1/9 - Nov 11 to Nov 17 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
Three #COVID19 profiles:
- High circul (>140 cases/100Kpop/7d):
High mortality: UK (R-eff=0.87); GR;AT; IRL; LUX;
Med mort: BE; DE; DK;NL; NO;
Low mort: ICL;CH;
- Med circul: SP; IT;PT;FR;FL, low mort.
- Low circul (<70), low mort: MLT=1.28;SP=1.17; SE=0.96.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
It faces strong waves of #COVID19, with:
- Alarming mortality: BLG (R-eff=0.88); Croatia; Hungary (60.2% 1 dose); Latvia; Lithuania; Moldova=0.87; Romania=0.72; UKR;
- Very high mort: Czechia; Estonia; Russia; Serbia; SLK:
- High mort: Poland (53.7%).
4/9 - Africa -
Libya (R-eff=1.06) is increasing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality (23.4% received 1 dose).
Botswana=1.16 (33.5%), worrying surge, while very low reported mortality;
Underreporting from many countries.
5/9 - Middle-East
Jordan (R-eff=1.12, 39.8% received 1 dose) is increasing in its #COVID19 epid activ, with medium mortality.
Qatar=1.10 is leaving its safety zone.
Iran=0.91, slowly landing, med mort;
Israel=0.88 (73.4%) slowly landing, with very low mort.
6/9 - Asia & Pacific
Laos (R-eff=1.11)/Vietnam=1.21 are rising/surging in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality, while Kazakhstan; Malaysia; Mongolia; Thailand are slowly landing, with medium to high mortality, for 7 more days.
7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
South Korea (R-eff=1.06) is leaving its #COVID19 safety zone, very low mort;
NZ=1.15 is close to leave its safe zone, very low mort;
Singapore (82.0% 1 dose); AUS (77.1%) slowly landing, high [low] mort;
China=1.04, 75 cases/d; Taiwan; JP safe zone.
8/9 - North America -
Canada (R-eff=1.05) is increasing again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, low mort, 80.1% 1 dose: red in BC, Alb; Manit, Ont.; Queb; Orange in Saskatch.
The USA=1.05, increase again at high level, high mort. (68.2%), orange in 4 states, red in 46.
9/9 - Latin America -
Chile=1.11 (87.7% 1 dose); Uruguay=0.98 (80.0%); Colombia=1.11; Bolivia=1.26; Dom Rep=1.11 have left their #COVID19 safety zones.
Belize=0.91, slow landing, alarming mortality;
Brazil=0.97, med mortality.
Mexico; Argentina; Peru: safe
10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

Def:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0

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More from @FLAHAULT

11 Nov
1/4 - Soyons clairs, la communication sur le mode de transmission du coronavirus est un échec cuisant, une faillite collective. Le #SARSCoV2 se transmet quasi-exclusivement par aérosols en lieux clos et mal ventilés dans lesquels nous passons plusieurs heures, souvent sans masque
2/4 - Mais on continue à promouvoir la désinfection des surfaces et le lavage des mains alors qu’on laisse le public se contaminer sans retenue dans des espaces intérieurs que l’on sait être les lieux de contaminations sans chercher à les rendre salubres.
Marche-t-on sur la tête?
3/4 - Il est possible de réduire à zéro le risque de transmission d’un agent microbien en passant d’une concentration de CO2 de 3200 ppm à 600 ppm et ainsi de casser la dynamique épidémique.
Mais on ne mesure pas le CO2, on n’aère pas les pièces, on ne filtre pas l’air intérieur.
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.14) is rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with foreseen 10,275 cases and 34 deaths/day by Nov 17, if at same pace.
76.7% received 1 dose.

Regional forecast for Nov 11 to Nov 14.
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - 12 mainland Régions are rising/surging in their #COVID19 epid activ, with low mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.19);
Bourg-Fr-Comté=1.20;
Bretag=1.12;
Ctre-V-Loire=1.14;
Corse=1.18;
Grd-Est=1.15;
Hts-de-Fra=1.19;
Normnd=1.21;
Nouv-Aquit=1.16;
Occit=1.14;
Pays-Loire=1.14;
PACA=1.11.
3/4 - Ile-de-France (R-eff=1.08) is experiencing an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with remaining very low mortality.
Read 6 tweets
10 Nov
1/18 - “There was a time, at the start of the 20th century, when the field of public health was stronger and more ambitious.”
theatlantic.com/health/archive…
2/18 - “A mixed group of physicians, scientists, industrialists, and social activists all saw themselves as part of this giant social-reform effort that was going to transform the health of the nation.”
3/18 - “They were united by a simple yet radical notion: that some people were more susceptible to disease because of social problems.”
Read 18 tweets
10 Nov
1/9 - Nov 10 to Nov 16 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
Three #COVID19 profiles:
- High circul (>140 cases/100Kpop/7d): UK (R-eff=0.86); GR; AT; LUX high mortality. ICL; CH; [BE; DE; DK; IRL; NL; NO] low [med] mort.
- Med circul: SP; MLT; IT; PT; FR; FL,low mort.
- Low circul (<70), low mort: SP=1.16; SE=0.99.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
It faces strong waves of #COVID19, with:
- Alarming mortality: BLG (R-eff=0.90); Croatia; Hungary; Latvia; Lithuania; Moldova=0.89; Romania=0.74; UKR;
- Very high mort: Czechia; Estonia; Russia; Serbia; SLK:
- High mortality: Poland (53.6% 1 dose).
Read 11 tweets
10 Nov
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.17) is rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with foreseen 10,526 cases and 37 deaths/day by Nov 16, if at same pace.
76.7% received 1 dose.

Regional forecast for Nov 10 to Nov 13.
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - 12 mainland Régions are rising/surging in their #COVID19 epid activ, with low mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.20);
Bourg-Fr-Comté=1.24;
Bretag=1.13;
Ctre-V-Loire=1.16;
Corse=1.20;
Grd-Est=1.21;
Hts-de-Fra=1.22;
Normnd=1.21;
Nouv-Aquit=1.18;
Occit=1.17;
Pays-Loire=1.14;
PACA=1.13.
3/4 - One mainland Région is experiencing increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with remaining very low mortality:
Ile-de-France (R-eff=1.09);
Read 6 tweets
9 Nov
1/9 - Nov 09 to Nov 15 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
Three #COVID19 profiles:
- High circul (>140 cases/100Kpop/7d): UK (R-eff=0.87); GR; AT high mortality. ICL;LUX; CH; [BE;DE;DK; IRL; NL;NO] low [med] mort.
- Med circul: SP;MLT;IT; PT; FR; [FL],low [med] mort.
- Low circul (<70), low mort: SP=1.16;SE=1.09.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
It faces strong waves of #COVID19, with:
- Alarming mortality: Bulgaria; Croatia; Estonia; Latvia; Lithuania; Moldova; Romania (R-eff=0.75); Ukraine;
- Very high mort: Hungary; Russia; Serbia; Slovakia:
- High mortality: Czechia;Poland (53.6% 1 dose).
Read 11 tweets

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