Some reflections on #COP26 as we enter the home stretch. (🧵)
1: The US-China announcement
2. Progress on Article 6
3. The draft COP decision
4. Where we go from here
5. Are we making progress, or just "blah blah blah"?
6. Bringing it all back home.
1: The US-China announcement
2. Progress on Article 6
3. The draft COP decision
4. Where we go from here
5. Are we making progress, or just "blah blah blah"?
6. Bringing it all back home.
1/ The US-China announcement is well short of what is ultimately needed—but more than expected and a welcome reset after acrimony of recent months. It builds on April statement in key ways, esp. methane & coal phaseout. And it outlines several concrete areas for collaboration.
2/ Article 6 is the #ParisAgreement’s engine of international cooperation. Good to see Parties at #COP26 making progress on guidance.
AND: We must ensure that markets have high integrity. That means corresponding adjustments for 6.4ERs, and no (or sharply limited) pre-2020 CERs.
AND: We must ensure that markets have high integrity. That means corresponding adjustments for 6.4ERs, and no (or sharply limited) pre-2020 CERs.
3/ The draft #COP26 decision showcases the virtues & limits of the UNFCCC.
It highlights concern, calls for greater ambition, praises collaboration.
But while exhortation is useful, execution is vital. That depends on countries (along with a strong UN transparency framework).
It highlights concern, calls for greater ambition, praises collaboration.
But while exhortation is useful, execution is vital. That depends on countries (along with a strong UN transparency framework).
4/ Going forward, we urgently need countries to deliver on NDCs, not just set more ambitious ones.
To support that, we should plan now for a Global Stocktake in 2023 that promotes shared understanding among govts, business & civil society about what policies are most effective.
To support that, we should plan now for a Global Stocktake in 2023 that promotes shared understanding among govts, business & civil society about what policies are most effective.
5/ Still, in the “Progress vs blah blah blah?” debate I’m firmly on the side of progress.
Pre-Paris, @climateactiontr projected 3.7 ºC of warming by 2100. Now it is 2.4 given 2030 NDCs, 1.8 in optimistic scenario. Not fast enough, but still significant. Every 0.1 degree counts!
Pre-Paris, @climateactiontr projected 3.7 ºC of warming by 2100. Now it is 2.4 given 2030 NDCs, 1.8 in optimistic scenario. Not fast enough, but still significant. Every 0.1 degree counts!
6/ Of course, none of this works without US leadership and action. The infrastructure bill is a good start, but the $555 billion in the #BuildBackBetter, along with strong regulations on methane, cars & the power sector, will be vital to getting the US on track to the 2030 NDC.
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