Even more remarkable: NEW enrollment is only down 2.5% y/y when adjusted for fewer days & fewer states being hosted on the federal exchange...this is AMAZING considering over 2M people already enrolled via the COVID Special Enrollment Period!
Also noteworthy: Active renewals are up 26% year over year, which is good because it suggests more people are wising up to the merits of ACTIVELY re-enrolling vs auto-renewing.
📣 Update: THE GRAPH, Week 1 Edition (only includes 34 states):
Update x2: I forgot to account for MEDICAID EXPANSION in MO/OK! Last year over 100K #ACA exchange enrollees in MO/OK earned less than 138% FPL; all of them have been/will be shifted to Medicaid instead.
For those wondering:
—bubble size indicates county population size
—data is thru yesterday (11/12/21).
Several people are accusing me of “cherry picking” by starting on 6/30/21 instead of going back to the start of the pandemic. It’s hardly breaking news that the first wave in March/April 2010 slammed densely-populated blue areas far heavier than sparsely-populated red areas. 1/
Meanwhile, South Dakota’s Attorney General killed a man, lied about it (he claimed he thought he’d hit a deer even though the man’s glasses were found in his car after his head smashed through the windshield) and is facing impeachment over it. #BothSides!
FWIW, I’m just waiting on Florida county data to be released later this morning before posting the latest red/blue divide update (I have every other state updated already). Stay tuned…
It should be fascinating to see whether the slope or correlation level (R2) of this graph changes starting on Thanksgiving (that's when the first batch of 5-11 yr olds getting their *second* Pfizer shot should start showing up in the data reports)...
As you can see, the partisan correlation rate increased continuously from the moment eligibility for all adults started in mid-March all the way through mid-September...at which point it basically plateaued. It's remained steady ever since.
MICHIGAN FOLKS: I just took my first phone survey of the 2022 election cycle, via an outfit calling itself VRI Research, focused almost exclusively on the bullshit "Secure MI Vote" ballot proposal. michigandems.com/toolkit/declin…
The "Secure MI Vote" proposal is a scam; DO NOT SIGN THE PETITION. The MI GOP's goal is to get enough signatures that they can use a jaw-droppingly stupid loophole in the MI Constitution which would let them pass it into law without allowing @GovWhitmer the ability to veto it.
As for the survey itself, at times it sounded like a push poll, but at other times it got very confusing--several of the ways the arguments given in favor/against the proposal were worded were double-negatives, making it difficult to tell which way the argument was even leaning.