Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/4 - France (R-eff=1.14) is rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with foreseen 10,275 cases and 34 deaths/day by Nov 17, if at same pace.
76.7% received 1 dose.

Regional forecast for Nov 11 to Nov 14.
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/4 - 12 mainland Régions are rising/surging in their #COVID19 epid activ, with low mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.19);
Bourg-Fr-Comté=1.20;
Bretag=1.12;
Ctre-V-Loire=1.14;
Corse=1.18;
Grd-Est=1.15;
Hts-de-Fra=1.19;
Normnd=1.21;
Nouv-Aquit=1.16;
Occit=1.14;
Pays-Loire=1.14;
PACA=1.11.

3/4 - Ile-de-France (R-eff=1.08) is experiencing an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with remaining very low mortality.

4/4 – The five overseas Régions, are above their #COVID19 safety zones, for 7 more days:
Réunion (R-eff=1.27) and [Mayotte=1.22] are surging, no expected mortality.
Guadeloupe=0.97 is plateauing, no mortality;
Martinique=0.90 and [Guyane=0.73] landing, with high [medium] mort.

5/4 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

6/4 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0