Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/4 - France (R-eff=1.17) is rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with foreseen 10,526 cases and 37 deaths/day by Nov 16, if at same pace.
76.7% received 1 dose.

Regional forecast for Nov 10 to Nov 13.
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/4 - 12 mainland Régions are rising/surging in their #COVID19 epid activ, with low mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.20);
Bourg-Fr-Comté=1.24;
Bretag=1.13;
Ctre-V-Loire=1.16;
Corse=1.20;
Grd-Est=1.21;
Hts-de-Fra=1.22;
Normnd=1.21;
Nouv-Aquit=1.18;
Occit=1.17;
Pays-Loire=1.14;
PACA=1.13.

3/4 - One mainland Région is experiencing increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with remaining very low mortality:
Ile-de-France (R-eff=1.09);

4/4 – The five overseas Régions, are above their #COVID19 safety zones, for 7 more days:
Réunion (R-eff=1.40) and [Mayotte=1.29] are surging, very low [no] mort.
Guadeloupe=0.99 is plateauing, no mortality;
Martinique=0.85 and [Guyane=0.75] landing, with high [very low] mort.

5/4 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

6/4 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0