard!
11/16
Hospitalizations & deaths always lag behind cases - & data is often slower to come in. We can look at general trends, but for many of the recent rises, we aren't yet seeing the rise in healthcare pressure & death that current trajectories lead to.
12/16
ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalβ¦
12/16
ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalβ¦
So what can Europe do?
Number 1 - keep vaccinating!! Aim as high as possible - you will always fall short.
Focus particularly on getting very high vaccination levels in the elderly & vulnerable - the most likely to have bad outcomes.
13/16
Number 1 - keep vaccinating!! Aim as high as possible - you will always fall short.
Focus particularly on getting very high vaccination levels in the elderly & vulnerable - the most likely to have bad outcomes.
13/16
In different countries, different strategies may be most effective to β¬οΈ vaccination.
I personally support things like vaccine passports π: they mean things can stay open, but decrease overall risk.
We *all* have a part to play in protecting both livelihoods & lives. π€
14/16
I personally support things like vaccine passports π: they mean things can stay open, but decrease overall risk.
We *all* have a part to play in protecting both livelihoods & lives. π€
14/16
Additionally: stay flexible. π§π»ββοΈ
Politicians, don't promise you'll never do X, Y, Z again πΆβπ«οΈ. You back yourself into a corner that could cost lives.
Reduce the chance you'll need harsh measures by being ready & willing to act early π & fast β© as the situation changes.
15/16
Politicians, don't promise you'll never do X, Y, Z again πΆβπ«οΈ. You back yourself into a corner that could cost lives.
Reduce the chance you'll need harsh measures by being ready & willing to act early π & fast β© as the situation changes.
15/16
So many times in the pandemic, people have declared we have it all figured out - #SARSCoV2 keeps showing us otherwise.
Listen to the science, stay grounded, & be ready to react. Implement necessary measures, build trust, & publicly fight misinformation.
And #Vaccinate!
16/16
Listen to the science, stay grounded, & be ready to react. Implement necessary measures, build trust, & publicly fight misinformation.
And #Vaccinate!
16/16
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